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I dunno, the more I think about it, the more I'm a bit eh towards Upton.
High K rates are always concerning regardless of who it's from. Like his brother, he's patient but his horrible contact rates.
The biggest asset of his game comes from his ability to hit for a high BABIP. When you're biggest asset is something that's very volatile, that's worrisome to me. It's the reason I'm scared of a bad Hanley season every year (And look at what happened through the majority of this season): It's very easy to have a bad season because shit happens outside of your control. Yeah, he does have patience, but we're not talking great patience. And he does have power, but again, not great power. And yes, he is young. But power surges come later (i.e. Last year was the first year Cabrera saw a ISO spike, at 27 years of age), and it's certainly possible he's already maxed out physically. Ontop of which, his power numbers are less impressive considering the park he plays in.
My point is, I really don't know if you can say he's > Morrison offensively. I think highest-expected OPS of both is in the low/mid 800's. Upton does have more upside cuz of power but those strike out rates are likely going to hold him back from being able to be a superstar steadily, and those same contact problem gives him a better chance of burning out.
The difference is defense. Morrison sucks, he very likely won't even be average. The difference there is going to be between 10-20 runs (let's just go 15). They're actually even on the basepaths though going by BP's method of judging first to third et al, so nothing there. But that puts Upton at a "60" point advantage in OPS with his superior defense.
The other difference though is money, which can't be ignored. 3 more seasons of Morrison at the minimum plus 3 more seasons of him making arbitration = 6 years/20m contract basically, compared to Upton's 5 years/49.5m contract. It's not about cutting corners, but rather "can the team improve more using that extra money elsewhere"
It doesn't help his own blown is an exact manifestation of all my worries. And I'm not saying Morrison > Upton. Upton most definitely is better. But their value is closer then their ability due to contract, and I'm still holding onto Nolasco 2008 repeat with his peripherals.
High K rates are always concerning regardless of who it's from. Like his brother, he's patient but his horrible contact rates.
The biggest asset of his game comes from his ability to hit for a high BABIP. When you're biggest asset is something that's very volatile, that's worrisome to me. It's the reason I'm scared of a bad Hanley season every year (And look at what happened through the majority of this season): It's very easy to have a bad season because shit happens outside of your control. Yeah, he does have patience, but we're not talking great patience. And he does have power, but again, not great power. And yes, he is young. But power surges come later (i.e. Last year was the first year Cabrera saw a ISO spike, at 27 years of age), and it's certainly possible he's already maxed out physically. Ontop of which, his power numbers are less impressive considering the park he plays in.
My point is, I really don't know if you can say he's > Morrison offensively. I think highest-expected OPS of both is in the low/mid 800's. Upton does have more upside cuz of power but those strike out rates are likely going to hold him back from being able to be a superstar steadily, and those same contact problem gives him a better chance of burning out.
The difference is defense. Morrison sucks, he very likely won't even be average. The difference there is going to be between 10-20 runs (let's just go 15). They're actually even on the basepaths though going by BP's method of judging first to third et al, so nothing there. But that puts Upton at a "60" point advantage in OPS with his superior defense.
The other difference though is money, which can't be ignored. 3 more seasons of Morrison at the minimum plus 3 more seasons of him making arbitration = 6 years/20m contract basically, compared to Upton's 5 years/49.5m contract. It's not about cutting corners, but rather "can the team improve more using that extra money elsewhere"
It doesn't help his own blown is an exact manifestation of all my worries. And I'm not saying Morrison > Upton. Upton most definitely is better. But their value is closer then their ability due to contract, and I'm still holding onto Nolasco 2008 repeat with his peripherals.
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