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A longtime evaluator who saw Jose Fernandez recently mentioned that the right-hander is among the three best pitchers in the majors.
"Among the three best young pitchers?" I asked.
No, he said. Among the three best.
"Among the three best right-handers?" I asked, seeking some sort of clarification.
No, he said. One of the three best.
Clayton Kershaw. Matt Harvey. And the Marlins’ 21-year-old, in the eyes of this scout. (This was before news of the Harvey injury had broken.)
It’s just an opinion, but it was a statement so strong that it reminded me of that time in May 2012 when Oakland GM Billy Beane said over the phone that he thought Mike Trout would be the best overall player in the major leagues by the end of the season. The fact that a thought like this could form, arguable or not, says a whole lot about just how good Jose Fernandez is already, in his first 25 games in the big leagues.
Fernandez starts for the Marlins tonight against Atlanta, and he is nearing the end of his season, because it’s expected that he will be shut down. He already has numbers that could make him the front-runner for the National League Cy Young Award in some years.
He’s got the third-best ERA among all pitchers who have thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, at 2.30 -- behind Kershaw and Harvey. He has the fourth-lowest WHIP in the majors, behind Kershaw, Harvey and Max Scherzer. Only Kershaw has held opponents to a lower OPS, at .501; Hernandez has held hitters to a .525 OPS. Only five pitchers have a better rate of strikeouts per nine innings.
You can weigh him on any scale you want, view him through any prism, and he has been among the best.
Only four pitchers rate lower in DIPS -- defensive independent ERA ratio. Only Kershaw, Harvey and Scherzer rank better in component ERA. Only Kershaw has allowed a lower batting average this season.Only Clayton Kershaw's numbers consistently (but barely) outpace those of Fernandez.
"It’s pretty impressive," Marlins catcher Jeff Mathis said the other day. "For someone as young as he is, to be as mature as he is -- how he handles himself. His stuff is electric."
As good as Fernandez has been this year, the scout says he actually has seen the rookie improve markedly during his career, especially with his third pitch, the changeup. This has helped him in a big way against left-handed hitters, in the eyes of the evaluator, and Mathis agrees. "He throws it kind of hard," said Mathis, mentioning the 88-89 mph velocity on the changeup, "but it has some really good action on it."
Since the end of May, Fernandez has thrown 100 1/3 innings and allowed only 17 earned runs, for an ERA of 1.52.
To repeat: Over the past three months, this 21-year-old has an ERA of 1.52.
In that time, he has surrendered only 58 hits and 30 walks, while racking up 113 strikeouts. "Sometimes, he gets excited [on the mound]," said Mathis. "Having that much success, that many weapons, he gets excited. ... I try to get his attention, try to get him to slow back down."
Most hitters remain silent in the box in discussing Fernandez when Mathis has caught, but Mathis says that he has heard from opponents when he gets to first base. "Some guys will say, 'This guy is the real deal.'"
Mathis says he has been fortunate to catch some really good pitchers, from John Lackey to Jered Weaver, and some pitchers with extraordinary stuff, such as Brandon Morrow. "This guy" -- Fernandez -- "is above all the others, as far as stuff is concerned," Mathis said.
At last, there is a more clear shutdown date for Jose Fernandez.
The energized Marlins rookie will make two more starts, and they won't combine for more than 12 total innings.
Barring a short outing, look for the 21-year-old to go six innings in each of those games, meaning his last start tentatively will be Sept. 11 at home against Atlanta.
Manager Mike Redmond said on Saturday afternoon that Fernandez is looking at a firm innings maximum of 170 innings. Actually, it will be 170 2/3 innings, because right now he is at 158 2/3 innings.
Redmond also added that Fernandez will not pitch on the road, which he would have against the Cubs on Wednesday at Wrigley Field. Instead, he is being pushed back a couple of days to Friday, Sept. 6, at Marlins Park. Fernandez will face the Nationals that day.
Miami hasn't announced who will pitch at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, but it is expected to be a September callup. Brad Hand and Brian Flynn are candidates who are at Triple-A New Orleans.
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