Confidence Poll: 7/27/2009

[Beef]

Couldn't ones confidence be based entirely on the prior week? Would that make ones vote 'wrong'?

It's such a vague question that if someone jumps 5 points each week, I don't think you can question it.

Well, it is incredibly vague and I have questioned in the past what exactly the confidence relates to.

I think I can absolutely question it. One's confidence can absolutely be based entirely on the prior week, but that is what I'm getting at and asking in my previous post.

It isn't necessarily wrong, but it seems weird to me so I'm made curious by it. It is only 6 or 7 games and even if things go really well or really poorly, the team's same strengths and weaknesses pretty much remain the same and such is the case for most every other team around us as well. I would think confidence would be more likely to make a large jump or fall following a week that includes the trade deadline because then some major things may change like our team's deficiencies or those of the teams we are attempting to catch or remain ahead of.

So, I'm curious why the big change that some people had in their confidence this past week. And yep, it all depends on what you are confident in.

[nny]

Or is there an idea that if we vote 10 the Fish will appreciate it and play extra well for us?

I'm either 100% confident or 0% confident

I don't see the purpose in middle ground

[Beef]

I mean, I guess in a way I can see that. The reality is, if this is confidence in making the playoffs, in the end, when the playoffs arrive, there was either a 100% chance that the Marlins made the playoffs or a 0% chance. They either make it or they don't. But, for me, when it comes to confidence in this future event, I can think this team has a shot to make the playoffs but it will be tough and they may need to make some changes and have other teams falter in order to reach the playoffs. For a future event, in most every case, having all or no confidence seems strange to me. As far as human emotion, like I said, you can be relatively confident but see deficiencies in the team and thus feel that the playoffs are a certainty but still a possibility.

[Bobbob1313]

Well, we went from being 5 games back to like 3.5. So you could be more confident.

Also, the forthcoming week could affect it, no? This is hypothetical, but if in week A we go 3-3 against the phillies and mets (better team than us and worse team) I vote 4, And in week B 5-1 against the pads and dodgers (really good team and really bad team), could I vote 8 if we have series against the Nats and pads at home in the following week?

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

I've been at 7 and 8 the last few polls so my jumping to a 10 by taking 2 of 3 from the team with the best record in the NL is not that much of a stretch. I like how the bats started coming to life and the pitching is keeping us in games.

[Beef]

Well, we went from being 5 games back to like 3.5. So you could be more confident.

Also, the forthcoming week could affect it, no? This is hypothetical, but if in week A we go 3-3 against the phillies and mets (better team than us and worse team) I vote 4, And in week B 5-1 against the pads and dodgers (really good team and really bad team), could I vote 8 if we have series against the Nats and pads at home in the following week?

You can do whatever you want, Chris, but for as clever as you were trying to be, that seems pretty short sighted. If we are talking about confidence about something at the end of the year such as making the playoffs, focusing only on 6 games, all else remaining the same, ignores quite a few things affect a baseball team. And yes, if you are defining confidence as likelihood to win a bunch of game in the coming week, then it does make sense to register a much higher number on the confidence scale if they play two bad teams in the coming week. But if you think the team has problems one week and those problems aren't being fixed by anything in particular, then once they finish playing the Padres and Nats, are you confident they will keep winning, or after the following week will you vote a much lower number? I think if that were what the confidence poll was concerned with, it would be pretty silly and we wouldn't need a vote. Why not just make a graph each week and place the line at the percentage of games won in the previous week and maybe even factor in the likelihood of beating teams with a very low winning percentage of their own in the following 6 or 7 games?

I have no problem with the way anybody votes, but I was looking for people's reasoning, which seems it would be the norm on a site in which we try to get good Marlins discussion unless this thread is just meant for blind homerism. It might get boring there though because we can just plug in the responses completely based on the previous 6 games and perhaps even the teams we face the following week. But why not then also look at the teams we play beyond the coming week? If it is because you view the poll as confidence that we win more games the coming week than we win in an average week during the season, it makes complete sense to me.

[Namaste]

I'm still at 8 after the walk off

[Beef]

I'm 10