An Early Look Into Free Agency For 2012

[Beef]

He was good before things changed. It was a fact. Science

[HUGG]

He doesn't fit what the organization wants from CFers

The only evidence I've seen over the last few years is that what the organization wants from CFers is being a shitty baseball player.

So, yeah, Stanton doesn't fit the mold.

[lou]

I didn't read all the bantering, but if we're talking off season strategy

Team Concerns
-3 year contract anibal
-2 year arbitration buyout to bonifacio (leaving his last arb year up in the air to see if he repeats. Deal would be worth it even if hes just a bench guy)
-5-7 year arbitration/free agency buyout stanton. He is worth it, not yet for Morrison
-keep nunez, mujica, and badenhop in arb, let sanches and hensley go via dfa/trade (rest of pen is choate, dunn, webb, and cishek)
-resign Dobbs 1-2 years
-DFA or Trade Volstad, West

Free Agency Concerns

-CJ Wilson/Mark Buerhle/Wandy Rodriguez/Other lefty for 3-4 years, trade James, Hand, Rasmussen, who freaking ever besides Yelich or Dominguez, to get this done if need be
-Ozzie Guillen
-Livan Hernandez/Other Vagabond 5th Starter, (Sanabia/Hand/James as the 6/7/8)
-premium 4th/platoon outfielder to match with coghlan in CF (that can hit lefties), and provide defense.
-premium platoon 3B to help Dominguez along with Dobbs
-Some do everything "Amezaga, Bonifacio" type, as Boner is shifted to 2B starter

two starting pitchers, four bench guys, and keep the rest of the team. easy.

[Bobbob1313]

-premium 4th/platoon outfielder to match with coghlan in CF (that can hit lefties), and provide defense.

Mike Cameron has a career .853 OPS against LHP and and last three years of .954, 1.128, and would be similarly good this year if not for a .150 BABIP as he's still walking and hitting for power vs LHP.

Plus, this team brought him in for leadership-y things, so maybe this means we could get rid of Helms.

I like this.

[Erick]

I didn't read all the bantering, but if we're talking off season strategy

Team Concerns
-3 year contract anibal
-2 year arbitration buyout to bonifacio (leaving his last arb year up in the air to see if he repeats. Deal would be worth it even if hes just a bench guy)
-5-7 year arbitration/free agency buyout stanton. He is worth it, not yet for Morrison
-keep nunez, mujica, and badenhop in arb, let sanches and hensley go via dfa/trade (rest of pen is choate, dunn, webb, and cishek)
-resign Dobbs 1-2 years
-DFA or Trade Volstad, West

Free Agency Concerns

-CJ Wilson/Mark Buerhle/Wandy Rodriguez/Other lefty for 3-4 years, trade James, Hand, Rasmussen, who freaking ever besides Yelich or Dominguez, to get this done if need be
-Ozzie Guillen
-Livan Hernandez/Other Vagabond 5th Starter, (Sanabia/Hand/James as the 6/7/8)
-premium 4th/platoon outfielder to match with coghlan in CF (that can hit lefties), and provide defense.
-premium platoon 3B to help Dominguez along with Dobbs
-Some do everything "Amezaga, Bonifacio" type, as Boner is shifted to 2B starter

two starting pitchers, four bench guys, and keep the rest of the team. easy.

I disagree with some of this.

1. I don't like the idea of letting Clay Hensley go. Is he going to be too expensive or something? What happens if he finishes the year out giving consistent quality starts? He could be a 5th starter next year. Worst case scenario, you move him back to the pen again. Why does Hopper get arb., while Hensley gets DFA'd? I'm guessing it has to be some sort of expected money differential, but you're way better at payroll estimations so I'll let you explain that to me.

2. Where did the trade James, Hand, whatever it takes comment come from? Is that for Wandy? Because Wilson and Buehrle can just be acquired as free agents.

3. Buehrle AND Livan? I understand they eat up innings, but for that, I'd rather keep a guy like Hensley and try that out or something. I feel like that would end up being too much money for a couple of starters who rely way too much on their defense. A lot of innings, but they're not necessarily guaranteed to be quality innings.

4. That's not necessarily what I'd like to see in CF, but if we're going with Coghlan/platoon righty, I agree with bobbob when he says that Mike Cameron is more than likely capable of filling that role. If that's the plan, they just need to bring back Cameron for another year. He's actually probably the only guy available in free agency who fills such a role, so I'm cool with him.

5. Not a big fan, but I could see Infante coming back to play 2B + Bonifacio at 3B. Considering Dominguez for next year just seems like rushing his development. He hasn't shown any signs of being big-league ready this year.

[lou]

Mike Cameron has a career .853 OPS against LHP and and last three years of .954, 1.128, and would be similarly good this year if not for a .150 BABIP as he's still walking and hitting for power vs LHP.

Plus, this team brought him in for leadership-y things, so maybe this means we could get rid of Helms.

I like this.

Sure. If the organization thinks he will revert to careerish numbers and not the nightmarish recent history, I got no problem. It could be ok, I'm a little weary of his age though even though he is a freak athletically.

[Cambridge]

Hensley's peripherals this year are attrocious:

K/9: 4.88
BB./9: 4.22
K/BB: 1.13
BABIP: .235 (career .275)
ERA: 3.09
FIP: 4.15
xFIP: 4.92

He does have a career ERA (3.68) below his career FIP (3.96) and xFIP (4.39) perhaps a positive sign but still, you have to think at some point this year the numbers catch up with him.

[Erick]

Hensley's peripherals this year are attrocious:

K/9: 4.88
BB./9: 4.22
K/BB: 1.13
BABIP: .235 (career .275)
ERA: 3.09
FIP: 4.15
xFIP: 4.92

He does have a career ERA (3.68) below his career FIP (3.96) and xFIP (4.39) perhaps a positive sign but still, you have to think at some point this year the numbers catch up with him.

He's also been injured, and was just recently converted back to a starter. He seems to be getting stronger. His last start was easily his best game of the year so far.

He's only pitched 32 innings.

And either way, it's not as if Livan Hernandez projects to be a significant upgrade. Just more expensive. I guess you could say he's more durable, as well.

[lou]

I disagree with some of this.

1. I don't like the idea of letting Clay Hensley go. Is he going to be too expensive or something? What happens if he finishes the year out giving consistent quality starts? He could be a 5th starter next year. Worst case scenario, you move him back to the pen again. Why does Hopper get arb., while Hensley gets DFA'd? I'm guessing it has to be some sort of expected money differential, but you're way better at payroll estimations so I'll let you explain that to me.

2. Where did the trade James, Hand, whatever it takes comment come from? Is that for Wandy? Because Wilson and Buehrle can just be acquired as free agents.

3. Buehrle AND Livan? I understand they eat up innings, but for that, I'd rather keep a guy like Hensley and try that out or something. I feel like that would end up being too much money for a couple of starters who rely way too much on their defense. A lot of innings, but they're not necessarily guaranteed to be quality innings.

4. That's not necessarily what I'd like to see in CF, but if we're going with Coghlan/platoon righty, I agree with bobbob when he says that Mike Cameron is more than likely capable of filling that role. If that's the plan, they just need to bring back Cameron for another year. He's actually probably the only guy available in free agency who fills such a role, so I'm cool with him.

5. Not a big fan, but I could see Infante coming back to play 2B + Bonifacio at 3B. Considering Dominguez for next year just seems like rushing his development. He hasn't shown any signs of being big-league ready this year.

1. Hensley will make around 2.5-3, Badenhop around 1.5. It's not a lot, but the Marlins don't need to pay Hensley that for the pen which is full of alternatives and that would be a lot to risk a 5th SP spot on when he has absolutely no track record and you can get a more stable option for that or cheap. Let someone else deal with the risk.

2. No shit

3. Proven innings have a lot of value. Hensley is a massive injury risk. You are really understating this organizations need for solid unspectacular rock solid innings. The SP top end is there with the three right handers, and the bullpen is above average. They need to not have rollercoasters with Volstad, Hand, Bullpen Days, etc. Hensley could be good, but I personally like to limit uncertainty as much as possible. And absolutely needs a lefty. I have no idea why you don't like Buerhle. He has thrown 10 (going on 11) years in a row over 200 innings, and has had over a 4 era three times all in a hitters park in the AL.

4. Sure, although just scanning the list I'd rather get someone younger if possible. Cameron could just fall apart. You never know.

5. Infante will easily make over $4 mil in arbitration, or, demand an Orlando Hudson/Orlando Cabreraesque contract in the $3-5 range for 2-3 years. He will likely get it based on his play this year (assuming modest offensive showing rest of the year.). Infante doesn't make much sense here. Dominguez defense should immediately make him at least an OK starter, which is why the Marlins just need to have a very flexible bench with two other guys who can play 3B, and a third who can play 2B, so they can shift around the bench and bonifacio if needed for growing pains. Infante would be great, if he wasn't going to make that much and would accept a 350-400 PA role. Likely looking for someone new here. Marlins have money to spend, but just on Infante is a little nuts when two starters are the top priority.
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He's also been injured, and was just recently converted back to a starter. He seems to be getting stronger. His last start was easily his best game of the year so far.

He's only pitched 32 innings.

And either way, it's not as if Livan Hernandez projects to be a significant upgrade. Just more expensive. I guess you could say he's more durable, as well.

Hensley makes more than Livan this year. It's very similar for next year more than likely.

[Bobbob1313]

I'd like to get a legit every day CFer, and Coco Crisp is the only one on that list. Short of that, I'd be fine with a Coghlan platoon with someone. And I'm a Cameron fan, so he'd be for me, as previously stated.

[Ramp]

small sample size but Mike Cameron has 10 walks in just 65 at bats

well ahead of his career BB rate

[Jay]

I think at that price and the flexibility of Hensley. He is something this team needs if they want to win. Depth is very important.

What was Vazquez's plan post-2011? If he actually pitches decent the final 2 months why not try and bring him back?

Point is you go into spring training with Hensley as the 6th starter unless hes lights out and volstad is somewhere below on that depth chart. Unless of course you expect to compete and win if some things go your way.

[lou]

I think at that price and the flexibility of Hensley. He is something this team needs if they want to win. Depth is very important.

What was Vazquez's plan post-2011? If he actually pitches decent the final 2 months why not try and bring him back?

Point is you go into spring training with Hensley as the 6th starter unless hes lights out and volstad is somewhere below on that depth chart. Unless of course you expect to compete and win if some things go your way.

Well, they can't keep Volstad hypothetically 'below' that amount because he will cost to much through arbitration and is out of options. He's either the 5 starter for a little over $2 million, or off the team. I think we all know which one of those is going to happen.

The rest comes down to money. I think their are 10 locks for the staff next year, and the team has 9 of them already.

SP - Johnson, Nolasco, Anibal, "lefty starter"
RP - Nunez, Mujica, Webb, Dunn, Choate, Cishek(or Ceda, pick your favorite club controlled)

Assuming the Marlins have to pay $10-12 for lefty starter, they probably have another $10 in free agency to fill four bench/platoon starter spots, 5th SP, and 4th RHP in the bullpen.

Javy? If he is good these last two months, he'd easily get $7-10 in free agency on a 1 year. That would eat up the rest of the budget instantly unless he'd be willing to some sort of discount to play close to home. It's more than likely Marlins do something like $2-3 for a Livan/5th SP innings eater type just to chug away. I can see each bench guy averaging $1 million a year.

Even looking conservatively, Marlins are right up to where everyone expects them to spend just like that. Does a $2.5+ Hensley make sense on top of that? Does a $1.4 million Badenhop? Not sure.

If Hensley is lights out final two months, choice is easy. But he isn't the safest of investments despite how good he has been the last two seasons. Just keeping him to be a 6th starter for the hell of it isn't good enough to keep him unless they figure out the rest of the rotation and at least half the bench.

[Jay]

Your right lou but I just don't see the point in a DFA if he pitches like a #5 or better. I forget the bullpen is overcrowded to begin with.

Anyone have a list of remaining options for our relievers?

Obviously I think if we expect to win, Volstad is off the team.

[Erick]

Javy? If he is good these last two months, he'd easily get $7-10 in free agency on a 1 year. That would eat up the rest of the budget instantly unless he'd be willing to some sort of discount to play close to home. It's more than likely Marlins do something like $2-3 for a Livan/5th SP innings eater type just to chug away. I can see each bench guy averaging $1 million a year.

Why would Javy get 7-10, while Livan gets 2-3? Wouldn't their salaries be a little more similar in upcoming free agency?

They're both basically veteran innings eaters at this point in their careers, and Livan is actually the one with better numbers the past two years.

I'd gladly take Livan at 2-3 mill, but I was assuming he'd make more than that.