Why Was Volstad Really Sent Down?

[HUGG]

Well, the coaching staff certainly had nothing to do with this.

[Ramp]

Gave up on him? We're going on 1.5 years of him not being very good. Not to mention his last 6 starts, where he had a 6.37era and a .301/.353/.480 againt. Great, he walked just 11 in those 29.2 innings of work but he also gave up 37 hits. 11 of those went for extra bases (no idea if this is good or not, figured I'd put it here anyway). In those last 6 starts, he's gone 6 innings just as much as he's gone 4 or less (twice).

He needs to go to AAA so someone can take a look at him and try to figure him out. He'll get more one on one time down there too.

I get that you are upset that you can't watch him play, but this is bordering on a bit of a sickness here. Hanley-forbid he gets traded, you might do something totally haywire.

[nny]

You send Chris Volstad down because he's got to be better than this.

I don't really think so.

His strike out rates are where they'd be expected to be based off his MILB track record (In fact, they are a bit higher). His walk rates are where they'd be expected to be based off his MILB track record. His HR rates (This year, his career line is still rather fudged cuz of last year) are where they are expected to be. He's giving up about 5% more FBs than you'd expect but you wonder if that plays into the whole more strike out than expected thing.

I think he was just vastly overrated. You look at his MILB track record, you say, this guy is a #3-#4. And he's been a #4. The chances of him turning into a Derek Lowe were never too good.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

To me, it doesn't seem that way. Edwin Rodriguez has only been here for, what two of Chris' starts? He gets here and Volstad goes to AAA so Edwin can bring back Hopper, who he had in AAA.

[Ramp]

Yeaaaaaa

Managers in general, especially on this team, don't really get to make those decisions.

[HUGG]

If Edwin Rodriguez had that kind of power, he still wouldn't, because Bobby Valentine would be our manager right now.

[Beef]

To me, it doesn't seem that way. Edwin Rodriguez has only been here for, what two of Chris' starts? He gets here and Volstad goes to AAA so Edwin can bring back Hopper, who he had in AAA.

EDWIIIIIIIIIIIIIIN

[FishFanInPA]

well actually Hugg, wouldnt Fredi Gonzalez still be the manager?

[HUGG]

No, Joe Girardi would be.
--------------------
THIS IS GIRARDI'S FAULT!

FUCKING GIRARDI

[emkayseven]

I don't really think so.

His strike out rates are where they'd be expected to be based off his MILB track record (In fact, they are a bit higher). His walk rates are where they'd be expected to be based off his MILB track record. His HR rates (This year, his career line is still rather fudged cuz of last year) are where they are expected to be. He's giving up about 5% more FBs than you'd expect but you wonder if that plays into the whole more strike out than expected thing.

I think he was just vastly overrated. You look at his MILB track record, you say, this guy is a #3-#4. And he's been a #4. The chances of him turning into a Derek Lowe were never too good.

I think the biggest problem was hi rookie year where his ERA looked so great but he vastly outperformed his FIP and xFIP

[nny]

But even as a MILBer people loved to say future ace.

Obviously not everyone, others were grounded and said mid-rotation starter.

I agree though that his rookie year is what got all the people who were titttly-tottlying between the two then jumped on the ace bandwagon, which then created extremely unfair expectations out of him.

[Fish and Chips]

http://marlinmaniac.com/2010/07/07/v...moted-but-why/

After last night’s debacle of an outing for Chris Volstad, the Marlins demoted him to Triple-A, bringing up Burke Badenhop. In the linked article, it is mentioned that in Volstad’s last 11 starts, he is 1-6, and the overall team record is 1-10. In addition, Volstad has a 5.22 ERA in that time span.

I’m as glad as the next guy to see the Hopper back in the majors, though I would have preferred Rick VandenHurk to brought up to start. However, while the callup is not disputable, sending down Volstad is absolutely questionable. While the results may have appeared ugly, Volstad’s performance so far this year has been just about what we expected given a little regression.

Take a look at these Volstad lines:

Volstad 1: 15.6% K%, 8.2% UIBB%, 49.5% GB%, .291 BABIP
Volstad 2: 16.0% K%, 8.1% UIBB%, 48.4% GB%, .298 BABIP

Volstad 1 is his 2009 line, while Volstad 2 is his 2010 line. I’m not here to pretend that those four stats are all that matters when it comes to evaluating a pitcher, but you have to believe that he is doing some very similar things as compared to last year if he is getting these sorts of similar results.

The one major difference between Volstad’s 2009 and 2010 seasons is the one difference everyone wanted the most: he’s allowed fewer home runs in 2010. Volstad has allowed 10 homers in 98 innings (420 non-IBB batters faced), a rate of 2.4%. Last year, that rate was 4.3%. According to BIS batted-ball classifications, Volstad has allowed essentially the same rate of fly balls in 2009 and 2010, and this season he has allowed only 9.7% of those fly balls to leave the park.

These results are so similar from this year to last that the skill-based ERA estimators of highest esteem, xFIP and SIERA, both generally agree on how well Volstad has pitched between this season and last season.

Volstad, 2009: 4.35 xFIP, 4.39 SIERA
Volstad, 2010: 4.43 xFIP, 4.42 SIERA

Combine that with a projected 4.45 FIP (4.60 ERA, if you’re interested) going forward by ZiPS rest-of-season projection, and you have the makings of a slightly below-average starter. In my last series preview, I had Volstad, based on projected FIP, as a .468 win% pitcher. That is not great for a starter, but it is most certainly above replacement level and definitely not someone who should be demoted.

In comparison, take a look at Nate Robertson, a pitcher who is significantly worse, but one who we cannot demote without designating him for assignment and exposing him for pickup by other teams. Robertson projects at a similar 4.43 FIP going forward, but also has the issue of a .328 BABIP to worry about. ZiPS has him at a 5.03 ERA the rest of the season. Based on xFIP/SIERA, that is not too far off of how he has pitched this year (5.00 xFIP, 4.92 SIERA).

So what has caused Volstad to give up so many runs so far this year? Part of the problem in that 11-game stretch was BABIP, as Volstad gave up a .346 BABIP after starting the year at .214. That sort of stuff fluctuates, but based on his career, we can guess a BABIP of around .300; ZiPS projects a .306 going forward. This sort of thing wasn’t Volstad’s primary problem, however. Essentially, he has been the same pitcher the last two seasons, with significantly different home run rates. If indeed he has regained some semblance of control over his home run issues, than whatever is “plaguing” him now was probably plaguing him last season. Now, the team is planning on sacrificing two weeks worth of his production for nothing? It makes me wonder what management is thinking at times. At this point, Volstad is nothing special, but it does not mean he is unproductive.

[emkayseven]

that guy should read this thread in regards to this line

Now, the team is planning on sacrificing two weeks worth of his production for nothing?

[Bobbob1313]

We might lose 1 start from him depending on how we set up the rotation. That is not the end of the world.

Hell, there's a decent chance if he has a good start or two that he doesn't even burn an option.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

This is just wonderful. Not even the Sabermeticians and the guys that write the fantasy baseball anaylsis can figure out why he was sent down. I have never been more unhappy with our ownership/ front office as I have been since they fired Fredi and I've been through the fire sales and the firing of Giradi. They are making really stupid decisions this year.