PECOTA Predicts Last Place Finish For Fish

[Bobbob1313]

East	                        W	L	RS	RA	AVG	OBP	SLG
 	 Atlanta Braves	        85	77	745	702	.268	.344	.416
 	 Phil. Phillies	        85	77	784	743	.266	.342	.432
 	 Was. Nationals	        81	81	718	718	.252	.330	.406
 	 New York Mets	        78	84	756	786	.266	.338	.420
 	 Florida Marlins           76	86	763	809	.262	.339	.424

What's our policy on posting this kind of stuff? I can get rid of it if it's not kosher.

Pos	Order	Name 	       PT%	PA	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	VORP
LF	1	Chris Coghlan	80	640	.283	81	12	74	14	.363	.427	22.1
 	 	Brett Carroll	20	160	.240	38	12	44	1	.310	.424	3.0

CF	2	Cameron Maybin	80	625	.257	83	14	54	17	.346	.415	21.4
 	 	Cody Ross	15	117	.274	69	24	84	5	.346	.492	29.1
 
SS	3	Hanley Ramirez	85	648	.326	105	26	78	27	.415	.545	63.0
 	 	Emilio Boni	15	114	.259	71	3	34	18	.318	.345	-1.0

2B	4	Dan Uggla	90	669	.252	93	29	87	3	.359	.472	34.3
 	 	Emilio Boni	10	74	.259	71	3	34	18	.318	.345	-1.0

1B	5	Gaby Sanchez	40	289	.269	32	8	34	3	.349	.428	5.3
 	 	Jorge Cantu	30	217	.283	65	19	81	3	.352	.458	15.4
 	 	Logan Morrison	20	144	.266	15	4	16	1	.343	.424	2.0
 	 	Wes Helms	10	72	.254	19	5	29	0	.320	.367	0.6

3B	6	Jorge Cantu	50	352	.283	65	19	81	3	.352	.458	15.4
 	 	Emilio Boni	35	246	.259	71	3	34	18	.318	.345	-1.0
 	 	Wes Helms	10	70	.254	19	5	29	0	.320	.367	0.6
 	 	
RF	7	Cody Ross	65	446	.274	69	24	84	5	.346	.492	29.1
 	 	Brett Carroll	15	103	.240	38	12	44	1	.310	.424	3.0
 	 	Michael Stanton	15	103	.238	13	6	15	0	.321	.492	3.2
 	 	Emilio Boni	5	34	.259	71	3	34	18	.318	.345	-1.0

C	8	John Baker	50	333	.255	37	8	39	1	.336	.388	9.6
 	 	Ronny Paulino	45	300	.268	28	7	35	1	.343	.412	11.1
 	 	Brett Hayes	5	33	.227	3	1	3	0	.280	.344	-0.3

I think Gaby hits a couple of more doubles and beats their slugging prediction and I would expect Baker to be a little better across the board facing mostly RHP, but I can't say I disagree too much with any of them.

[Jewbility]

what's new? We defy the odds every year

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

what's new? We defy the odds every year

This.

When was the last time we were ever picked to not finish last? When was the last time that we actually did finish last? This is part of why I hate computer models.

[Beef]

Because they are never right?

I hate human models for that reason too

[Jewbility]

ya especially the male ones

[Bobbob1313]

This.

When was the last time we were ever picked to not finish last? When was the last time that we actually did finish last? This is part of why I hate computer models.

2 years ago we finished in last place.

And I think last year PECOTA had us in 4th place.

I've never understood your whole "I hate computer models" thing.

[Party]

Well that settles it. Season over.

[Swifty]

Fire up the busses!

[Bobbob1313]

They just updated it for playing time and pitching, putting us at 81-81 and third place. Given that they acknowledge that random "noise" can affect records by 6 wins one way or the other without really being a product of the team, this seems reasonable.
--------------------

Pos	Name              IP	GS	QS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
1	Josh Johnson	155	25	15	3.71	1.27	150	49	16	136	10	7	0	31.8
2	Ricky Nolasco	163	27	16	3.82	1.20	155	42	18	146	10	8	0	31.3
3	Anibal Sanchez	107	20	10	4.48	1.48	109	52	12	82	6	6	0	12.9
4	Sean West	51	10	4	5.29	1.62	55	28	8	39	2	3	0	1.5
5	Chris Volstad	161	27	13	4.70	1.44	175	59	21	96	8	10	0	15.3
Spot	Rick VandenHurk	125	24	12	4.38	1.40	121	56	16	113	7	7	0	16.3
Spot	Andrew Miller	118	23	11	4.53	1.48	117	59	12	97	6	7	0	13.4
Spot	Clay Hensley	30	6	2	5.25	1.58	34	15	4	19	1	2	0	1.1
Closer	Leo Nunez	60	0	0	3.84	1.30	59	20	7	45	4	3	32	11.3
Setup	Dan Meyer	60	0	0	4.60	1.46	60	28	8	51	3	3	4	6.4
Setup	Renyel Pinto	60	0	0	4.21	1.49	54	35	7	56	3	3	2	9.0
Mid	Brian Sanches	60	0	0	4.10	1.35	58	23	7	57	4	3	2	9.7
Mid	Jose Veras	50	0	0	3.92	1.39	44	25	5	49	3	2	0	9.1
Long	Burke Badenhop	60	0	0	4.16	1.37	60	22	6	40	4	3	0	9.3
Long	Hayden Penn	50	0	0	5.07	1.51	54	23	8	39	2	3	0	2.7
Long	Ryan Tucker	60	0	0	5.14	1.58	65	30	8	37	3	4	0	2.8
Long	Tim Wood	49	0	0	4.68	1.47	51	22	6	33	3	3	0	4.7
Long	Cris Martinez	35	0	0	5.22	1.48	40	12	5	17	2	2	0	1.3

The original pitcher projections were kind of crappy, these are the updated ones and they are a significant improvement, imo. The initial one had everyone in the bullpen except Leo above a 4.5 ERA and both JJ and Ricky with +4 ERAs.

I'd expect Volstad and West to have a lower ERA, by about .25 runs each. I like Rick Vanden Hurk as a 5th starter, but he could kill people in relief. I think Dan Meyer's ERA is too high, but it's not unreasonable considering that last season was the first time he'd matched his minor league success in the majors.

If Tucker is pitching out of the pen, I think he'll be significantly better than that, also. His K/9 seems awfully low.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

2 years ago we finished in last place.

And I think last year PECOTA had us in 4th place.

I've never understood your whole "I hate computer models" thing.

2 years ago, we finished in third, behind the Phillies and the Mets.

Last year, we finished with the best record in franchise history but were projected to finish 4th. This year, we're returning essentially the same team that just won 87 games and the computer originally put us last? That's why I hate the computer models. How can they be that far off?

I also have a really hard time believing that the Nats are a .500 team.

[nny]

No, it has us third. The original model they had up was borked, now it's fixed.

[Beef]

2 years ago, we finished in third, behind the Phillies and the Mets.

Last year, we finished with the best record in franchise history but were projected to finish 4th. This year, we're returning essentially the same team that just won 87 games and the computer originally put us last? That's why I hate the computer models. How can they be that far off?

I also have a really hard time believing that the Nats are a .500 team.

How do you feel about human predictions?

[Bobbob1313]

2007 we finished in last place. That was the last time we finished in last place.

Last year, we finished with 87 wins, which is not the best record in franchise history.

And we had an 82-80 Pythagoreon record, which shows us being somewhat lucky based on runs scored. It's not crazy to think that the safe prediction for us is 81-81. We have, I think, a higher difference between what we could be and what weprobably are next year. It's safe to assume we are a .500 team with a higher ceiling than most.

[nny]

Last year, we finished with the best record in franchise history but were projected to finish 4th. This year, we're returning essentially the same team that just won 87 games and the computer originally put us last? That's why I hate the computer models. How can they be that far off?

So you can predict the exact amount every team will win?

Do you have no idea what random variance is?

Like you say, we're returning the same team. it has us at -1 run differential after being +2 last year. So yes, it's saying we're going to perform basically the same next year. Only this time we're not going to lead all of baseball in 1-run wins.

I mean, the only reason you don't like them is because they don't back your opinion. If they said the Marlins were going to win the division you'd be using it to support your opinion. Just like stats and Volstad: if they say he's good, stats are good. If it says he's bad, stats are bad.

[Bobbob1313]

Shit happens.