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This is something I've wanted to look into for awhile but haven't been able to, but now I can woo. This obviously isn't the "trade Hanley because he doesn't respect the game!" dumbshit, but rather it's simply looking at Hanley with the motto: Buy low, sell high. And that's the big thing; it's not about trying to trade Hanley, but rather it's "Did Hanley peak? And if so, should we try to find someone who would give value based off his peak rather than future production?" Who knows if anyone would give us that value, but there's still the question, did Hanley peak? For 3 years he was a top-5 player, but last year he wasn't even the top SS and things did not tread the right way this year. Should we still expect a top-5 player?
The one consistent for Hanley has been the ability to jack the ball out of the ballpark. In fact, even with the fact he posted the lowest .ISO of his career last year, he posted his second best HR/FB%. Even with him again looking to post the lowest ISO of his career, his HR/FB% is still at 12.5%; Ranking 4th out of his 6 years and not even a full percent under his 13.4% career rate.
But he is hitting less home runs, mostly because he's hitting more balls on the ground. From 2007-2009, his GB% in those 3 years was 41.4%; Last year that number jumped nearly 10% to 51.0% and it's basically replicating itself at 50.8% this year. Needless to say, it's hard to hit a ball out of the ballpark when you hit the ball on the ground half the time.
Last year was hopefully just an anomaly, but he has been repeating it again this year. If he's going to continue to post 50%+ GB numbers, he's likely not going to be posting .200+ ISOs, let alone the .224 ISO he had from 2007-2009.
Thankfully, not all is doom-and-gloom; July is the light at the end of the tunnel. From April to June, Hanley posted a GB rate of 54% but in July it's back to 41.5% - and Hanley's ISO is up to .241 to compliment it. Hanley has looked like Hanley for the past month, and hopefully that stays and is not what he was the previous 9 months.
Unfortunately, power is not just HRs. It's means getting doubles and triples, too. Which, unfortunately, has been quite the downward trend in his career. Looking at the % of hits that are doubles/triples that stay inside the ballpark, with the numbers in the parenthesis being the percent of singles/doubles&triples/homers:
06: 33.9% (60.0%/30.8%/9.2%)
07: 29.5% (60.8%/25.5%/13.7%)
08: 26.4% (59.9%/21.5%/18.6%)
09: 24.9% (66.0%/21.8%/12.2%)
10: 21.1% (68.7%/18.4%/12.9%)
11: 19.7% (69.7%/17.1%/13.2%)
Sure, part of the past two years has to do with hitting the ball on the ground more, but the big increase in singles is certainly alarming. And why has the rate of which he gets doubles/triples decreased each year? Is this where "hustle" does come in? Has he simply lost speed with the growth of his body/increase in age? Is he hitting less balls in the gap outside of the increase in GBs (Possible but unlikely considering his high BABIPs)? Whatever the case is, he's becoming more and more of a singles hitter with each passing year.
There's also then the effect the drop in power will have on his BABIP, last year he posted the lowest BABIP in his career to match the lowest ISO, and this year he's looking like he'll again "beat" that number.
Now, that's not to say he isn't an offensive threat. His drop in both BABIP and ISO still put him in above-average category, and he's still post very good BB/Ks. But is he the .947 OPS bat he was from 07-09, or the .853 OPS bat he was last year? With how his peripherals are again duplicating what they were last year, Hanley might end up being more of a mid-.800 OPS bat going forward rather than a mid-.900 OPS bat. Combine that with his decline in defense (After finally looking like a average defensive SS, he's looking to post his second strait UZR in the negative double digits) and you're looking at a drop from a 7.5 WAR player to a 4.5 WAR player. He'd still be a very good player, and he's still be worth his contract (Though he would no longer be a bargain) - In terms of skill, there is no reason at all to trade him.
But can the Marlins be a better team without him? I wouldn't find it worth it if the package in return is that of a 4.5 WAR player. But if we could get a package of that for a 7.5 WAR player while trading a 4.5 WAR player...yes, that makes the team better.
It's all obviously all hypothetical though, since the stadium means he will not be traded. And again, with his July and him looking like Hanley again, you'd hate to trade him and have him go back to being a top-5 player on a bargain contract. But I think it'd also be silly to think Hanley will always be that player if he his peripherals don't go back the right way.
The one consistent for Hanley has been the ability to jack the ball out of the ballpark. In fact, even with the fact he posted the lowest .ISO of his career last year, he posted his second best HR/FB%. Even with him again looking to post the lowest ISO of his career, his HR/FB% is still at 12.5%; Ranking 4th out of his 6 years and not even a full percent under his 13.4% career rate.
But he is hitting less home runs, mostly because he's hitting more balls on the ground. From 2007-2009, his GB% in those 3 years was 41.4%; Last year that number jumped nearly 10% to 51.0% and it's basically replicating itself at 50.8% this year. Needless to say, it's hard to hit a ball out of the ballpark when you hit the ball on the ground half the time.
Last year was hopefully just an anomaly, but he has been repeating it again this year. If he's going to continue to post 50%+ GB numbers, he's likely not going to be posting .200+ ISOs, let alone the .224 ISO he had from 2007-2009.
Thankfully, not all is doom-and-gloom; July is the light at the end of the tunnel. From April to June, Hanley posted a GB rate of 54% but in July it's back to 41.5% - and Hanley's ISO is up to .241 to compliment it. Hanley has looked like Hanley for the past month, and hopefully that stays and is not what he was the previous 9 months.
Unfortunately, power is not just HRs. It's means getting doubles and triples, too. Which, unfortunately, has been quite the downward trend in his career. Looking at the % of hits that are doubles/triples that stay inside the ballpark, with the numbers in the parenthesis being the percent of singles/doubles&triples/homers:
06: 33.9% (60.0%/30.8%/9.2%)
07: 29.5% (60.8%/25.5%/13.7%)
08: 26.4% (59.9%/21.5%/18.6%)
09: 24.9% (66.0%/21.8%/12.2%)
10: 21.1% (68.7%/18.4%/12.9%)
11: 19.7% (69.7%/17.1%/13.2%)
Sure, part of the past two years has to do with hitting the ball on the ground more, but the big increase in singles is certainly alarming. And why has the rate of which he gets doubles/triples decreased each year? Is this where "hustle" does come in? Has he simply lost speed with the growth of his body/increase in age? Is he hitting less balls in the gap outside of the increase in GBs (Possible but unlikely considering his high BABIPs)? Whatever the case is, he's becoming more and more of a singles hitter with each passing year.
There's also then the effect the drop in power will have on his BABIP, last year he posted the lowest BABIP in his career to match the lowest ISO, and this year he's looking like he'll again "beat" that number.
Now, that's not to say he isn't an offensive threat. His drop in both BABIP and ISO still put him in above-average category, and he's still post very good BB/Ks. But is he the .947 OPS bat he was from 07-09, or the .853 OPS bat he was last year? With how his peripherals are again duplicating what they were last year, Hanley might end up being more of a mid-.800 OPS bat going forward rather than a mid-.900 OPS bat. Combine that with his decline in defense (After finally looking like a average defensive SS, he's looking to post his second strait UZR in the negative double digits) and you're looking at a drop from a 7.5 WAR player to a 4.5 WAR player. He'd still be a very good player, and he's still be worth his contract (Though he would no longer be a bargain) - In terms of skill, there is no reason at all to trade him.
But can the Marlins be a better team without him? I wouldn't find it worth it if the package in return is that of a 4.5 WAR player. But if we could get a package of that for a 7.5 WAR player while trading a 4.5 WAR player...yes, that makes the team better.
It's all obviously all hypothetical though, since the stadium means he will not be traded. And again, with his July and him looking like Hanley again, you'd hate to trade him and have him go back to being a top-5 player on a bargain contract. But I think it'd also be silly to think Hanley will always be that player if he his peripherals don't go back the right way.
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