Marlins Drop the Ball in 2-1 Loss to the Cubs

[Erick]

It disproves what you said, which was that he would have beaten out more GBs if he wasn't him. He has a decent IFH%. Actually the best of all Marlin regulars. He also leads the Marlins in total IFHs, despite hitting fewer GBs than Bonifacio and Hanley.

It doesn't prove anything.

Maybe he's just placed more GB's in the right place.
Not all GB's are hit to the same spot.

Some GB's are a lot easier to beat than others.

I said he was slow; I didn't say he was Paul Konerko.
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It disproves what you said, which was that he would have beaten out more GBs if he wasn't him. He has a decent IFH%. Actually the best of all Marlin regulars. He also leads the Marlins in total IFHs, despite hitting fewer GBs than Bonifacio and Hanley.

IFH is infield hits, correct?

I'm pretty sure Bonifacio leads all Marlins in that category. It's a stat that they love putting on TV, for some reason. Bonifacio's one of the few guys in the big leagues who can beat out an occasional routine groundball so I can't believe this is even a discussion.

Not every GB is hit the same way.

[Bobbob1313]

But you criticized him for not having enough infield hits...

[Erick]

But you criticized him for not having enough infield hits...

I didn't say he was incapable of getting infield hits.

I said that it's the reason why he can't beat out certain groundballs that you'd think an above average runner could beat out. Have you not watched a Marlins game this year and said to yourself..."wow, I thought Infante was a bit faster than this?" I know I have.

I brought up the famous play in Washington because it's one that I'm sure everyone remembers. He's not fast at all. Hanley's much faster, and Hanley's speed played a big part in making that particular play bang-bang today.

Also, Beef started this dumbass hypothetical argument.

[Beef]

You said good baserunning is required to run hard from the batter's box to 2nd base.

[Bobbob1313]

I just don't see the point in calling a bang-bang, aggressive play stupid. The time run in the 9th inning would've been in scoring position. I think it would've been stupid if it was 3-0 instead of 2-0, considering Hanley's run would've meant a lot less in the game situation.

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

Let's use the 1st and 3rd with 1 out as the baseline expectation; if he doesn't go, that's where we're at.

If he goes back to 1st, we would be expected to score 1.2 runs in that inning.
If he is safe at 2nd, we gain .236 expected runs. Not an insignificant number.
By getting thrown out, our expectation goes down to .385. That's huge.

I'm not saying it was stupid. It was risky, and he deserves blame for taking that risk and getting out. All things considered, it was the wrong decision.
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I didn't say he was incapable of getting infield hits.

I said that it's the reason why he can't beat out certain groundballs that you'd think an above average runner could beat out. Have you not watched a Marlins game this year and said to yourself..."wow, I thought Infante was a bit faster than this?" I know I have.

I brought up the famous play in Washington because it's one that I'm sure everyone remembers. He's not fast at all. Hanley's much faster, and Hanley's speed played a big part in making that particular play bang-bang today.

Also, Beef started this dumbass hypothetical argument.

And Hanley taking his time out of the box played a big part in making him out. You can't just ignore that.

And if he has 15 infield hits, and has the highest IFH% of all of our regulars, I do not see how you can criticize him for not having enough IFH. That's nit picking because you hate him.

[Erick]

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

Let's use the 1st and 3rd with 1 out as the baseline expectation; if he doesn't go, that's where we're at.

If he goes back to 1st, we would be expected to score 1.2 runs in that inning.
If he is safe at 2nd, we gain .236 expected runs. Not an insignificant number.
By getting thrown out, our expectation goes down to .385. That's huge.

I'm not saying it was stupid. It was risky, and he deserves blame for taking that risk and getting out. All things considered, it was the wrong decision.

I can agree with that.

The context of the conversation goes back to the gamethread, though. Certain people were calling it dumb. "Stupid" and "risky" don't mean the same thing.

As you said in your second point, that number isn't insignificant so there were potential pro's with the decision.

[Bobbob1313]

Yes, but it's much smaller than what he cost them by getting out. The payoff wasn't worth the risk.

[Erick]

http://www.tangotiger.net/re24.html

Let's use the 1st and 3rd with 1 out as the baseline expectation; if he doesn't go, that's where we're at.

If he goes back to 1st, we would be expected to score 1.2 runs in that inning.
If he is safe at 2nd, we gain .236 expected runs. Not an insignificant number.
By getting thrown out, our expectation goes down to .385. That's huge.

I'm not saying it was stupid. It was risky, and he deserves blame for taking that risk and getting out. All things considered, it was the wrong decision.
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And Hanley taking his time out of the box played a big part in making him out. You can't just ignore that.

And if he has 15 infield hits, and has the highest IFH% of all of our regulars, I do not see how you can criticize him for not having enough IFH. That's nit picking because you hate him.

I hadn't realized the amount of infield hits he had. It's not a stat I keep track of because I find it irrelevant, considering that all singles are created equal.

Still, that's wrong. You said he led the team in total infield hits, and I'm sure Bonifacio is very close to 20 already, since they've been putting it on TV nearly every game when he comes up to hit.

Also, the more groundballs you hit the less your % will be because there's more of a chance of you being out on a groundball. Especially if you hit a routine groundball. And again, not all groundballs are hit the same way, etc. so I'm still not a big fan of that number.

[Bobbob1313]

I hadn't realized the amount of infield hits he had. It's not a stat I keep track of because I find it irrelevant, considering that all singles are created equal.

Still, that's wrong. You said he led the team in total infield hits, and I'm sure Bonifacio is very close to 20 already, since they've been putting it on TV nearly every game when he comes up to hit.

Also, the more groundballs you hit the less your % will be because there's more of a chance of you being out on a groundball. Especially if you hit a routine groundball. And again, not all groundballs are hit the same way, etc. so I'm still not a big fan of that number.

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?...0&season1=2011

Bonifacio has 10 IFH + 7 bunt hits. Infante has 15 IFH and 1 bunt hit.

[Erick]

Yes, but it's much smaller than what he cost them by getting out. The payoff wasn't worth the risk.

Ok but at the same time, if Hanley stays at first, it takes an extra-base hit to tie the game.

Assuming he stays at first, I'm guessing that the walks/free bases would've disappeared considering that Quade probably goes to Marshall at that point to face LoMo.

Considering the pitcher, it's a lot easier to get a single than an extra-base hit. Marshall's allowing a slugging% less than .300 to both lefties and righties. Even if Marmol would've stayed in the game, despite the walks, he, too, is incredibly difficult to hit.

Plus, if Hanley doesn't get to 2B on that play, there's really no guarantee that he makes it home on just any extra-base hit either.
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http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?...0&season1=2011

Bonifacio has 10 IFH + 7 bunt hits. Infante has 15 IFH and 1 bunt hit.

Doesn't a bunt hit count as an infield base hit?

[MiamiHomer]

I just don't get why Cameron is starting everyday instead of putting Petersen out there.

[Erick]

I just don't get why Cameron is starting everyday instead of putting Petersen out there.

Yeah, it's really dumb.

Petersen should play more and they should try him out in the 2 spot for a couple of games to see what happens.

[Ramp]

Pretty sure they hate Petersen

[MiamiHomer]

How can one hate someone with the nickname PeteyPipes.

[lou]

How can one hate someone with the nickname PeteyPipes.

Because he drinks Coors Light when Sam Adams is on a summer special for $3 a pint