2010 Bench: Needs More Amezaga

[Fish and Chips]

personally i think the bench needs more cowbell, not amezaga

[SFiercex4]

The fact that all those points are estimates and guesses, though, basically means that we can't draw any sort of conclusion from your post in regards to solving the dilemma of Amezaga/Bonifacio that wasn't already available earlier.

I believe it does give you more information, because it gives you a ballpark of how much more valuable Amezaga is playing in CF than Bonifacio. If you don't want a ballpark estimate using numbers, the argument is mostly subjective.

That being said, I can do it based on innings if you'd like.

Amezaga: +20 / 150 games or 1350 innings. Which means the estimate is 0.015 runs better than average per inning. Two innings a game was my estimate. That comes out to be 4.8, or about 5 runs better than average. I would've said 5 runs with either number. That's if the team gives either of them that kind of playing time.

As far as the Boner projection goes, he's played 59 major league innings in center field. Just from the numbers perspective, the best projection would have him at around 0, there's not enough data to say anything else. I don't think the scouting reports on his defense are all that great either, at least from the people who voted at the Fans Scouting Report.

That being said, if anyone wants to hazard a guess at a number, I can run the numbers from there.

The other point regarding the positions the two would play is valid. If we slot him for the bench though, what other positions would Amezaga/Bonifacio likely play as late inning defensive replacements? Helms mans third base late. Uggla never came out for defense late before. Of course, the replacement for Uggla could be late-innings replaced, but if the fans get what they want and Coghlan is put at second, I doubt he'd be pulled. Center's the most likely option to me.

Also, yes, I meant that Amezaga seems to be a worse SS than he is a CF. In general, most SS are better in the outfield, SS is harder to play. The numbers also support that, though Amezaga hasn't played nearly as much SS as he has CF in his career, so the sample there is smaller.
--------------------

I think the overall point of SFX's post is what I'd agree with. He's definitely worth more, and he might be worth the extra money, but if you're the Marlins, that's probably not a risk you can take.

More or less. We know he's better, but on the Marlins' budget, it's very very close.

[CrimsonCane]

Like I've mentioned before, this type of aggregated statistical analysis misses some needed context. Runs saved by defense in close, late inning situations ought to be valued higher than normal defensive plays and Amezaga provides GG or near GG defense at numerous premium defensive positions. You can't do the normal 10 runs = 1 win translation.

That said, I have to give credit to SFirerceX for throwing out an argument that brought substance and new points to the debate. Good stuff.

[SFiercex4]

Like I've mentioned before, this type of aggregated statistical analysis misses some needed context. Runs saved by defense in close, late inning situations ought to be valued higher than normal defensive plays and Amezaga provides GG or near GG defense at numerous premium defensive positions. You can't do the normal 10 runs = 1 win translation.

That said, I have to give credit to SFirerceX for throwing out an argument that brought substance and new points to the debate. Good stuff.

Thank you kindly, good sir.

There is some leverage difference involved, and that's why I tried to do an estimate of opportunities, to point out that even if the run amount was inflated, the average opportunities were still very low. Still, that opportunities thing was guesswork, though the results sounded reasonable.