Possible Free Agent Options For Marlins Next Season

[Erick]

Are you arguing that Chris Volstad isn't a very hittable pitcher?

I'm arguing that .BABIP is much more about luck than it is about your stuff.

I'm arguing that a .467 .BABIP never happens.

And Volstad hasn't been mediocre in his career because of high .BABIP's. He's been mediocre because of the amount of HR's he's allowed (which is a fluke, to a certain extent) + the fact that he allows TOO MANY balls in play (something you live with/something that will always make him a mid-to-backend of the rotation guy, at best -- which is basically what Mark Buehrle has been his whole entire career).

[emkayseven]

how does the fact that he's a fly ball pitcher who's allowed home runs for his entire career make it a fluke?

[Mainge]

When you're feeding everyone cock high fastballs every other pitch, your HRs gonna be high.

[Erick]

how does the fact that he's a fly ball pitcher who's allowed home runs for his entire career make it a fluke?

1. He's not a flyball pitcher.
2. He's had two years of terrible luck with flyballs. (HR/FB)
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When you're feeding everyone cock high fastballs every other pitch, your HRs gonna be high.

Wasn't the case last year.

People said the same thing about Mujica's #'s last year, as well. He's been just fine this year.

I'm not saying he has the ability to keep balls in the park, but he's not terrible to the extent of '09 and this year. Not many pitchers consistently are.
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Volstad's last two hitters = infield single due to Bonifacio bobble + single on a bad hop (would've been a double play).

.BABIP has nothing to do with luck, though.

[Bobbob1313]

It's not just bad luck.

Erick, you brought up JJ's BABIP being similar, and thus as "hittable". However, JJ allows a lot fewer HRs than Volstad, but he also allows a lot fewer XBHs in general. Volstad allows a .159 ISO against compared to JJ .105. 20.5% of JJ's non-HR hits allowed are XBHs, compared to 25.3% for Volstad. He gets hit and he gets hit hard.

And he hasn't had a bunch of wall scrapers this year.

"Just Enough" home run - Means the ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, OR that it landed less than one fence height past the fence. These are the ones that barely made it over the fence.
"No Doubt" home run - Means the ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet AND landed at least 50 feet past the fence. These are the really deep blasts.
"Plenty" home run - Everything else, except for the 2 above Homerun types
Lucky Homer - A home run that would not have cleared the fence if it has been struck on a 70-degree, calm day.

http://hittrackeronline.com/index.ph...type&sort=desc

He's the only pitcher on the team who has allowed more than one "No Doubt" home run this year, and 11 of his 16 HRs allowed have been either "Plenty" or "No Doubters" and none have been the result of environmental factors of weather.

He just doesn't fool many guys, and it seems to be getting worse, as his LD% is a career high.

I think Volstad gets more shit than he deserves, but I don't think there's much hope in him being even a league average pitcher simply because of how hard he gets hit.

[Mainge]

1. He's not a flyball pitcher.
2. He's had two years of terrible luck with flyballs. (HR/FB)
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Wasn't the case last year.

People said the same thing about Mujica's #'s last year, as well. He's been just fine this year.

I'm not saying he has the ability to keep balls in the park, but he's not terrible to the extent of '09 and this year. Not many pitchers consistently are.
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Volstad's last two hitters = infield single due to Bonifacio bobble + single on a bad hop (would've been a double play).

.BABIP has nothing to do with luck, though.

I don't know why the hell you keep saying "people said this about play x." or whatever. I don't give a fuck. I'm not the stupid people you talk to.

And for the record, I never said luck doesn't have anything to do with BABIP. I also never said luck doesn't play a very very large part in BABIP.

That is all.

[Bobbob1313]

His issue isn't BABIP. His issue is that when he gets hit, he gets hit really hard, and he doesn't do enough to offset that, like Nolasco or (recently and in the distant past) Vazquez.

[Erick]

It's not just bad luck.

Erick, you brought up JJ's BABIP being similar, and thus as "hittable". However, JJ allows a lot fewer HRs than Volstad, but he also allows a lot fewer XBHs in general. Volstad allows a .159 ISO against compared to JJ .105. 20.5% of JJ's non-HR hits allowed are XBHs, compared to 25.3% for Volstad. He gets hit and he gets hit hard.

And he hasn't had a bunch of wall scrapers this year.



http://hittrackeronline.com/index.ph...type&sort=desc

He's the only pitcher on the team who has allowed more than one "No Doubt" home run this year, and 11 of his 16 HRs allowed have been either "Plenty" or "No Doubters" and none have been the result of environmental factors of weather.

He just doesn't fool many guys, and it seems to be getting worse, as his LD% is a career high.

I think Volstad gets more shit than he deserves, but I don't think there's much hope in him being even a league average pitcher simply because of how hard he gets hit.

As I said, he does have a problem with HR's (not sure how big the problem will be because I'm not sure if his HR/FB will be this terrible every year).

His LD% isn't incredibly high. Plus, is LD% something that remains constant from year-to-year or another stat that varies?

Either way, his LD% is 20.6. For comparison's sake, Nolasco's is 25% and in Nolasco's case, his LD%'s go up and down like a yo-yo, year-to-year.

You do make a good point though for the July #'s because he's been hit to the tune of a ~29 LD% this month. Still though, .467 .BABIP's really just never happen.

[Mainge]

Nolasco also gives up a crap ton of XBH's.

[Erick]

His issue isn't BABIP. His issue is that when he gets hit, he gets hit really hard, and he doesn't do enough to offset that, like Nolasco or (recently and in the distant past) Vazquez.

To be fair, if Nolasco continues to get hit to the tune of a 25 LD%, a K/9 under 7 (as is the case for him this year) probably won't be enough to offset it either.

I just don't think LD%'s are predictable from year-to-year, though.

And it's weird with Volstad because he's a groundball pitcher; groundball pitchers normally tend to have lower LD%'s.

[Bobbob1313]

As I said, he does have a problem with HR's (not sure how big the problem will be because I'm not sure if his HR/FB will be this terrible every year).

His LD% isn't incredibly high. Plus, is LD% something that remains constant from year-to-year or another stat that varies?

Either way, his LD% is 20.6. For comparison's sake, Nolasco's is 25% and in Nolasco's case, his LD%'s go up and down like a yo-yo, year-to-year.

You do make a good point though for the July #'s because he's been hit to the tune of a ~29 LD% this month. Still though, .467 .BABIP's really just never happen.

He simply doesn't induce a ton of weak contact. If it doesn't show up in BABIP, it'll certainly show up in the number of XBHs he allows, and that number is way too high for a guy who doesn't really do anything else well.

You live with Nolasco and Vazquez at their best because they limit baserunners for those XBHs to drive in.

Volstad doesn't limit baserunners very well and he allows too many XBHs. That's not bad luck. That's who he is right now.

What frustrates is he shows excellent stretches but rarely puts together a whole good game. He's always a few hitters away, but that's been the case for 3 years.

[Erick]

I don't know why the hell you keep saying "people said this about play x." or whatever. I don't give a fuck. I'm not the stupid people you talk to.

And for the record, I never said luck doesn't have anything to do with BABIP. I also never said luck doesn't play a very very large part in BABIP.

That is all.

The play x thing wasn't directed at you. It's just the way the board is setup. If I post something and then post something again (without anyone posting in between), it all looks like one post, but it's not.

[Mainge]

Okay

[Erick]

He simply doesn't induce a ton of weak contact. If it doesn't show up in BABIP, it'll certainly show up in the number of XBHs he allows, and that number is way too high for a guy who doesn't really do anything else well.

You live with Nolasco and Vazquez at their best because they limit baserunners for those XBHs to drive in.

Volstad doesn't limit baserunners very well and he allows too many XBHs. That's not bad luck. That's who he is right now.

What frustrates is he shows excellent stretches but rarely puts together a whole good game. He's always a few hitters away, but that's been the case for 3 years.

Based on this year's numbers, I'd say Volstad's potential to limit baserunners is about the same as Nolasco's.

They both give up a ton of hits and have both posted above average BB/9 rates. Nolasco is better with the walks, but since we're talking about LD% as a legit sustainable stat, Nolasco should also allow more hits in the future considering his higher LD% which is actually one of the worst in the big leagues.

The differential in their WHIP's this year isn't really that great. (Nolasco 1.34, Volstad 1.48)

[Bobbob1313]

That's based on this year's numbers, which is a sample size of all of 20 starts, which isn't much at all.

I was speaking for their careers as a whole. Nolasco's WHIP has been better through their careers, to the tune of 1.27 to 1.41.

Also, .14 means Nolasco allows 10% fewer baserunners. That's not insignificant.