2010 Bench: Needs More Amezaga

[Bobbob1313]

But can we realistically say that there's any chance Boner gets sent down if we keep Amezaga? Shouldn't we be realistic? He's going to be on the team no matter what next season.

I don't see how it's insulting, to be honest. Were you thinking of a different word?

I said that if it's Amezaga with the ML team and Boner in New Orleans, then you think about paying Amezaga. But that's probably not going to happen. Because, as I said, we are stubborn and dumb.

[Swifty]

No, bob, the word I was thinking of was insulting because what you boiled your "conclusion" down to was creating a bench that you attributed to the Amezaga crowd which no one, and I mean no one, is advocating for, and then said your bench that features one slap hitting switch hitter is preferable to a bench that features two, despite the fact that no one here wanted both of them on the team at the same time. Forcing a "conclusion" to be correct despite the fact that it's your conclusion against fictitious situation B doesn't make it right, it's just insulting to everyone involved.

I think there's an above average chance Bonifacio starts next season in AAA next year if Amezaga is back in the fold. Our demotions of the entire rotation save JJ and Anibal has shown to me that loyalty is out the door and, quite honestly, the Fredi nearly getting fired thing is great for this since more than one paper has come out and said Bonifacio was forced on Fredi. Turning Fredi into a sympathetic figure and allowing Bonficacio to embody the FO/Fredi split really could gain traction in the coming months, especially if and when we (and the media) get pissed at the 10 cents on the dollar we get for Uggla and adopt the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" mindset and the whole "Fredi deserves better" and "he was forced to play a player who isn't good" stories inevitably rehash themselves.

[Bobbob1313]

I was drawing reasonable conclusions based on what the bench would look like, not based on what people would necessarily want. I really don't see how we don't have Boner with the team next year.

Yes, working under the assumption that Boner is in AAA, then the bench looks something like this:

Amezaga
Brett Carroll
Ronny Paulino
Wes Helms
(million dollars or so cheaper) Ross Gload type 1B/LF LHB

I still say the no Amezaga bench is preferable to the alternatives.

[SFiercex4]

Fine, so let's for example take away the idea that Bonifacio would be on the team regardless of Amezaga's signing, since that seems to be a point of contention for everyone. Let's insert some hypothetical numbers.

Who is valuable to the team? Amezaga at $1.4M (I believe that was Lou's estimate) or Bonifacio at $0.4M. The difference here is $1M. The market has that worth 0.2 wins (2 runs). We know the Marlins won't even consider paying market rate for any player. I have the Marlins paying $2M per marginal win, meaning that $1M is worth 0.5 wins (5 runs).

Is Amezaga that much better given the same playing time? Let's find out.

1) Assume their bats are even (probably right, neither of them are very good, though I suspect Boner is better and certainly has a better chance to improve).

2) How much better is Amezaga defensively? Let's give an estimate. Let's assume the majority of these innings are going to come in center field. Let's say the Marlins substitute every game and leave the substituted player for two innings. I took Grady Sizemore's CF play for the last five years from FanGraphs and saw that a CF gets approx. 2.5 expected outs per game. Let's guess that that's out of 4 balls hit in their zone (just a guess).

That's four opportunities in nine innings, which means for those 2 innings we're looking at something like one opportunity every day out there.

Now, how much does each guy produce? Amezaga has clocked 1700 innings in center, about 1 1/4 seasons. He's +19.5 per 150 games, let's make it +20 runs/150. Let's assume Bonifacio is even (+0), though he could easily be better than that, I don't really know. If every 9 innings (one game) is made up of four opportunities, than Amezaga is 0.033 runs better per opportunity than Bonifacio. If they both played the same amount of time as mentioned above, Amezaga would come out 5.4 runs better than Bonifacio in the same playing time.

Lots of assumptions, lots of guesses, and I didn't regress anyone's data. But I suspect that, for any given organization, it would be surprisingly close, but for the Marlins, they should probably pass on Amezaga and just keep Bonifacio. My guess.

[Omar]

The problems with your post, just on first read:

- Where does the "Marlins pay $2M per marginal win" come from?
- You assume the majority of Amezaga's innings will come in CF which is an impossible assumption until we know the makeup of our starting position players
- You take one CF's experience and apply it to the entire league, leaving open 29 other fields, which doesn't account for the style of team Sizemore predominantly sees in his division, what his pitchers are like, etc. regardless of the large time frame
- You assume Bonifacio is +/- 0 at CF, when he could be better or worse

[Beef]

Yeah, that was poor statistical analysis in all sorts of ways.

[SFiercex4]

The problems with your post, just on first read:

- Where does the "Marlins pay $2M per marginal win" come from?
- You assume the majority of Amezaga's innings will come in CF which is an impossible assumption until we know the makeup of our starting position players
- You take one CF's experience and apply it to the entire league, leaving open 29 other fields, which doesn't account for the style of team Sizemore predominantly sees in his division, what his pitchers are like, etc. regardless of the large time frame
- You assume Bonifacio is +/- 0 at CF, when he could be better or worse

Quick answers:

- I did some research, ran projections on each player the Marlins have acquired via free agency over the last three years. Yes, the market rate has jumped in one of those offseasons, but I suspect the Marlins rate remains mostly static. This is free agent market rates, mind you. If you don't like it, use the $4.5M / WAR rate that's usually quoted.

- Valid point. Amezaga seems to be worse everywhere else, but he's probably a good deal better than Bonifacio on the infield. I did list it as an assumption however, and that is where most of his innings go.

- I used the defensive games listed on FanGraphs and the expected outs. Those are based on a league average. I don't actually have a guess, but again, tried to put some numbers into the conversation.

- Our best case is assumption given what we know is 0, unless you have something better. You yourself said he could be better or worse. Again, it's an estimate.

[Omar]

The fact that all those points are estimates and guesses, though, basically means that we can't draw any sort of conclusion from your post in regards to solving the dilemma of Amezaga/Bonifacio that wasn't already available earlier.

[Party]

Quick answers:

- I did some research, ran projections on each player the Marlins have acquired via free agency over the last three years. Yes, the market rate has jumped in one of those offseasons, but I suspect the Marlins rate remains mostly static. This is free agent market rates, mind you. If you don't like it, use the $4.5M / WAR rate that's usually quoted.

- Valid point. Amezaga seems to be worse everywhere else, but he's probably a good deal better than Bonifacio on the infield. I did list it as an assumption however, and that is where most of his innings go.

- I used the defensive games listed on FanGraphs and the expected outs. Those are based on a league average. I don't actually have a guess, but again, tried to put some numbers into the conversation.

- Our best case is assumption given what we know is 0, unless you have something better. You yourself said he could be better or worse. Again, it's an estimate.

This part of your post is vague. Are you saying Amezaga is worse than Boner in the outfield?

If you are that is highly debatable.

[Metes]

I think he was saying Amezaga is worse at other positions that he is at CF, thereby asserting that centerfield is his best position.

[Bobbob1313]

This part of your post is vague. Are you saying Amezaga is worse than Boner in the outfield?

If you are that is highly debatable.

He said Amezaga is +20 per 150 innings and was projecting Boner to be even.

[Party]

Damn you bob you always post after I have moved posts.

[Bobbob1313]

I think the overall point of SFX's post is what I'd agree with. He's definitely worth more, and he might be worth the extra money, but if you're the Marlins, that's probably not a risk you can take.

[Omar]

I don't even agree with the assertion that Amezaga's best position is CF. He just played that all the time because we had a hole in CF in 2008.

[Bobbob1313]

His best position is probably SS.

God help us if he's playing any sort of significant innings at his best position.