Selling Time: Marlins Trade Deadline Discussion

[Swifty]

I've always been a fan of his. Since he put away the anxiety issues, he's been basically the same guy year in and year out (with really last year being the closest thing to a disappointing season, but that's because he made 25 starts instead of his usually 31-33).

I feel like a 30 year old Greinke on a 4-5 year deal is probably a better fit/complement to Buehrle (since I guess we're kind of building the rotation around him now, right?) and also gives us built in "JJ isn't JJ" insurance.

Ultimately, this is all about a tremendous assumption that the Marlins are trying to make a long-term commitment to winning and not a "well, we tried" kind of thing and going back to 2009 kind of years. I like Greinke, I don't think there's any contract he'll be offered that will be absolutely absurd (since he won't go to Boston/New York), and if you can get that kind of "value" (yes, I know it'll still be around $100 mil, but we were willing to give CJ Wilson $120 mil) it's really a move worth making.
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Center field is the bat, it's not Soriano or Swisher.

They will have legitimate cash next year if they blow out Nolasco and Infante. Even if they eat the salary this year, just get it off the books for 2013. Some contender will do it once all the trade dominos start falling. More pitching for Anibal, Choate, and C. Lee, good times. I can't see them not getting a legitimate young starting pitcher somewhere among those 5, and if the rest is just moderate relievers and 2013 salary relief, awesome. That's all they need to do.

Upton's a Beinfest guy, and I've made posts before about how I really believe he's our offseason move, but I really really really really hope that we have sights on "another" bat. Upton's not going to fix what's wrong with this team. Even when Hanley was "good" and Stanton was healthy teams were still not pitching to them at all. Upton does nothing to address that (career OPS+ = 104, career SLG = .414).

Get Upton, but please get another bat.

[Mainge]

I just think it's weird that he's the guy to blow it out for. He's definitely good but nothing special. Heck Anibal Sanchez has a lower career ERA.

Supposedly the Brewers are offering 5yrs/100m so I'm assuming it'll take more than that. More than 20 million annually for Grienke's non-peak years would be a mistake, IMO.

[lou]

Thing with BJ is

2007 4.5
2008 5.0
2009 2.4
2010 4.0
2011 4.1
2012 1.1 through 79 games

That's WAR. 4/6 years he has been awesome, and he turns 28 in a month. He will be valued lower by some teams looking at Bourn and Melky's batting average, Victorino's all around consistency, and BJ is having his worst year of the last 6. I don't think BJ will be cheap by any means, but he might be there for the taking on 5/$60-70 million, which is an absolute steal for a mostly 4 WAR player in his prime. That's worth the gamble. He's perfect for that ballpark and this team. Bourn is 2 years older, but he would be great too. He has 4 years in a row over a 4 WAR.

I don't think they'd get another "big" bat, but I do think they would get a 1 year left fielder to help out Ruggiano, who would be a top the 2013 depth chart assuming Infante is moved and Bonifacio takes over 2B for good, and get a better bench then Murphy, Cousins, Coghlan, etc. Starting lineup would be "is what it is" getting a CF. Someone in LF for 1 year until Yelich is for sure ready is all they could and would do.
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I just think it's weird that he's the guy to blow it out for. He's definitely good but nothing special. Heck Anibal Sanchez has a lower career ERA.

Supposedly the Brewers are offering 5yrs/100m so I'm assuming it'll take more than that. More than 20 million annually for Grienke's non-peak years would be a mistake, IMO.

I agree. That would wreck havoc with long term payroll with the Reyes/Buerhle backloading and impending Stanton doom. Even the arbitration buyout is going to create huge salaries. They have nothing longterm at C, 2B, 3B, and CF (maybe Realmuto becomes a legitimate catcher), but a lot of hope for the rotation. Money needs to be spent attacking the lineup longterm. Plus, bats over pitching is always a smarter free agent investment.

Pitching at the deadline, buyout Stanton, buy a big CF, buy 1 year veterans to round out LF, 4th starter, bench, and bullpen if necessary. All would fit into same payroll parameters as 2012, and pray to god fans "get" how that makes them no worse a team short term and much better long term.

[Swifty]

Mainge, the thing I've heard about Greinke is he doesn't "want" that kind of scrutiny (he rejected a trade and a $100 million extension from Washington before being sent to Milwaukee). Once that kind of money starts getting thrown around, yeah, I can see previous morals getting compromised.

But, the things we do know about Greinke (significant anxiety issues, a desire to be as comfortable and under the radar as possible, being a Florida native) all seem to at least suggest a fit here rather than the traditional $100 million+ on a pitcher team.

Lou, I understand Upton's value, I just don't know if I can get behind him being the "fix" we need. I'd still gladly take him.

[Mainge]

hey have nothing longterm at C, 2B, 3B, and CF (maybe Realmuto becomes a legitimate catcher),

Hasn't Yelich been playing CF?

[Erick]

IF we still have money to spend (and that's a big if, we've got attendance issues, renewal fears, etc) you "park" it in one year/short term deals this offseason (unless Greinke hits the market, then blow it out) and save the pitching money for NEXT offseason when the market figures to be much more saturated with difference making guys (Santana, Lincecum jump to mind).

This offseason should be all about adding a bat. If we clear enough cash, and the Cubs want a guy like Hand for Soriano (plus $ eaten) that's a good offseason. If we get Swisher on a 2 or 3 year deal (though I just can't see how the Yankees let him leave, $189 million target payroll in 2014 or not) that's a good offseason.

Pitching's the problem, but there isn't a solution in free agency, and we don't have the pieces to allow us to make a trade for a guy who solves it (well, I guess we do, but trading Yelich/Fernandez doesn't help big picture that much unless it's something LOL worthy like Verlander or Kershaw coming back).

If we have all intentions of spending to keep the core around and seeing if we can win in the JJ/Hanley/Stanton/Buehrle/Reyes years, it's offense in 2013, pitching in 2014 and then some really tough calls (hopefully) in 2015.

I am not a fan of any of these ideas.

[Miamarlin21]

Hasn't Yelich been playing CF?

Yes.

[lou]

Yea he is out there, but I don't think any scout or the Marlins see him there at the MLB level. Every report I have seen says an average arm at best not suited for CF, and while he is quick(er) and takes good routes and improving, not the best range to cover CF. Throw in that ballpark, doesn't sound like an idea to be counted on to me.

[Swifty]

That he's still playing there now is slightly encouraging since when we drafted him the thought was he may well be a 1B by now.

[Mainge]

I don't remember that being the thought.

[Swifty]

I don't remember that being the thought.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/fish_...an-yelich.html

Marlins Draft 1B/OF Christian Yelich -- Scouting Reports, Video


For the third time in the past four years, the Marlins used their first-round draft pick on a position player, first baseman/outfielder Christian Yelich of Westlake (Calif.) High School. Jim Fleming, head of player development and scouting for the Marlins, said the organization would groom Yelich as an outfielder in order to utilize his speed.

Here's what Baseball America has to say about Yelich:

Yelich first gained widespread scouting attention in the summer of 2008 when he put on an eye-opening batting practice display with wood bats at a Major League Scouting Bureau showcase at the Urban Youth Academy in Compton, Calif. Bryce Harper overshadowed Yelich that evening, driving several balls off the batter's eye or into the parking lot, but Yelich held his own and has produced other highlights since then, such as the long, opposite-field homer he hit in 2009 off Tyler Skaggs, an Angels supplemental first-rounder last year. Tall (6-foot-3), angular and projectable and possessing a sweet lefthanded swing, Yelich is far more athletic than the usual lumbering first-base prospect, with above-average speed. He consistently runs a 6.75 second 60-yard dash in showcase events, and shows both range and a nifty glove around the bag. That kind of athleticism usually signals a position change, but Yelich has a below-average throwing arm that limits him to first. A Miami recruit, Yelich does not project to have the profile power organizations prefer in a first baseman, but he should develop into an above-average hitter with fringe-average power, along the lines of a James Loney or Casey Kotchman.

Baseball America had Yelich listed as the top-ranked first baseman available in the draft, but had him pegged as a "second-round talent." ESPN.com's Keith Law had Yelich ranked 26th overall on his list of the top 100 prospects.

Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/fish_...#storylink=cpy

[tjfla]

The thinking has been get a stopgap CF in a trade or a young one in a major deal

Quintin Berry has been mention if Infante goes to Detroit with Boner moving to 2B,our OF would then be LoMo,Berry,Stanton with Ruggiano as #4. Year or 2 down the line Yelich will be ready to play CF. Like lou said tho,while quick many people seem him as a LF with LoMo moving to 1B soon so???

The best option might be trade Hanley OR Sanchez to Boston and try for Jackie Bradley Jr in the deal. While he is atleast a year away,its not like we are gonna be anything good if we blow up the team

Our issue is we really don't have a CF in the system no matter

[Mainge]

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/fish_...an-yelich.html

That's a lot different than what you said.

[Miamarlin21]

I don't understand why they would trade Infante for a 27-year-old outfielder who just figured it out. I mean, Q is a great guy and a friend (and I'd be happy if we traded for him) I just assumed we would go in a different direction if we traded Infante (for prospects.)

[tjfla]

I don't understand why they would trade Infante for a 27-year-old outfielder who just figured it out. I mean, Q is a great guy and a friend (and I'd be happy if we traded for him) I just assumed we would go in a different direction if we traded Infante (for prospects.)

It would'nt be a straight up deal. Would be like Infante and Cousins/Peterson/Coghlan(One like that) OR Infante,one like that and a SP FOR Berry and prospects

I am not even saying that we want Berry,its that we seem to want a ML ready OF in a deal and Detroit has him