Justin Upton for Morrison, Nolasco?

[Big Z]

The D'Backs will seek at least four or five players in return for Upton, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. He believes perhaps three of those players would have to be big league ready.

[Bobbob1313]

Ricky, Leo, Weapon X, Sean West. Do the thing.

[Valid]

Ricky, Leo, Weapon X, Sean West. Do the thing.

Excuse my ignorance, but who is "Weapon X?"

[Ramp]

Ryan Reynolds/Deadpool

[Bobbob1313]

Logan.

[lou]

Established big league player, two top 10 prospects, and a low level. Plus throw in.

Ok so Nolasco is a little bit better and projectionable than a normal big leaguer, so let's lower one of top 10 prospect, to a second top 50-75 style prospect as a result.

Nolasco, Morrison (top 10 kind of guy), West/James/Hand (top 75 type of guy), let's increase the low level to Mharinez/Ceda (pretty god damn good RP prospect), and they can have Hopper, who actually would be a top 4 reliever on that team...

I mean, this frees up so much god damn money with Nolasco we could sign whoever in free agency. This would be such a win if this could happen.

[MiamiHomer]

Established big league player, two top 10 prospects, and a low level. Plus throw in.

Ok so Nolasco is a little bit better and projectionable than a normal big leaguer, so let's lower one of top 10 prospect, to a second top 50-75 style prospect as a result.

Nolasco, Morrison (top 10 kind of guy), West/James/Hand (top 75 type of guy), let's increase the low level to Mharinez/Ceda (pretty god damn good RP prospect), and they can have Hopper, who actually would be a top 4 reliever on that team...

I mean, this frees up so much god damn money with Nolasco we could sign whoever in free agency. This would be such a win if this could happen.

I think we are so setting up ourselves for an epic letdown when this doesn't happen.

[Ralph]

I won't let this happen.

So you dont how up for Lebronica but for a rumor about Nolasco you do?

[Bobbob1313]

I don't know what you are talking about, Homer. That is just my 80's motorola cell phone in my pocket.

[Big Z]

I think the demands for Upton are very high, but we are one of the teams that might actually be able to pull this off.

I'm sure LoMO/Nolasco/Nunez gets it done though.

In Beinfest we trust.

[lou]

I think we are so setting up ourselves for an epic letdown when this doesn't happen.

Well, to counter myself, it wouldn't be the worst thing to not have $14 million on the books 2014 and 2015, even if it's happen.

We'd be banking hard on projection because he has that money due to him no matter what happens.

[wanks1212]

by Dave Cameron - November 16, 2010

With Kevin Towers back at the helm of a Major League franchise, we can be assured of one thing – he’ll create enough trade rumors to keep Tim Dierkes busy for life. If loose lips really did sink ships, Towers could take out an armada in a matter of minutes. Today’s rumor du jour is that the Diamondbacks will be willing to listen to calls for young right fielder Justin Upton. In reality, most every GM is willing to listen to calls for most every player on their roster, so this probably doesn’t mean anything. But, just for fun, let’s figure out what Upton might be worth if Arizona really did put him on the market.

Every discussion has to start with his age. He turned 23 in August, so most organizations still have highly regarded prospects older than he is, and yet, he’s already accumulated +7.7 WAR in what amounts to about three big league seasons. Even with his step back in 2010, he was an above major league right fielder at a time when most kids his age are trying to prove themselves in Double-A.

So, while we can dissect Upton’s strengths and weaknesses based on his big league performance to date, we have to keep his youth in mind. Most players who get to the big leagues as quickly as Upton turn out to be very good players, or even superstars. His potential is obvious.

However, there is a gap between what Upton could be and what he currently is. His blend of power and athleticism has allowed him to succeed despite a lack of contact, but if he’s going to make the leap to the next level, he’s going to have to figure out how to stop striking out so often. In fact, Upton is the only player in major league history to strike out 400 times by the end of his age 22 season.

Even if you lower the bar too 300 strikeouts at this point in a career, only Jose Canseco whiffed with anything approaching the same consistency – 24.6 percent of his plate appearances resulted in strikeouts, still trailing the 25.9 percent mark set by Upton so far. If you drop down to 200 strikeouts, you finally find three players with a higher strikeout rate than Justin Upton through age 22 – his brother B.J (26.3%), Sammy Sosa (26.3%), and Reggie Jackson (29.0%).

Those comparisons are a bit of a mixed bag. Canseco and Sosa have obvious clouds hanging over their heads, while the elder Upton hasn’t turned into the player that Tampa Bay was hoping for as of yet. Jackson is the guy who offers hope, as he got his contact problems under control in his mid-20s and developed into one of the best sluggers of all time.

Trading for Upton comes with a huge potential payoff, but reaching superstar status now looks a little less likely than it did a year or two ago. So, while a team acquiring Upton could hope for a big return, they’d also have to keep in mind that he might end up settling in as a good-not-great player. Let’s look at both scenarios and his estimated value for both over the next five years.

Good Player, Not A Superstar

2011 – +3.5 WAR, $17.5 million value, $4.25 million salary
2012 – +4.0 WAR, $20.8 million value, $6.75 million salary
2013 – +4.5 WAR, $24.8 million value, $9.75 million salary
2014 – +4.5 WAR, $25.7 million value, $14.25 million salary
2015 – +5.0 WAR, $30.0 million value, $14.5 million salary

Total: +21.5 WAR, $118.7 million value, $49.5 million salary

That puts Upton at about $70 million in surplus value over what his contract will pay him between 2011 and 2015.

Upton Becomes Elite

2011 – +4.5 WAR, $22.5 million value, $4.25 million salary
2012 – +5.0 WAR, $26.0 million value, $6.75 million salary
2013 – +5.5 WAR, $30.25 million value, $9.75 million salary
2014 – +6.0 WAR, $34.25 million value, $14.25 million salary
2015 – +6.5 WAR, $39.0 million value, $14.5 million salary

Total: +27.5 WAR, $152.0 million value, $49.5 million salary

In the best case scenario outcome, Upton is worth over $100 million beyond what he’ll be paid by the time he reaches free agency. This is the Reggie Jackson payoff, essentially. And this is why every team in baseball will at least be exploring whether Upton is priced to move or not.

These are not the only two outcomes, of course. He could regress (ZIPS lists his number one comparison as Danny Tartabull, for instance) or get injured. My expectations of continued salary inflation over the next five years could be wildly wrong. Teams will have to look at the broad spectrum of possible returns if they give up the farm to get Upton. However, given that he’s already a good player and wouldn’t need to improve much to be worth well more than his contract, and that he offers the upside to be among the best values in the game, the market for Upton is likely to be overflowing with interested teams.

And in the end, I expect Arizona will come to the realization that they should probably just hang onto their young right fielder.

the graphs of fans

[Beef]

This was the best part of the article

Today’s rumor du jour is that the Diamondbacks will be willing to listen to calls for young right fielder Justin Upton. In reality, most every GM is willing to listen to calls for most every player on their roster, so this probably doesn’t mean anything

[Party]

I was not totally behind this when I first heard about it, but after seeing Upton's contract it's almost a perfect move to make. In a perfect world, I deal Gaby first, but having Upton's production and defense in CF for another 4-5 years would be awesome.

Ricky is not going to do well in Arizona.

[MiamiHomer]

ORLANDO, Fla. -- Kevin Towers earned a reputation of being a gunslinger in his years as general manager of the Padres, and he's taken that approach with him to the D-backs. And now he's open for business.

No player on the current D-backs roster is untouchable, and in recent days at this week's General Managers Meetings, he has been judging interest from other clubs in right fielder Justin Upton and shortstop Stephen Drew, among others. The Yankees and Red Sox reportedly have emerged as suitors for Upton.

"All the years I was in San Diego, Trevor Hoffman had a no-trade clause and I still listened to interest in him," Towers said. "We're in the information business. You never know when a team wants to grossly overpay because they think they're one player away. You need to listen. If the right deal presents itself, I want to be prepared and ready."

About interest in Upton, in particular, Towers added: "Right now it's just people kicking the tires. Not with just him, but with several of our players. Nothing is imminent or close."

Last spring, the D-backs inked Upton to a six-year, $52.25 million contract, in which his salary is scheduled to jump from $500,000 to $4.25 million in 2011. Towers is committed to rebuilding the bullpen and adding a closer, and the latter he said would more than likely come via a trade rather than the free-agent market. He'd also like another starting pitcher, a left fielder and more bench strength.

The D-backs are also committed to cutting the player payroll from $75.5 million at the start of this past season to about $60 million in 2011. It's no wonder that Towers is listening to offers.

Upton, at 23, is a five-tool player with oodles of potential, but he struck out 152 times in 133 games as all his offensive numbers tumbled from 2009. The team whiffed a record 1,529 times and lost 97 games to finish last in the National League West for the second consecutive season.

Upton played only four times after Aug. 30 because of an ongoing left shoulder injury that he hurt taking a swing at the plate.

Like during his time with the Padres from 1996-2009, Towers is listening for deals within reason, because, "you never know -- you could come up with two players with a lot of upside potential."

"At the press conference, I told our fans that we'd like to rebuild this in a hurry," Towers said, talking about the day this past September when he was introduced as the team's new GM. "I'd like to compete and hopefully win the division in 2011. So any move that we make is going to be for more Major League-ready players. I'm not looking to acquire A-ball prospects right now."

In that vein, Towers added, he'd rather build on the core of the big league club than tear it down to reach the same objective.

"I think we underachieved as a ballclub last year," he said. "There is a lot of talent. I like the nucleus of the club. Look at Upton, Drew, Chris Young, Kelly Johnson, Miguel Montero and the four young pitchers that we have. We should be able to turn this thing around. We're not rebuilding. We have a lot of our better prospects at the lower levels. I'm very optimistic that with a few key additions, we could be at the top of the division rather than the bottom next year."

via mlb.com