2020-2021 Offseason Thread

[Nick]

MY TOP TEN PROSPECT LIST

As proof that predicting Major League success is a bit of a crapshoot, consider that JT Realmuto wasn't regarded as even a Top Ten Marlins prospect in 2014. The list of top ten catchers overall included Travis d'Arnaud (he did turn out pretty great in time), Josmil Pinto, Max Stassi, Gary Sanchez, JORGE ALFARO, Christian Bethancourt, Tom Murphy, Blake Swihart, Austin Hedges, and Tony Sanchez.

The Marlins list, 1-10, ran Andrew Heaney, Colin Moran, Justin Nicolino, Brian Flynn, Adam Conley, Anthony DeSciafani, Jake Marisnick, Avery Romero, Jose Urena, and Nick Wittgren. Realmuto was twelfth and Austin Barnes was right after him.

While prospect lists are generated by a wide variety of sources, they are remarkably similar each year. That fact suggests that attrilbutes are either easy to identify OR that the sources tend to copy one another. I suspect the latter.

With that in mind, I tend to look at development/progression. For example, Zac Gallen was nowhere near a top ten prospect for the Marlins heading into the 2019 season. However, after a sensational breakout at AAA New Orleans, he joined the Marlins staff and immediately became the team's best starter. He had become the team's very best prospect when he was traded for Jazz Chisholm. Gallen had discovered that "something special" to vault him to stardom.

One-time Fishstripes writer Aram Leighton (I highly recommend his Locked on Marlins podcasts) recently discussed the new Marlins Top Ten list issued by Baseball Prospectus. In addition to routine consensus picks like Bleday, Chisholm, S Sanchez, J Sanchez, E Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, and Max Meyer, BP has introduced the names Peyton Burdick and Nasim Nunez for 2021. I respect that (and don't expect other sources to emulate it) because BP obviously paid attention to what was happening at the Marlins Instuctional Camp in October, where all the team prospects competed against one another. With recent development in mind, I will make my own attempt to rank the talent.

1) Edward Cabrera. I rate him over Sixto Sanchez for two reasons. Cabrera broke out by putting things together in 2019 at Jupiter and Jacksonville. He equaled the excellent performance of Sanchez, who has been amazingly consistent at all minor league levels. That leaves me wondering how much further Edward might develop. He would seem to have the higher ceiling and more physical projection.

2) Sixto. He looks like a solid starter for years to come.

3) Jazz. I tend to look past the poor offensive performance of 2020 because there is so much to love about his future. His defense is crazy good. He has speed and uses it. His bat is so quick that he tends to be over-confident ... and that will change in my opinion. I see a star.

4) Trevor Rogers. I see Blake Snell when I watch Rogers. His control wasn't up to snuff in his inaugural look at the majors, but the talent jumps out of the TV. He's a comer for certain.

5) Max Meyer. I was aboard the Asa Lacy bus on draft day. The best college lefty seemed too good to pass on. However, I'm going to trust management on this one ... until proven wrong.

6, 7, 8) I'm lumping three corner OF/DH types here. JJ Bleday, Peyton Burdick, and Griffin Conine. Burdick and Conine haven't played above Low A, but that's not their fault. All three of these guys showcased the ability to rip at the instructional camp. (Of note, had the Marlins gone with the five-tool talent of CJ Abrams instead of Bleday on 2019 draft day, Abrams would be first on my prospect list.)

9) Nasim Nunez. 70 glove, 70 speed, 70 arm AND the most rapidly improving hit tool according to reports from Instructionl Camp.He's young and soaring.

10) Lewin Diaz. He's been working on a lower hands, quicker stroke in the Dominican Winter League. His defense is Freddie Freeman great at 1B.

Pretty good list Lee. I hadn't heard the positive reports on Nunez, that's good to hear. I still think Neidert will be good, the Covid outbreak hurt him I think more than any player. Only got in 4 games after making the opening day roster. Most of that was mop-up duty. Hard for me to project much movement up and down the list from last season on player's we didn't see. I think you'd have to say that Sixto increased his status as a prospect, and guys like Jesus Sanchez, Monte Harrison and Braxton Garrett hurt their prospect status a little bit. Trevor Rogers you'd have to say bumped up his status a little bit, I think we were all impressed with how good his stuff looked. I think the command issues were a little bit of an anomaly, he didn't have those at the minor league level.

Mine would look lilke:

1. Sixto Sanchez
2. Edward Cabrera
3. JJ Bleday
4. Jazz Chisholm
5. Max Meyer
6. Trevor Rogers
7. Lewin Diaz
8. Nick Neidert
9. Peyton Burdick
10. Griffin Conine

Guys I look to make a jump in 2021: Nasim Nunez, Victor Mesa Jr., Dax Fulton and Josh Roberson.

Jesus Sanchez was the biggest disappointment to me last season. I wouldn't be too worried about his bad numbers, but to me it looked like most of his problems were as simple as that he just couldn't catch up to a good fastball, which will be a real problem at the major league level.

[Lee Stone]

The fact that Jesus Sanchez couldn't even capture regular playing time on his winter league team, combined with his Montesque struggles at the plate for the Marlins, have whacked him out of consideration for me. I'd love to deal him on the undercard of a trade to San Diego for CJ Abrams, along with Alcantara and Hernandez. Cabrera and Neidert could fill the vacancies in the Miami rotation. We need a CF like Abrams (or he could even play 2B) for a contending team in 2022 or 2023.

Gotta love the way the Rays do business! (Well, at least I love it.) Two future rotation guys in Patino and Wilcox and depth in the one area that their system was lacking (catching). And the team saves the money on Snell's contract to help get them through a second Covid season. The only boondoggle left on their payroll is Kevin Kiermaier's $37M over the next three years. They'll even have the choice to eliminate that If they attach him to one or two of their quality but superfluous prospects. Here's hoping that the Marlins front office is paying close attention to how the Rays operate.

[Lee Stone]

I'd like to share an interesting website if you haven't already seen it. It's called Baseball Trade Values. Using a complicated (or at least voluminous) formula, technicians assign a monetary trade value to all current players and many prospects. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/511/

According to the Marlins list, here are the top guys by virtue of current trade value:

S Sanchez $63.6M P Lopez $63 S Alcantara $42.4 Anderson $32.4 Bleday $32.2 Chisholm $29.6 M Meyer $29.3 and on down the line.

Measuring face validity against yesterday's Blake Snell trade: Snell trade value of 52.9. Rays return: Patino 48.2 Wilcox 5.4 Mejia 3.6 and Hunt 3.7 for total of 60.9. giving the Rays the slight edge.

Former Marlins of note: Luis Castillo 114.8 Zac Gallen 74.4 Chris Paddack 52.7 Nick Anderson 23.8

Coulda maybe shoulda been Marlins: CJ Abrams 61.6 and Asa Lacy 35.5

[tjfla]

The fact that Jesus Sanchez couldn't even capture regular playing time on his winter league team, combined with his Montesque struggles at the plate for the Marlins, have whacked him out of consideration for me. I'd love to deal him on the undercard of a trade to San Diego for CJ Abrams, along with Alcantara and Hernandez. Cabrera and Neidert could fill the vacancies in the Miami rotation. We need a CF like Abrams (or he could even play 2B) for a contending team in 2022 or 2023.

Gotta love the way the Rays do business! (Well, at least I love it.) Two future rotation guys in Patino and Wilcox and depth in the one area that their system was lacking (catching). And the team saves the money on Snell's contract to help get them through a second Covid season. The only boondoggle left on their payroll is Kevin Kiermaier's $37M over the next three years. They'll even have the choice to eliminate that If they attach him to one or two of their quality but superfluous prospects. Here's hoping that the Marlins front office is paying close attention to how the Rays operate.

Hate the Rays and they should be moved to Charlotte or Montreal!! With that being said I respect the hell out of what they do and whomever is in charge knows how to run a team

They traded a #1 SP for 2 Future #1 SP and 2 bats that can C. Will they both be C probably NOT especially with TB who likes to play guys at 3 or 4 spots but both guys can hit. Plus now with cash saved they can sign a FA or 2 to help now. SP wont be as good as Snell but should be able to get a solid arm and other help

If we are smart in a year or 2 we will be in the SD boat where we have so much talent we have to trade some of it. They have tried it already this offseason but not much movement-when say so much talent I mean have like 50 guys for 40 man roster. This is SD issue for a year now and why u see them overpaying in EVERY trade. SD got there by drafting BPA and signing as many IFA as possible and developing them

[tjfla]

MY TOP TEN PROSPECT LIST

As proof that predicting Major League success is a bit of a crapshoot, consider that JT Realmuto wasn't regarded as even a Top Ten Marlins prospect in 2014. The list of top ten catchers overall included Travis d'Arnaud (he did turn out pretty great in time), Josmil Pinto, Max Stassi, Gary Sanchez, JORGE ALFARO, Christian Bethancourt, Tom Murphy, Blake Swihart, Austin Hedges, and Tony Sanchez.

The Marlins list, 1-10, ran Andrew Heaney, Colin Moran, Justin Nicolino, Brian Flynn, Adam Conley, Anthony DeSciafani, Jake Marisnick, Avery Romero, Jose Urena, and Nick Wittgren. Realmuto was twelfth and Austin Barnes was right after him.

While prospect lists are generated by a wide variety of sources, they are remarkably similar each year. That fact suggests that attrilbutes are either easy to identify OR that the sources tend to copy one another. I suspect the latter.

With that in mind, I tend to look at development/progression. For example, Zac Gallen was nowhere near a top ten prospect for the Marlins heading into the 2019 season. However, after a sensational breakout at AAA New Orleans, he joined the Marlins staff and immediately became the team's best starter. He had become the team's very best prospect when he was traded for Jazz Chisholm. Gallen had discovered that "something special" to vault him to stardom.

One-time Fishstripes writer Aram Leighton (I highly recommend his Locked on Marlins podcasts) recently discussed the new Marlins Top Ten list issued by Baseball Prospectus. In addition to routine consensus picks like Bleday, Chisholm, S Sanchez, J Sanchez, E Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, and Max Meyer, BP has introduced the names Peyton Burdick and Nasim Nunez for 2021. I respect that (and don't expect other sources to emulate it) because BP obviously paid attention to what was happening at the Marlins Instuctional Camp in October, where all the team prospects competed against one another. With recent development in mind, I will make my own attempt to rank the talent.

1) Edward Cabrera. I rate him over Sixto Sanchez for two reasons. Cabrera broke out by putting things together in 2019 at Jupiter and Jacksonville. He equaled the excellent performance of Sanchez, who has been amazingly consistent at all minor league levels. That leaves me wondering how much further Edward might develop. He would seem to have the higher ceiling and more physical projection.

2) Sixto. He looks like a solid starter for years to come.

3) Jazz. I tend to look past the poor offensive performance of 2020 because there is so much to love about his future. His defense is crazy good. He has speed and uses it. His bat is so quick that he tends to be over-confident ... and that will change in my opinion. I see a star.

4) Trevor Rogers. I see Blake Snell when I watch Rogers. His control wasn't up to snuff in his inaugural look at the majors, but the talent jumps out of the TV. He's a comer for certain.

5) Max Meyer. I was aboard the Asa Lacy bus on draft day. The best college lefty seemed too good to pass on. However, I'm going to trust management on this one ... until proven wrong.

6, 7, 8) I'm lumping three corner OF/DH types here. JJ Bleday, Peyton Burdick, and Griffin Conine. Burdick and Conine haven't played above Low A, but that's not their fault. All three of these guys showcased the ability to rip at the instructional camp. (Of note, had the Marlins gone with the five-tool talent of CJ Abrams instead of Bleday on 2019 draft day, Abrams would be first on my prospect list.)

9) Nasim Nunez. 70 glove, 70 speed, 70 arm AND the most rapidly improving hit tool according to reports from Instructionl Camp.He's young and soaring.

10) Lewin Diaz. He's been working on a lower hands, quicker stroke in the Dominican Winter League. His defense is Freddie Freeman great at 1B.

Trevor Rogers can become Blake Snell OR Andrew Miller. Either way Miami wins

This is a BIG year for Burdick and Conine. Pretty much same player except Burdick is LF RH and Conine is RF LH. I wouldnt put them in Top 10 until they show they can hit in Pcola-they both HAVE to start there because of age.

Nunez is interesting because he can stick at SS. His questions are size and bat

The guys to watch this year are arms taken in the last 2 drafts,Jose Salas,Yiddi Cappe

[Lee Stone]

Meyer and Fulton are focus for me among pitchers ... Vesia too (he was too great in '19 to ignore). Diowill Burgos will be interesting. And of course I'd like to see breakout of Bleday, Burdick, Conine, Encarnacion and Mizner. And will Luis Palacios get crushed after giving up nada in his pro career thus far?

[tjfla]

Not like any of this matters since SD is gonna win the WS next 5 years HAHAH

Signed the Korean kid now gonna trade Cronenworth and prospects to Cubs for Darvish and a C

[Lee Stone]

Not like any of this matters since SD is gonna win the WS next 5 years HAHAH

Signed the Korean kid now gonna trade Cronenworth and prospects to Cubs for Darvish and a C

About that Korean kid. If you look at stats for the KBO, Kim hit almost exactly as well as former sorta major leaguer Preston Tucker..Tucker, of course, couldn't hit a lick in the States. Why would Kim do any better??

[Nick]

About that Korean kid. If you look at stats for the KBO, Kim hit almost exactly as well as former sorta major leaguer Preston Tucker..Tucker, of course, couldn't hit a lick in the States. Why would Kim do any better??

I'm not saying Kim will hit in the states, but for one thing he's only 25 and getting better every year. Also, he's a slick-fielding shortstop that can play all positions on the infield well, so he won't be asked to hit as much as Tucker who is a lumbering corner outfielder.

[Namaste]

Jesus Sanchez was the biggest disappointment to me last season. I wouldn't be too worried about his bad numbers, but to me it looked like most of his problems were as simple as that he just couldn't catch up to a good fastball, which will be a real problem at the major league level.

Very good observation. After I read your post I kept seeing him whiff on a fastball down the middle on repeat in my head.

[Todd]

Kim put up the numbers in the KBO as a 19 year old that Tucker did as a 29 year old.

Another solid observation and comp by Lee Stone.

[fish16]

we need to make a run for willson contreras. Give them young SP and dont look back.

[Lee Stone]

we need to make a run for willson contreras. Give them young SP and dont look back.

Here's all you need to fashion a trade for the last two arb years of Contreras. Baseball Market Values places a $28.3 figure on the catcher's value.

Here's the valuations of all the current Marlins and prospects. See what you come up with in terms of an offer that might intrigue the Cubs. The numbers should add up to something close to that $28 million. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/511/

[tjfla]

we need to make a run for willson contreras. Give them young SP and dont look back.

Could probably make a run at Wilson AND others if interested. We better be into Contreras!!!

Question is what they would want? Seem to want controllable arm-Elieser? OF bat-Monte? Burdick? DSL guys-Breidy? Eury? other arms?

I would be up for

Miami-Contreras
Cubs-Elieser.OF like Monte or another,2 DSL arms like a Doble/Leon

[tjfla]

Here's all you need to fashion a trade for the last two arb years of Contreras. Baseball Market Values places a $28.3 figure on the catcher's value.

Here's the valuations of all the current Marlins and prospects. See what you come up with in terms of an offer that might intrigue the Cubs. The numbers should add up to something close to that $28 million. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/511/

Not really-Cubs are looking to make salary dump deals NOT market value deals. This is why its the perfect time to strike-u can get good value on guys

We should be all over Contreras and much like SD shouldnt have to pay a crazy price with top guys!! We have more than enough things to get a deal done IF we really want to(WE SHOULD WANT TOO!!!!) I would even overpay by sending them Alfaro just so they have someone to C