We Can Compete for the Division, Amirite?

[lou]

I'd quasi-scientifically judge this offseason as, and I base this off reasonable WAR projections

72 wins 2011
+4 Jose Reyes for 130 games
+3 Johnson pitching 25+ starts
+3 Hanley remembering he can OPS .850
+2 Heath Bell and changing peoples bullpen roles/Youth Improvement
+2 Morrison, because he is going to hit
+1 Not having Hanley at SS Defensively
+1 Stanton, because he's the natural
+1 Buck, Infante, Coghlan, and bench being better, because they just have to be
+0 for Buerhle, as he effectively 'pushes' with Vazquez resulting in no gain
+0 Anibal, Nolasco, and Gaby cumulatively push all their production
-1 Bonifacio, because he won't be this good again

88, with 80% seasons from Reyes and Johnson and no major injures.

One area I did not mention above is the 5th starter. It's nothing ground breaking, but I think getting a real solid 3rd starter could add 3+ wins and put this team in a really nice 88-94 win range, based on 1 run games and no devastating injuries.

And I'd say JJ is a 1, Anibal and Buerhle are rock solid great 3s, Nolasco should be a 2 but is a 4, and Volstad is barely a 5.

I like the team. But they are that "one guy away." or Fielder/Willingham/trade Morrison for SP away.

[Bobbob1313]

I'm starting to think calling him a No. 2 is underselling him a tiny bit. He'd be the first starter on a decent number of (admittedly bad) teams.

[Swifty]

At least I'm not super crazy, he's throwing his fastball a lot less.

[Metes]

Threw his slider a full mph higher in '11

[lou]

I'm starting to think calling him a No. 2 is underselling him a tiny bit. He'd be the first starter on a decent number of (admittedly bad) teams.

I have never been of the view to take the top 150 SP in baseball and rank them "top 30 are 1s, next 30 are 2s" and so on. I don't think there is anywhere near 30 #1s in baseball, so this is just a terminology issue I think.

Without looking at the lists, I'd venture to say there are maybe a dozen aces out there, 15-20 twos, 30-40 3s, and then the floodgates open of inning eaters, youth, and the not so good.

I think thats a more appropriate way to value SP than just consider the top 30 "aces." I know its very subjective and the whole goal is to rank everyone the same and be objective, but I just dont view it that way. Halladay is so much better than guy # 28, they cannot be in the same category. But a guy 10-12 away, maybe.

[Bobbob1313]

Even by your strict standards, he's been a solid No. 2 over the last two years. And his DIP stats point to the possibility of moving into top-20 range. He's been really, really good.

I'm buying into him. Anibal for Opening Day!

[lou]

Hey, you might be right even based on a more curtailed rankings system, but I'm just saying. Anibal is clearly a top 50 starting pitcher in baseball, but that still might not be a 2 if we really started "tiering" guys and see whose comparable to who.

But it doesn't really matter. I'm really happy we have him, and think the problem is replacing Volstad with another rock solid Anibal type pitcher, like Oswalt or Edwin.

[Jay]

Anibal had a significant improvement in K/9, his BB/9 and H/9 went down and he just pitched 195+ innings in back to back seasons. The only thing that he didn't improve with was allowing home runs and balking. I just noticed balks listed on his page. He gave up 5 last year, I doubt that happens again. He is without a doubt a number 3 on most clubs, a number 2 with at least half the league, and a number 1 on the really bad teams. I think Anibal is vastly underrated.