Jayson Stark: Marlins Expected to Keep Josh Johnson

[Swifty]

Is it a natural thing from 27 - 28, though?

[Mainge]

Yes.

[Swifty]

Do you have any literature on that?

[Bobbob1313]

This isn't after tommy john. He had some shoulder inflammation last year that ended up making him miss most the season and he never even got surgery for it so it's sort of a weird situation because we really had no clue what exactly what the problem was. And he came back this year with lower velocity on his fastball and his stuff wasn't as sharp as it use to be.

What's fun about this is that his velocity dropped more from '10 to '11 than from '11 to '12, but nobody cared because his BABIP was .230.

He is 95% of the pitcher we expected him to be, as far as peripherals go. I'll bet heavily on a bounceback.

[Mainge]

Do you have any literature on that?

Not offhand but you can do your own research on fangraphs.

[CrimsonCane]

Is it a natural thing from 27 - 28, though?

Hasn't it been researched that a pitcher's prime is likely earlier in their career than previously considered?

[Swifty]

That's another way of phrasing the same question I was asking. I have no idea. I assumed Mainge did.

[Erick]

What's fun about this is that his velocity dropped more from '10 to '11 than from '11 to '12, but nobody cared because his BABIP was .230.

Nobody cared because he lasted 60 innings and ended up on the DL for the rest of the year. People were also expecting his velocity to increase as the year continued last year because velocity tends to get better as the year goes on. I recall plenty of people questioning why his velocity was down last year. Now, he's lost another mph added to the mph he lost last year.

[Mainge]

That's another way of phrasing the same question I was asking. I have no idea. I assumed Mainge did.

I do.

[HUGG]

I feel like if he stays healthy all year and continues to pitch the way he's pitched for the last couple months, there's no reason not to re-sign him.

I don't think the offers are going to get any better.

Plus (and this part doesn't matter one bit to me, but still true), wouldn't be the worst move ever from a fanbase/trying to sell tickets for 2013 perspective.

[Namaste]

Correct.

The Marlins are a Josh Johnson/Giancarlo Stanton trade away from having 850 people a night show up for weekday games.

[nny]

Yeah I don't have the article to link to but I remember reading that basically you're peak velo is at age 20ish and it goes down from there. Outside factors can still change that (TJ Surgery, mechanic change)
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I'm also on the extend JJ bandwagon. Rusty at beginning of season but 3.18 ERA last 15 starts and all of his peripherals line up outside of BABIP.

[dim]

Count me in on extend JJ. I think other than finding a starting CF for next season, this offseason should be focused on extending both Stanton and JJ.

[Miamarlin21]

I know Lou had an idea of a ballpark number for Giancarlo (can't remember off the top of my head,) but I do remember reading fangraphs speculating $70 over six years.

[lou]

I know Lou had an idea of a ballpark number for Giancarlo (can't remember off the top of my head,) but I do remember reading fangraphs speculating $70 over six years.

I haven't done it lately, but that's about right. Cargo got $80ish and I believe they will be around same amount service time end of year. Cargo of course was playing CF at the time and had a .950 OPS or whatever that year, so maybe Stanton slots a little lower but not much. Ballpark $70 is fine +/- $1 million each of the 6 seasons on average