Possible Free Agent Options For Marlins Next Season

[emkayseven]

You are making my points about Cain and Nolasco. Not just 2009 but for YEARS statheads have pointed to his peripherals and he's never regressed. He's gotten better and better and his peripherals STILL stay he's due regression. Nolasco is always due the breakout year according to peripherals and yet he's never had it. He's had some good ones, he's had some bad years, and underachieved in all of them, according to the peripherals.

Then you go off and say "Cain's FIP is actually lower than ERA" without acknowledging that his xFIP, SIERA, and tERA - the stats you used before - are all higher still. Point being that for some players, you can look at the peripherals and see what you want to see. Pick out some stats, leave out some others, and you have exactly what you want.

If those stats that the "SABR guys" say are more important are saying he's had shit luck, then he's had shit luck for 4 years. You can't always ignore luck but you don't just have a string of 4 years of bad luck. The guys who come up with these stats admit they do not always tell the whole story. Are Volstad's BB/9 down and K/9 up? Yes, but his HR/9 is up. Is his BABIP higher than .300? Yes, but you know damn well BABIP varies considerably from year to year so his BABIP relative to his career rate doesn't matter.

I'm not arguing he hasn't had bad luck (he has) and I'm not arguing he should be out of the rotation (he shouldn't). If we're talking about competing next year and you give me a choice of one starter, Volstad or Buehrle, I'm taking Buehrle every time.

When you talk about "another Volstad" for 2.5 million do you have someone in mind? It's not like young starters who have underachieved for years to the point where they have limited enough value to get a 2.5 million dollar contract come on the free agent market all the time. Or, like, ever. And I highly doubt we trade something from our barren farm system for a back of the rotation starter.

[Beef]

That being said, when you're feeding everyone cock high fastballs every other pitch, your BABIP gonna be high.

Mmm hmm

[Erick]

You are making my points about Cain and Nolasco. Not just 2009 but for YEARS statheads have pointed to his peripherals and he's never regressed. He's gotten better and better and his peripherals STILL stay he's due regression. Nolasco is always due the breakout year according to peripherals and yet he's never had it. He's had some good ones, he's had some bad years, and underachieved in all of them, according to the peripherals.

Then you go off and say "Cain's FIP is actually lower than ERA" without acknowledging that his xFIP, SIERA, and tERA - the stats you used before - are all higher still. Point being that for some players, you can look at the peripherals and see what you want to see. Pick out some stats, leave out some others, and you have exactly what you want.

If those stats that the "SABR guys" say are more important are saying he's had shit luck, then he's had shit luck for 4 years. You can't always ignore luck but you don't just have a string of 4 years of bad luck. The guys who come up with these stats admit they do not always tell the whole story. Are Volstad's BB/9 down and K/9 up? Yes, but his HR/9 is up. Is his BABIP higher than .300? Yes, but you know damn well BABIP varies considerably from year to year so his BABIP relative to his career rate doesn't matter.

I'm not arguing he hasn't had bad luck (he has) and I'm not arguing he should be out of the rotation (he shouldn't). If we're talking about competing next year and you give me a choice of one starter, Volstad or Buehrle, I'm taking Buehrle every time.

When you talk about "another Volstad" for 2.5 million do you have someone in mind? It's not like young starters who have underachieved for years to the point where they have limited enough value to get a 2.5 million dollar contract come on the free agent market all the time. Or, like, ever. And I highly doubt we trade something from our barren farm system for a back of the rotation starter.

Cain's xFIP is always a little higher because he, like basically everyone who pitches for San Francisco, puts up incredibly low HR/FB #'s on a consistent basis.

Back in the day, he had below average control (no longer the case), was a 7 K/9 inning guy (this year, he's near 8 K/9 inning guy), and he's a flyball pitcher so everyone assumed regression.

He's improved in certain areas (his BB/9 has improved at a great pace), and he presents a rarity. He posts consistently low HR/FB #'s which is not the case for most pitchers. There are anamoly's in stats, and this is one of them.

Still, his current peripherals are very good, so it's not as if he's living on a fluke or something.


Nolasco is the complete opposite of this because Nolasco allows a lot of HR's. Volstad allows a lot of HR's too, yes, but Volstad is not a flyball pitcher so you figure that it will reach a point where the # of HR's he allows will look decent. Again, he's had two years ('09 and this year) of really bad luck with flyballs. Whether it's just him is unknown, but normally this just really isn't the case with pitchers. Last year, his HR/FB look a bit more normal and he only allowed 17 HR's in 175 innings, which is at least decent (especially for a pitcher with good control, as is the case with Volstad).

And Nolasco is not necessarily the same pitcher he once was. 4.08 ERA, for example, is fair this year. Pitchers get better, pitchers get worse. They don't stay the same forever. I'm not sure why you're bringing up the fact that he always underachieves according to peripherals, as if he's always been the same guy; he hasn't. Look at his K/9 regression and you'll notice why he hasn't become the elite pitcher everyone assumed he would be when he had shit luck in '09.


Is there something about Buehrle throughout his career that suggest he's predictably worth 11 million? Something about him suggesting that "no matter the peripherals, it don't matter because he is who he is, in terms of ERA." I don't see it. Can you point it out?


As for possible pitchers, since the comparison is Buehrle, I'd rather sign his younger, identical twin Jeff Francis at a much cheaper price because you're basically getting the same shit if you put them behind the same defense.

But really, I prefer guys with upside. Say we lose out on Wilson, I'd rather set my attention on a guy like Edwin Jackson than go out and sign a Buehrle or a Livan Hernandez because they're "veteran, innings eaters."
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Mmm hmm

.467? Really? He's had a dominant month in terms of K's, BB's, K/BB, fair HR/9 rate, yet he's been fucked this month because of a .467 .BABIP.

.467 .BABIP's rarely ever happen. Elih Villanueva found more gloves. It's partially about stuff, but it's mostly about shit luck when hitters are getting base hits on, basically, half the balls put in play.

[Beef]

Elih is more like a 2003 Mark Redman. He was obviously hammered in his major league start, but his control has been great and he will put balls all over the zone. His stuff isn't any good, but he isn't putting the ball right down the middle. Volstad just seems to throw like an asshole out there. It is no surprise that he gets hit hard. It's not crazy unlucky because of the fact that he puts fastballs that aren't really moving right down the middle so often.

[Erick]

Elih is more like a 2003 Mark Redman. He was obviously hammered in his major league start, but his control has been great and he will put balls all over the zone. His stuff isn't any good, but he isn't putting the ball right down the middle. Volstad just seems to throw like an asshole out there. It is no surprise that he gets hit hard. It's not crazy unlucky because of the fact that he puts fastballs that aren't really moving right down the middle so often.

If that's the case, why is his career .BABIP .295?

The current month he's having with balls in play basically never happens.
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Also, Elih sucks.

[Beef]

Elih is what he is.

Elih went to FSU - he's the best.

We're not talking about one month with Volstad. He can have an unlucky month. Fine. Granted, I wouldn't really call it crazy unlucky - perhaps when guys like him are getting outs, they are getting lucky.

Elih didn't get crushed in his major league start because he was getting unlucky. He didn't put the ball in the few places he needed to so that he would have any chance to get people out. If he was getting people out that day, he would have been lucky.

I said nothing of Volstad's numbers for a month. He been throwing the same shit for a long time now. His stuff is incredibly easy for a major league player to hit - and hit well - and that's why a lot of balls in play are hits.

[emkayseven]

poor bad luck babip, these aren't even solid hits! just little bloops!

[Beef]

This is when picking and choosing numbers and learning new numbers so that you can choose them also and completely ignoring reality isn't the best.

[Erick]

Elih is what he is.

Elih went to FSU - he's the best.

We're not talking about one month with Volstad. He can have an unlucky month. Fine. Granted, I wouldn't really call it crazy unlucky - perhaps when guys like him are getting outs, they are getting lucky.

Elih didn't get crushed in his major league start because he was getting unlucky. He didn't put the ball in the few places he needed to so that he would have any chance to get people out. If he was getting people out that day, he would have been lucky.

I said nothing of Volstad's numbers for a month. He been throwing the same shit for a long time now. His stuff is incredibly easy for a major league player to hit - and hit well - and that's why a lot of balls in play are hits.

But, uh, that's not true.

.BABIP (especially for pitchers) varies from year-to-year.

.BABIP is a lot more about luck than it is about stuff.

If his balls were so easy to hit, why is his career .BABIP under .300?

And I brought up the month of July because if his .BABIP were anywhere near normal, he'd be having a dominant month, making his #'s for the year look pretty good. In which case, we wouldn't even be having this conversation.
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This is when picking and choosing numbers and learning new numbers so that you can choose them also and completely ignoring reality isn't the best.

You said Volstad allows hits because he's an idiot who puts it right down the middle.

Funny that tonight this is all started when Justin Turner hit a ball that was out of the zone. Guys like Lucas Duda and Daniel Murphy hit one through the hole just past the amazing gold glover, Omar Infante.

But yes, it's all because he places it down the middle all the time.

Again, if he's oh so hittable, why is his career .BABIP under .300? Just answer the question instead of saying I pretend to know stats. I've even defined what the stat is. I'm not pretending anything. He's had poor .BABIP luck this year, and it's been terrible luck this month.

This is so stupid that if I was saying the things you're saying, Bobbob would've responded already. For sure.

[Beef]

His babip is that low because he is lucky

[Erick]

His babip is that low because he is lucky

You've just proven that you're an idiot. Congratulations.

You have no idea how to analyze the stat so your comeback is always "lol you're trying to act smart by using stats and pretending to know what they mean!"

Maybe you should explain to us why a .295 .BABIP is lucky, Einstein.

[Mainge]

You said Volstad allows hits because he's an idiot who puts it right down the middle.

Maybe we shouldn't take things so literally.

[Chewford]

How high is his bibimbap?

[Erick]

You know who else has a career .295 .BABIP? Josh Johnson.

Clearly, Josh Johnson is pretty hittable.

It certainly has nothing to do with the fact that this is basically a league average number that most pitchers will have after a certain amount of time.
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And Mark Buehrle had a .313 .BABIP (.290 career) last year. Definitely not worth 11 million. Too hittable!

[Mainge]

Are you arguing that Chris Volstad isn't a very hittable pitcher?