3B Search: Looks Likes It's Boner or Donnie

[Big Z]

Marlins president of baseball operations Larry Beinfest told MLB.com's Joe Frisaro that he isn't actively looking to make any deals between now and Opening Day, though he'll watch out for possible bargains. "You always look to see if there is an upgrade or a different fit for your club," Beinfest said. "We're not going to do something [just] to do something. It's going to have to be an upgrade over what we think we have here."

If the Marlins acquire a third baseman, it would essentially be a "place-keeper" for prospect Matt Dominguez, Beinfest said.

-MLBTR

[lou]

Honestly, really wish we kept Cantu for this year. He would have come back cheap and maybe you want to mix in Murphy more, but Cantu would be pretty good over 350-400 AB and probably hit closer to 08-09 rates.

Man I hope Murphy surprises me.

[Bobbob1313]

Honestly, really wish we kept Cantu for this year. He would have come back cheap and maybe you want to mix in Murphy more, but Cantu would be pretty good over 350-400 AB and probably hit closer to 08-09 rates.

Man I hope Murphy surprises me.

Three straight years of significantly declining power + vastly decreased contact rate last year + likely far worse defense than Murphy.

Why do you think he would be a good bet to hit closer to his 08-09 rates?

[Ramp]

Jorge Cantu is absolute garbage. I'd rather Kyle Skipworth play there at this point.

[HUGG]

I thought I read a while back that Donnie himself didn't think he'd have his power back for most of the season because of his wrist. Maybe I totally imagined it.

[Namaste]

Three straight years of significantly declining power

Can you post some numbers so we can take a looksie?

[emkayseven]

Can you post some numbers so we can take a looksie?

Are you seriously debating that? Far be it from me and bobbob to agree on most things, but:

ISO has gone from .204 to .154 to .136
HR have gone from 26 to 16 to 11
SLG from .481 to .443 to .392
FB% from 44.8 to 42.6 to 39.6
HR/FB from 12.3 to 7.4 to 7.3

I mean, no matter what way you cut it or want to define "power" his has been zapped the last 3 years. I don't know if you just didn't want to google his player page or you actually disagree with that statement, but I can't imagine anyone not seeing that his power has virtually disappeared.

Combine that with the fact that he's a terrible, terrible defender at 3B and I see no value in having kept him.

[Namaste]

I wasn't debating anything. I was posting from my phone.


To add to that, I was sure that Cantu's #'s had taken a dive the past 2 years but 3 years sounded suspect.

With that said, we're still comparing Cantu to Donnie Bleepin.

So I ask, even though Cantu is a mere shell of his old self, could he still be better than what Murphy will give us this year?

I don't know. I'm just asking.

[emkayseven]

Marcel and ZiPS were the only projections I can find stuff on for Murphy, since projections were done when he was still possibly injured, wasn't a starter, etc. Those two pegged Murphy for 224 and 221 PA, respectively.

Marcel had Murphy for .254/.323/.458, 7 HR, 31 RBI and a .174 ISO in 224 PA
ZiPS had Murphy for .227/.282/.429, 9 HR, 27 RBI and a .202 ISO in 221 PA

For Cantu:

Marcel: .269/.322/.424, 14 HR, 67 RBI, .155 ISO in 522 PA
ZiPS: .253/.305/.393, 14 HR, 66 RBI, .140 ISO in 577 PA

Significantly less ISO in both circumstances. Murphy's line might look shitty - especially from ZiPS - but those are .781 and .711 OPS respectively. The projections for Cantu? .746 and .698.

Also, extrapolate the counting stats for Murphy to the # of PA they had for Cantu and that's 16 HR 72 RBI for Murphy in Marcel, 23 HR 70 RBI in ZiPS. Both higher than Cantu. I know there's some fuzzy math there (Murphy's never had that many PAs, who knows how he'll fare in August and September, who knows what the injury is going to do to his power) but by all indications possible - none of this even includes Murphy's better defense - Murphy is a better option over Cantu.

Conclusion: Jorge Cantu sucks.

[Bobbob1313]

BaseballProspectus:

Donnie Bleeps: 254/.305/.459 1.3 WARP
Jorge Cant: .256/ .312/.392 .3 WARP

Most projection systems are actually more bullish on Donnie than I would've expected, which gave me higher hopes than I originally had. I still think if the wrist is OK, he can put up a .740 with average defense, which wouldn't be the end of the world.
--------------------
And yeah, Cantu is terrible.

I mean yeah, bring him in for a minor league contract, because I'm down to bring anyone in for a minor league contract, but Cantu's just shit at this point. Maybe he proves it wrong, but there's a serious shit trend.

[Namaste]

The Bleeper is the King

Who cares what he does on a day to day basis.

I mean that.

[Ralph]

Not only did Texas want Florida to pay at least half of the $48 million left on third baseman Michael Young's contract, but they asked for some combination of Leo Nunez and/or prized prospect Christian Yelich, with pitching prospects " much too steep...

http://www.sacbee.com/2011/04/02/352...#ixzz1Im3foU00

[Ramp]

ehehehehe

[MiamiHomer]

ehe indeed