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So keeping Uggla means we actually have a rather solid idea of what our line up will be, as only one spot really is up for grabs that matters, and that's more or less interchangeable.
Overall, not much of a difference from last year. Last season we finished with a .268/.340/.416/.756 line (.339 wOBA), and this calls for a .263/.336/.427/.763 line (.340 wOBA). After scoring 788 runs last year, this would ask for 796 runs. Defensively, we're still quite bad, mostly thanks to Cantu at 3b and Baker at C. One of the good things though is that we shouldn't have a single "base clogger", filled instead with a few real good guys and the rest about average.
All in all, this puts us at about 71 wins, so our pitching would have to come up with about 10 wins to make us a winning team, 20 to put us in playoff contention. I'll look at pitching later.
So what can change for the offense? Well, for Hanley, Uggla, Cody, Cantu, and Baker we more or less know what we're getting. So that leaves the last 3 spots. Signing Delgado is about a +1 win advantage. Or, real optimistic, if Coghlan, Maybin, and Logan/Gaby can all managa to be mid-800 bats instead, we're now talking about 50 more runs scored. Like wise though, they could all tank, leaving us faltering.
Our depth is actually pretty decent though. Should Maybin or Coghlan falter, there's Carroll, Logan, Petersen, and Cousins, and one of those should be adequate enough. Like wise with 1B, we have depth there, thanks in part to being able to shift Cantu over.
Injury wise, the only place we would really be FUBAR'd is if Hanley is injured. Again there's the OF and 1B/3B depth, and Coghlan can shift to the IF if something were to happen to Uggla. And if Baker should go down, Paulino should be able to hold the fort down. In fact one could make the arguement that, because of defense, Paulino should be our starting Cather, but keep in mind his offensive numbers are jaded from facing almost exclusively LHP.
So more or less our offense all comes down to Hanley being Hanley, what else is knew.
Also, assume Bonifacio improves his SB rates to what they should be, and improves his offense to a more adequate mid-600 OPS range, there really wouldn't be much of a difference between him and Gaby starting. If we assume those two things happen, it's only about a win difference:
Of coarse, those two things would also have to happen.
Overall, not much of a difference from last year. Last season we finished with a .268/.340/.416/.756 line (.339 wOBA), and this calls for a .263/.336/.427/.763 line (.340 wOBA). After scoring 788 runs last year, this would ask for 796 runs. Defensively, we're still quite bad, mostly thanks to Cantu at 3b and Baker at C. One of the good things though is that we shouldn't have a single "base clogger", filled instead with a few real good guys and the rest about average.
All in all, this puts us at about 71 wins, so our pitching would have to come up with about 10 wins to make us a winning team, 20 to put us in playoff contention. I'll look at pitching later.
So what can change for the offense? Well, for Hanley, Uggla, Cody, Cantu, and Baker we more or less know what we're getting. So that leaves the last 3 spots. Signing Delgado is about a +1 win advantage. Or, real optimistic, if Coghlan, Maybin, and Logan/Gaby can all managa to be mid-800 bats instead, we're now talking about 50 more runs scored. Like wise though, they could all tank, leaving us faltering.
Our depth is actually pretty decent though. Should Maybin or Coghlan falter, there's Carroll, Logan, Petersen, and Cousins, and one of those should be adequate enough. Like wise with 1B, we have depth there, thanks in part to being able to shift Cantu over.
Injury wise, the only place we would really be FUBAR'd is if Hanley is injured. Again there's the OF and 1B/3B depth, and Coghlan can shift to the IF if something were to happen to Uggla. And if Baker should go down, Paulino should be able to hold the fort down. In fact one could make the arguement that, because of defense, Paulino should be our starting Cather, but keep in mind his offensive numbers are jaded from facing almost exclusively LHP.
So more or less our offense all comes down to Hanley being Hanley, what else is knew.
Also, assume Bonifacio improves his SB rates to what they should be, and improves his offense to a more adequate mid-600 OPS range, there really wouldn't be much of a difference between him and Gaby starting. If we assume those two things happen, it's only about a win difference:
Of coarse, those two things would also have to happen.
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