Gaby Sanchez Wins 1B Starting Job

[Metes]

I only want Cody driving in runs for us if he was supposed to. If he can't offer a good explanation why, he really should give those runs back.

[Bobbob1313]

Let's look into it a little more:

2006 Men on: 139 PA, .869 OPS
2006 Empty: 159 PA, .600 OPS
2007 Men on: 84 PA, 1.267 OPS
2007 Empty: 113 PA, .921 OPS
2008 Men on: 214 PA, .834 OPS
2008 Empty: 292 PA, .783 OPS
2009 Men on: 298 PA, .832 OPS
2009 Empty: 306 PA, .749 OPS

So much of the discrepancy is the result of a massive amount of success in an 84 PA sample size in 2007. He's been better with men on base over the course of his career, but Absolute Zero probably overstates it a bit because 2007 was such a colossally huge small sample size issue that skews everything.

The sample size with RISP and RISP/2 outs are pretty small, though not entirely insignificant. Still it's probably too small to take much really out of them, especially when you are talking about a handful of opportunities scattered over three seasons. 300 PA appearances over the course of 3 years is a pretty small sample, 147 even less so, especially when the numbers have been prone to some fluctuation over the years.

I'm not sure how much can be taken out of 500 (Or 300 or 150) PA over the course of 3 seasons. It's entirely within the realm of possibility to think that he could have a bad year in those situations this year and have a better year with the bases empty, and that could cause his overall numbers to fluctuate. 500 PA may not seem like a small sample, but it really is. For the most part, major league baseball players don't show a consistent, year to year performance difference in different situations. As PA get larger, these things tend to normalize.

[Metes]

Do the RBIs still count?

[Chewford]

Only if you don't make him give them back.

[Bobbob1313]

Do the RBIs still count?

I think you are (perhaps intentionally) missing the point.

Of course the RBIs still count, but that's not really the question.

It's not necessarily about the validity of his past performance, it's about attempting to see if this is a repeatable skill. He has, thus far, shown an ability to increase his performance with RISP and runners on base.

The question is whether it is something he is likely to continue doing in the future. Baseball history suggests that this is unlikely, as most players regress to the mean in all situations, as "skill" rises above random variance. His RISP and Runners On numbers are still very much within the realm of random variance due to relatively small sample sizes.

[Metes]

Soooooooo what you're saying is we won't know what he does until he does it?

[Bobbob1313]

I'm saying we should never discuss anything that hasn't happened because somebody is going to respond sarcastically to it.

[Chewford]

No way! They would!?

[Bobbob1313]

So yeah.

Cody might be a better hitter with RISP and all that, but we don't know enough to say definitively. That being said, we likely do have better options for the role of cleanup hitter, and I think Uggla fits in better with what a 5 hitter "should" be.

[Metes]

Well first you say he didn't have good enough contact to be an RBI guy, when last year his contact rate was higher than A-Rod, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder.

I assume this is all framed in the discussion of whether or not he should hit in a middle-of-the-order capacity, then someone brings in stats that say he hit well with RISP and such. Then you assert that because of small sample size, those stats don't mean much due to variance. So ultimately we're sitting in this place where you can't prove that he will continue to hit RBIs, and you can't prove that he won't continue to hit RBIs. So I don't really see the point.

[Bobbob1313]

Well, Cody's K rate was worse than Gonzalez's, pretty much the same as Rodriguez's and only marginally worse than Fielder's, so what are you going by as far as contact rate? Include the fact that all of those guys are far better hitters than he is, and I'm not sure that's a good comparison.

And you don't see the point in what? My posts? This discussion at all?

I don't believe he has a "skill" at hitting with runners on and all that, due to the fact that his numbers are based on very small sample sizes and that with more PA it likely will regress to his overall numbers.

Going back to my first post on the subject, I believe his skill set is best suited for a role out side of the middle of the order, due to the fact that he is pretty mediocre at getting on base and he's going to hit for power no matter what. Lower the negative impact of his low on base percentage as much as possible, since our lineup is likely to have pretty decent OBP guys up and down (with him being the lone notable exception). To this end, I think his history with RISP is irrelevant because I think it is not a repeatable skill, especially at the level he has been at.

[Metes]

Wasn't comparing Ross to those other hitters, just refuting your claim that he's not a contact guy, given that you're the one who stated that as the reason he isn't an "RBI" guy. I was saying that he had a higher contact rate than these other 100+ RBI guys. Of course they're better hitters than Cody. But if you're debasing his RBI potential based on his contact rate, there it is.

As far as to whether it is or isn't a repeatable skill hitting well with RISP, I think it's a subjective argument and I tend to side with actual historical results, rather than believing regression is bound to happen. So there's that. No interest in going around in more circles on that.

[Beef]

I don't want Cody batting 8th

[Bobbob1313]

Wasn't comparing Ross to those other hitters, just refuting your claim that he's not a contact guy, given that you're the one who stated that as the reason he isn't an "RBI" guy. I was saying that he had a higher contact rate than these other 100+ RBI guys. Of course they're better hitters than Cody. But if you're debasing his RBI potential based on his contact rate, there it is.

As far as to whether it is or isn't a repeatable skill hitting well with RISP, I think it's a subjective argument and I tend to side with actual historical results, rather than believing regression is bound to happen. So there's that. No interest in going around in more circles on that.

Contact isn't all that goes into accumulating RBI. A lot of it is opportunity, but generally speaking, lacking a guy like Hanley, A-Rod, Pujols, etc who just kill it, you want guys who make a good amount of contact to put the ball in play with runners on. I think a guy like Jorge Cantu is better suited for the cleanup spot on our team than Cody.

[Ramp]

Cantu does absolutely nothing for me in the heart of the order. I'd rather him bat 8th than Cody