Marlins 2011 All-Star Discussion

[Erick]

Dunn might want to argue that.

Relievers are more difficult to evaluate because they pitch in different situations.

Leverage should be a factor, imo.

At the end of the day, Leo Nunez has the best WAR in our bullpen.

I really like Dunn and I see him as our future closer after Leo is traded (and I'm hoping that happens after the season), but Leo is basically always pitching in mid to high leverage situations when he comes in, and he's basically coming in for a full inning for the most part, as opposed to a middle reliever who might get favorable matchups from time to time.

Also, Dunn's .140 .BABIP against suggest regression. He definitely seems tough to hit for sure, but that's not a sustainable number. All of Leo's success seems rather sustainable right now. If anything, his 3.24 BB/9 is a bit high in comparison to his career #'s, so that might go down some (which is good obviously).

[Miamarlin21]

I have no rebuttal.

[Bobbob1313]

Erick,

Try using WPA when accounting for reliever values relative to leverage.

WPA Win Probability Added. Sum of the differences in win expectancies for each play the player is credited with. Can be for a play, game, season, or career. This is denoted in wins and is of a similar scale to other wins-based statistics. It is highly dependent on the context in which a player played. Elite relievers (due to their high stress innings) may have as many WPA as starters which does not occur for stats like pitching linear weights. Note that it is relative to average, so a 0 WPA player is an average player.

Leo is a 1.25. Dunn is a .07. Choate is our number 2 reliever with .61.

[Erick]

Erick,

Try using WPA when accounting for reliever values relative to leverage.



Leo is a 1.25. Dunn is a .07. Choate is our number 2 reliever with .61.

Interesting info.

Fangraphs WAR takes leverage into account for relievers though, right?

[Bobbob1313]

It's all base on win expectancy. So if you come into a game with a 30% chance of winning, throw one inning and leave with a 45% chance, you're credited with .15 W, which is added to your running total.

[Swifty]

I'd really dispute the validity of any stat that says Leo has been convincingly better than Dunn this season.

[Bobbob1313]

WPA isnt really about "better," it's about leverage. He has pitched more successfully in more situations which had a high impact on the game's final outcome and the team's chance of winning.

[Valid]

Shouldn't we be throwing Anibal's name into the mix here?

[Erick]

Shouldn't we be throwing Anibal's name into the mix here?

Absolutely.

[Swifty]

First voting update released, no Marlin in the top-5 at any position, and no OF in the top-10.

Awesome.

[emkayseven]

voting doesn't matter though. we don't have anyone deserving of starting, and the rest doesn't matter at all

[Swifty]

I know, but it's still funny. You figure Gaby and Stanton would be in there somewhere.
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For those that care:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...ey=allstar2011

[AdamRavs]

Awesome how Freddie Freeman is ahead of Gaby.. I know voting doesn't matter but really?

[MiamiHomer]

Why does this surprise people. Atlanta, New York, Milwaukee, Philly, Cincinnati and St. Louis fans always dominate the voting.

[Swifty]

Why does this surprise people. Atlanta, New York, Milwaukee, Philly, Cincinnati and St. Louis fans always dominate the voting.

Because this year they've changed online voting so that the stats appear next to the people. Name value is lessened.