Marlins Strength of Schedule So Far......

[Namaste]

I got into a discussion with this douchebaggy friend of mine and he told me we had the 3rd easiest schedule so far in 2012.

Where do we rank? I don't trust this asshole.

[Metes]

In terms of opponents' win percentage, we're middle of the pack; .500

I think your friend is referring to B-R's SOS metric, which calculates opponents "runs above average" per game. We're 3rd worst in that

Still, I hate both arguments to suggest that we're getting lucky

[Mainge]

We've probably been a little lucky.

[Metes]

We're 3 games ahead of our pythag record, so yes we have been lucky

Still, Stanton didn't get started until May and JJ was atrocious, so I don't think that luck means we're in for some regression

[Namaste]

Mainge, even taking JJ and Heath's WHIP into consideration?

I'm def not saying we've been unlucky.

[Mainge]

We're 3 games ahead of our pythag record, so yes we have been lucky

Still, Stanton didn't get started until May and JJ was atrocious, so I don't think that luck means we're in for some regression

Mhm. Plus I fixed Hanley. And Buck can't hit .160 over the next two months (can he?) Ditto with Chris Petersen or Gaby.
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Mainge, even taking JJ and Heath's WHIP into consideration?

I'm def not saying we've been unlucky.

What Metes said basically.

[Metes]

Hm. B-R didn't have monthly splits so I did my own excel analysis of the month of May.

Our record was 21-8 (best in baseball)
131 runs scored, 115 against (+.55 runs/gm)
Pythag record should have been 16-13

So yeah, we were lucky

[Namaste]

So we should be pretty pumped if we go 16-13 in June.

[Metes]

It would be a good month

We'd have a 1.00 WHIP

[Mainge]

So we should be pretty pumped if we go 16-13 in June.

I'd say anytime you win more games than you lose in a month, it's a good thing.

winning 55% (what 16-13 is) of your games every month gets you to 90 wins.

[Namaste]

I'd say anytime you win more games than you lose in a month, it's a good thing.

winning 55% (what 16-13 is) of your games every month gets you to 90 wins.

55% is good in a lot of things.... Baseball records, poker win rates, sports betting win rates........

I'm going to change my username to 55 Cent.

[Erick]

Mainge, even taking JJ and Heath's WHIP into consideration?

I'm def not saying we've been unlucky.

To be fair, nothing about Heath Bell's #'s suggest he's been unlucky.
He's just sucked this year. Hopefully his last 3 outings are the beginning of something better.

[Omar]

The Herald touched on the schedule strength a bit this morning in regards to June. Here's how the NL East shapes up for the upcoming month:

Mets - .543 winning percentage against
Braves - .541
Marlins - .535
Phillies - .526
Nats - .525

[CrimsonCane]

Hm. B-R didn't have monthly splits so I did my own excel analysis of the month of May.

Our record was 21-8 (best in baseball)
131 runs scored, 115 against (+.55 runs/gm)
Pythag record should have been 16-13

So yeah, we were lucky

I use it all the time, but the pyth record isn't sacrosanct. It's simply a better estimate of future performance than actual W-L records. There's a margin of error, and it's going to be higher right now because we've only played part of the season. I'm not saying we haven't been lucky, but being 4-5 games above your pyth record doesn't automatically mean that luck is the culprit.

[Bobbob1313]

Also, what Metes posted means we were still two games worse than our pythag record during April. These things have a way of balancing out. If you think we were lucky in May, you have to also think we were unlucky in April.