PECOTA Predicts Last Place Finish For Fish

[nny]

Not to totally change the topic of this, but interesting that Hammer is projected to sport a .809 OPS when he's been well over that the last four seasons.

my assumption is age 31

god it's sad to think Hammer's MLB career will probably be pretty god damn short because we kept him in the minors forever.

[Ramp]

atleast he's starting to get paiiiiiiiid

and so what if he's 31, he's coming off his best season at age 30 (seriously hard to believe he's that old already)

[Bobbob1313]

Not to totally change the topic of this, but interesting that Hammer is projected to sport a .809 OPS when he's been well over that the last four seasons.

Well, he'll be 31 on opening day, so it's not crazy to think he'll regress a little. I think .809 is a little low, but I think .825 is probably realistic, and I think that the difference between .809 and .825 is practically nothing, so it's not that crazy.

And he put up a .543 OPS over the last month and a half of the season, and just an .820 for the last half of the season, with a .241 BA.

I think most signs point to him regressing, unless he can sustain his power surge from July and August over a whole season.

[Ramp]

nah, this is the year that OPS stays above .900

[Bobbob1313]

Is Colorado in the market for a DH?

[Party]

What is the margin of error for PECOTA?

If it is +/- 4 wins, to the average fan it should serve as a good barometer of what your team is or isn't.

PECOTA is like a 5 day hurricane forecast. More often then not it is accurate but the swath is still an area 150-200 miles wide.

[Ramp]

Is Colorado in the market for a DH?

that doesn't make sense

[Bobbob1313]

Exactly.

[Ramp]

so he's the best then

[lou]

They just updated it for playing time and pitching, putting us at 81-81 and third place. Given that they acknowledge that random "noise" can affect records by 6 wins one way or the other without really being a product of the team, this seems reasonable.

That sound completely correct, with improvement coming if the SP grows up.