Gaby Sanchez Wins 1B Starting Job

[Bobbob1313]

Logan winning in the all important ISO categories.

[FishFF]

Logan looked so lost at the plate today, off speed had him looking silly.

[Swifty]

Poor LoMo

[Metes]

Lorenzo LoMos

[Bobbob1313]

Sanchez ahead of Morrison in Florida Marlins first-base battle

By CLARK SPENCER
cspencer@MiamiHerald.com

SARASOTA -- If slumping Logan Morrison doesn't pick up the pace at the plate, he'll come out on the short end in his battle with Gaby Sanchez for the starting job at first base.

Florida Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez, though quick to note that he hasn't given one look at either player's Grapefruit League numbers, said the decision won't be difficult if one player holds a distinct statistical edge over the other come the end of spring training.

``I've always said I want both of them to hit .390,'' Gonzalez said. ``But, obviously, if one's hitting .390 and the other's hitting .057 -- competition is competition. If one guy's hitting .380 and the other guy hits .060, we can't say, `Wait a second, the other guy makes the team.' ''

At the moment, Sanchez is ahead on numbers. He has gone 6 for 15 and walked twice but has not driven in a run. Morrison is 1 for 18 with two walks and three RBI.

Gonzalez said his main concern now is to make sure the two candidates end up with about an equal number of at bats.

``I haven't even looked at the batting averages,'' Gonzalez said. ``I haven't decided one way or the other, or rooting for one guy or the other. I'm just letting 'em play.

``There's always a chance that neither wins the job, Jorge Cantu slides back to first base, and someone else -- Rule 5 pick Jorge Jimenez, perhaps -- winds up at third.

``A lot can happen,'' Gonzalez said of the Morrison/Sanchez competition at first. ``The only thing that separates them for me is one is left-handed [Morrison] and other is right-handed [Sanchez]. They're that close. If we start breaking them down, it's splitting hairs.''

Neither Gaby Sanchez nor Logan Morrison
is ahead in race for first-base job

By Joe Capozzi

SARASOTA — A little more than a week into spring competition, manager Fredi Gonzalez said there's no clear front-runner for the first base job, despite the disparity in statistics.

Gaby Sanchez is batting .400 (6-for-15 with two walks) and Logan Morrison is batting .056 (1-for-18 with two walks), but Gonzalez said it's way too early to make any assumptions about who's likely to start the season at first base.

"I'm not even looking at the numbers right now. Just let them go out and play. A lot can happen," Gonzalez said Friday.

"The only thing that separates them for me is one bats left-handed (Morrison) and the other is right-handed (Sanchez). They're that close, for me. If you want to start breaking them down, we're going to be splitting hairs."

Gonzalez said he doesn't want Morrison to feel any extra pressure because he's not hitting well after one week.

"I've always said I want both of them to hit .390," Gonzalez said, "but obviously if one is hitting .390 and the other is hitting .057 (later in camp): Competition is competition."

Gonzalez has been impressed with infielder Jorge Jimenez, who's 2-for-9 (.222) in six games. Jimenez could start at third base, moving Jorge Cantu to first.

Jimenez is a rule 5 draft pick, so he'll get offered back to Boston if he doesn't make the Marlins' roster.

So which is it?

All logic points to Gaby being in the lead, but I keep getting a feeling they are going to go with Jorge Jimenez, which really bothers me. Every knock you could have on Gaby at this point can be made of Jimenez, except that Jimenez has even less power. I don't think he's going to be a very good major leaguer, but I think they want the lineup to be balanced, or something silly.

JJ2 could be a nice bench bat. He'll probably make nice contact and might be able to do a decent Ross Gload imitation this season, which i'm fine with. Try him out in the outfield and see if he can at least play there in a pinch and I'm fine with him as the LHer off the bench/starting against tough RHPers.

But at this point, I think you've got to give Gaby the shot unless Logan really heats up and Gaby really starts sucking.

[Swifty]

It's not Logan's anymore, but that doesn't mean it is Gaby's either. No matter who breaks camp as the starter, I'll bet money that he isn't the starter come August 1.

[Bobbob1313]

I don't think it was ever Logan's job.

The team needs to see what it has in Gaby, even if they don't want to. I don't know why it is that they don't like him, but I'm not sure what else he can do.

Let's look at some other options:

Mike Lowell

And that's about it.

Assuming the Sox pay his entire salary, Lowell probably is worth starting over Gaby and having Gaby as a contingency in AAA. But I think there's a very thin line between Gaby and Lowell, and if the difference is like $2 mil a year for Lowell or Gaby, I think there's much more value in Gaby making the minimum.

[Party]

If there is no clear winner or Gaby wins just because Logan bombs, Mike Lowell is my guy. I know I've said this before, but if it's going to be Fredi's do or die season he should have legitimate pieces to work with. Not Jimenez or an average Gaby Sanchez.

I realize this is putting to much weight in Gaby's ST stats.

[Swifty]

I don't think it was ever Logan's job.

The team needs to see what it has in Gaby, even if they don't want to. I don't know why it is that they don't like him, but I'm not sure what else he can do.

Let's look at some other options:

Mike Lowell

And that's about it.

Assuming the Sox pay his entire salary, Lowell probably is worth starting over Gaby and having Gaby as a contingency in AAA. But I think there's a very thin line between Gaby and Lowell, and if the difference is like $2 mil a year for Lowell or Gaby, I think there's much more value in Gaby making the minimum.

I don't agree with that at all. A year ago, was anyone clamoring for Ross Gload or openly mentioning him as an option?

The point isn't to name names, the point is, that at this time of year and with the roster crunch that inevitably falls on some teams, options are presented, how many depends on how desperate you are. If we're seriously considering Mike Lowell (and if Rosenthal is right that we called Delgado), I'd say that indicates we're pretty motivated to find a starter at an infield corner.

[Bobbob1313]

Ross Gload put up a .729 OPS last year. We have seriously overrated his value to this club because he had some key hits. He was mostly a waste when he started (.662 OPS).

Finding guys who can pinch hit when the rosters crunch is one thing. Ross Gloads are available, that's not a good comparison.

It's a lot harder to find starting caliber players at that point. I'm not 100% convinced that Mike Lowell will represent a real improvement for us, which is why I'm not clamoring for it.

If the Red Sox pay 90% of his salary and we only have to give up JJ2 and, like Tim Wood, then I'd do it. The problem is, if he's done, we aren't going to give up on him, whereas we'll have a much quicker leash with Gaby.

It's never a bad thing to have competition or depth, but if we add Lowell it's not going to be a competition. It's going to be Lowell's job unless he gets hurt or is Boner-esque.

We are motivated to find a corner player, and that's fine. Having those guys around is always a good idea. What I don't like is handing a starting job to a 36 year old who has missed 92 games over the past two years and has already had one trade voided this season because of a surgery. I don't want to give up anything worthwhile/pay a big salary for a question mark, and in my eyes Mike Lowell is as big a question mark as Gaby Sanchez at this point.

[Party]

If Mike Lowell is healthy, an .800 OPS is not out of the question. The only thing that keeps him from putting up those numbers are his knees. If his knees are shot, he is going to miss a significant amount of time for Gaby/Logan/Whoever to step in. It isn't completely like the Boner situation. Mike Lowell has a natural check that will determine whether he plays or not.

It is worth the gamble when a guy like Gaby in a best case scenario is going to OPS somewhere in the mid to upper 700s.
--------------------
For full disclosure, I've never been a huge Gaby fan which is why I'd rather go after Lowell first.

Err, not his knees but his hip.

[Bobbob1313]

I don't think Gaby's best case scenario is an OPS in the mid to upper 700s, though.

As far as projection systems go, Bill James has him for an .821 this season. CHONE and Marcel at .786.

BaseballProspectus' PECOTA system even deals with "Best case/worst case" scenarios in their projections:

Gaby's worst case scenario projection is pretty bad: .245/.317/.384 (.703)
his 50%: .261/.335/.419 (.754)
jis 90% (best case scenario): .294/.376/.509 (.885)

And his weighted mean, which is an aggregate of all of their projections (essentially what they consider the most likely scenario): .272/.331/.448 (.779)

For Lowell those numbers are:
Bill James: .795
Marcel: .795
CHONE: .757
BP worst case scenario: .261/.319/.407 (.728)
BP 50%: .274/.334/.443 (.777)
BP 90%: .308/.370/.551 (.921)
BP Weighted Mean: .286/.318/.478 (.796)

I think at this point, they are pretty similar. Gaby's going to have better OBP skills, Lowell will have more power.

So the question is do we think Lowell, coming off hip and thumb surgery at age 36, gives us better defense and if he does, how much we can get the Red Sox to pay of his salary.

Note: Mike Lowell has not played in a Spring Training game yet.

[Party]

Red Sox were willing to pay 50% of his 2010 salary ($12 million) in November. I'm on board if the Marlins were on the hook for $4 millionish.

[Bobbob1313]

He's way too much of an injury risk to pay 4 million+ for, in my opinion.

This isn't a guy who is a slam dunk to perform when healthy, and the only question is whether he'll be on the field. Even if Lowell is on the field, there's no guarantee that you're getting production.

Wait until the day before opening day and low ball the shit out of them.

[Party]

That is how I expect it to happen.