Stark: Marlins Could Be Big Players This Off-Season UPDATE: All Big Names In Play

[Erick]

^That's what I've been trying to say, only he said it much better.

For what it's worth, I think Edwin Jackson would be pretty cool. I said this a couple months ago as well.

[Bobbob1313]

Pappelbon averages 3.4 rWAR per year since he started closing.

Anibal Sanchez has 3.4 rWAR this year with 3.67 ERA in 191.1 IP, for reference.

I'm also more than ok with Sanabia as #5 (Although he is certainly better as depth because depth is always better).

I'd rather have the starter given our situation, but it's not ludicrous. And there aren't all that many SP on the market that can put up a three and a half WAR.
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CJ Wilson, Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson, Mark Buehrle, maybe Javy V. Kuroda will only play for west coast I think, Oswalt will probably sign with philly, Buehrle probably with chicago (Maybe ozzie can lure him though? but doubt), Javy V would retire.

That leaves Wilson and Ed Jackson. So we'd have to sign the only two SP that really are available to us to best that.

That's if we're talking about Papelbon costing the same as whoever else we could get. Papelbon's going to get a bigger contract yearly than almost any of those starters. I think there are clearly better options to spend that money on.

Especially when you consider that Fangraphs WAR has him for 2.4 WAR per year. So depending on which end of that he falls, it certainly becomes easier.

[nny]

Papelbon's going to get a bigger contract yearly than almost any of those starters.

I severely doubt that.
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And I'd lean a lot more towards rWAR for a pitcher with a decent inning size over fWAR. Elite relievers normally beat their FIP.

[Bobbob1313]

I severely doubt that.

He won't get a bigger one than Wilson, but I think he'll be right around what he's making now, which will put him in the same range as what I expect Beurhle, Jackson, and Oswalt get.

Papelbon earned $27.6MM over his three arbitration years. He's making $12 million now. Maybe he'll end up having to take a pay cut, but I'd be really surprised if he makes less than $10 million a year.

Whatever you want to say about the worth of "elite" closers, Jonathan Papelbon is certainly in that group. And they almost never become free agents, so there's not a lot of history, but history suggests he'd get at least 3/30 and probably more. He's going to get a big yearly paycheck. It's going to be in the neighborhood of those starters.
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So going by the arbitration estimates lou posted, updated with Infante:

C John Buck $6,500,000
1B Gaby Sanchez $430,000
2B Omar Infante $4,000,000
3B Matt Dominguez $410,000
SS Hanley Ramirez $15,000,000
LF Logan Morrison $420,000
RF Mike Stanton $420,000
CF Emilio Bonifacio $2,000,000
B Brett Hayes $420,000
B Bryan Petersen $420,000
B Chris Coghlan $600,000
B
B

SP Josh Johnson $13,750,000
SP Ricky Nolasco $9,000,000
SP Anibal Sanchez $8,000,000 (rough projection)
SP
SP
RP Edward Mujica $1,500,000 (rough projection)
RP Randy Choate $1,500,000
RP Ryan Webb $430,000
RP Mike Dunn $420,000
RP Steve Cishek $420,000
RP Jose Ceda $420,000
RP

We're at: $66,060,000

So depending on what estimate you go by, we're going to have anywhere from ~$19,000,000 to ~34,000,000 to spend.

Fun times ahead, boys.
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And I'd lean a lot more towards rWAR for a pitcher with a decent inning size over fWAR. Elite relievers normally beat their FIP.

His FIP is 2.61, his ERA is 2.27. It amounts to about 15 runs total, so the difference would be about a quarter of a win per year, so he'd be at 2.65 WAR per year. Not a significant difference in his case.

[nny]

I expect he gets in the 10-12m range yeah. I don't expect any of the 4 SP to make under that, which is what you stated (I think they'll be in the 12-15m range, no way they get under 10)

And my point wasn't that we should sign him over them (I said the exact opposite, actually), but that our option to sign two SP is basically only Wilson and Jackson. If we don't sign both of them, Papelbon is better than the next tier SP we could sign.

Should also do IF/CF before signing him too, but it's same situation: Aramis Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and that's it unless you think Beltran can still man CF.

Now same thing with Pap's, other CL aren't on his tier expect maybe Health Bell. But I think it's silly to say we should focus on signing back of the rotation starters and average position players before signing one of the elite players on the free agent market. He shouldn't be our focus, no, but a fallback plan.

Also, the second we sign a Type A FA, we should get the Juan Cruz's of the world, the guys stuck with a Type A status so no one will sign so we get him for less $$$. We start losing 3rd round pick at that point.

[lou]

Papelbons career WARs by year: 3.2, 2.2, 3.0, 2.0, 1.2, 2.8. I don't know where this 3.4 came from, but that's going to be tough to project.

Buerhle's lowest WAR in the last 5 years is 3.2. CJ is 4.4/5.7 since he started starting. Ed Jackson is 3.5, 3.8. 3.8 amazingly enough.

We're talking the low year for one of the starters is Papelbons best possible situation. On a risk/reward spectrum, this is pretty intense for me. Papelbon would need to throw 65+ innings at 2.2 era ball. If he "balloons" to 2.8 (which is pretty much a random 3 run HR at some point in the year, which makes me real uneasy to use bullpen WAR as compared to hitters/sp), you're losing value for what that is worth.

And this is ignoring, using WAR to discuss guy A and B in free agency is assuming the Marlins only have replacement level options. I think it's likely to say, the cumulation of internal Marlins 7th RP spot versus internal Marlins 5th SP spot (i.e. what is being actually replaced), is a better baseball player, so we're getting even more value adding a SP because we're starting so much lower on what we already have.

I get that the argument is Papelbon would be a "fallback" option to a starter, but I think it's a very distant fallback where you have lost every other "good" free agent out there.

[Beef]

Don't forget Ozzie Guillen in all these payroll projections, because he is likely making a nice chunk of money

[Ralph]

What do y'all think of Carlos Zambrano with the Cubs eating most of his salary? He's pals with Ozzy and the Cubs are gonna get rid of him in the offseason. I think he'd be worth the risk as the #5.

[HUGG]

If they're eating a significant chunk, absolutely. He's an upgrade from Volstad at his 11 numbers and Guillen might get him back on track.

[Omar]

If he's cheap, all aboard the Fun Train

[Erick]

What do y'all think of Carlos Zambrano with the Cubs eating most of his salary? He's pals with Ozzy and the Cubs are gonna get rid of him in the offseason. I think he'd be worth the risk as the #5.

Entertaining.

[Jay]

I think Paps will have a deal in place before the team would decide to give up on acquiring starters and move to upgrading the bullpen.

Zambrano would be better than internal options.

[MiamiHomer]

@cst_cubs: Ramirez on whether Marlins more attractive to him as free agent w/ Ozzie: "of course. I wouldn't mind going there and playing"

It has begun.

[Miamarlin21]

Someone is gonna get in trouble for tampering. Stop talking to people.






/notserious






//maybe?

[Big Z]

SAN DIEGO — Despite Aramis Ramirez’s willingness to put the Florida Marlins on a short list of teams he’d consider signing with as a free agent, the Marlins are more likely to look at internal options, according to a source close to the Marlins.

New manager Ozzie Guillen, who has told colleagues he’s open to taking family friend Carlos Zambrano to Miami next season, wouldn’t comment on the likelihood of trying to acquire Ramirez, Zambrano or even his longtime White Sox horse, Mark Buehrle.

But he told the Sun-Times’ Joe Cowley, “They’ve already asked me about a few [Chicago players], yes. But I’m going to let them ask me. I’m not going to say, ‘Hey, bring that guy.’

“But it’s nice when you see and hear from guys that they want to play for you. People want to play for Miami. That’s a plus. We’ll see.’’

-Chicago SunTimes.