2010 Bench: Needs More Amezaga

[Metes]

It isn't pointless to feel more confident in a utility player that will see a decent amount of time on the field. Not a starting role, but a somewhat significant one. This role we're talking about will be subbed in to play defense at least 100 games a year, and will likely get 20-30 starts a year as guys get banged up. I'd at least like to know that player will be solid anywhere you put them. Offensively, yeah, they're both a wash and would be equally bad as a starter. But that's really not what we're leaning on them for.

[Bobbob1313]

So how much is the knowledge that you have a superior defensive player for 600 innings worth?

Of course, all of this is assuming that Amezaga being super sub again means Boner is in the minors. What it probably means is Boner is still with the team in some capacity, so it's using two roster spots and 1.4-1.7 mil on two very similar players.

I just don't see how resigning Amezaga is in the best interests of the team. Guess I'm in the minority here.

[Metes]

Also, regarding whether or not Fredo is worth the extra money, FanGraphs has a nice little calculation of value based on wins above replacement. I don't know enough about the advanced stats to get it entirely, but it assigns a dollar value to those wins, or something of that nature. In 2008, Alfredo was $6.6m, the majority of which was supplied by his glove.

Also, I'd like to add that franchises that make you argue whether it's worth paying an extra $600k for a unequivocal fan favorite that will make under $2m are just awesome.

[Bobbob1313]

I would say that number is not accurate for a team with a $45 million dollar payroll.

Also, maybe it's just me, but I don't think being a fan favorite is a big reason to resign someone. That's how teams get hurt.

[Metes]

Correct, you send the right message to the fans when you cut a guy they love over half of Wes Helms' salary.

[Bobbob1313]

Correct, you send the right message to the fans when you cut a guy they love over half of Wes Helms' salary.

I hardly think the loss of Alfredo Amezaga, who didn't even play last season, is going to be what kills this fan base.

You hold onto a fan favorite like Cody because he's a valuable player who will really significantly hurt your team if you lose him. You don't hold onto a super sub just because fans like him.

[Metes]

I hardly think the loss of Alfredo Amezaga, who didn't even play last season, is going to be what kills this fan base.

In a vacuum, no, but when it is an ongoing pattern of behavior, yes.

You hold onto a fan favorite like Cody because he's a valuable player who will really significantly hurt your team if you lose him. You don't hold onto a super sub just because fans like him.

He shouldn't be kept because for the reason that fans like him, but because I think his versatility is worth more than Wes Helms' salary. The fan favorite issue is ancillary, only to show the Mickey Mouseness of the franchise living on the margins.

[emkayseven]

i think the word is Mickey Mousity

[Beef]

It isn't

[CrimsonCane]

Bobbob, you mention a lot that Amezaga or Bonifacio are not going to see much playing time as it is and therefore, the extra $600K just isn't really valuable. While they may seem like limited innings in the aggregate, we also have to consider the context of those innings they'll likely be playing in. Their predominant role will be as a late inning substitution, more than likely in a close game or where we're trying to preserve a lead. Here, an error or mistake can prove more costly than one earlier in the game (because we have fewer opportunities to make up for it).

In those situations, a proven defensive commodity like Amezaga is significantly more valuable than someone whose defensive versatility is merely alleged. That's why it's not really informative to look at WARP or something to compare these guys. If Bonifacio is even something like 5-7 runs worse than Amezaga in the field. 5-7 runs in a late inning context can cost us something like 3-4 wins. For a team operating at the margins, I think it's perfectly acceptable to say the $600K is a worthy enough investment to potentially avoid 3-4 additional losses.

[lou]

It's also NOT $600k. Amezaga will easily make $1.4 in arbitration. Although, I suppose the Marlins could always cut him and then resign him. But then that gives another franchise a chance to snap him up making assuming he's only $600k more problematic. Bonifacio is going to make the minimum, which is around $405-410,000 depending on inflation adjustments. Amezaga will make $1.4 million.

But I mean, I don't know if this really changes the bottom line to any of your arguments as an extra $400k is nothing in baseball salary terms. That's the difference between Reynel Pinto and a club controlled lefty for 2010.

All I know is, I'm not wasting 2 roster spots on Amezaga/Bonifacio for $1.8 million. I'm cool if they want to keep AA (and he proves he is healthy and ready to go) and stash EB in AAA for a year, but I don't want to sacrifice say, getting Mark Kotsay for the bench and instead having to use Jai Miller and Raynor because "that" money is going to Amezaga.

[Omar]

I disagree with your value point, and I would argue Fredo's positional versatility makes him exactly the kind of player a team with limited resources needs to keep around.

I think this (and CC, of course) is the best short way of summing it up.

I agree that Amezaga is better. Is he 600 k-1 mil better? I don't see any way he can be considered that, given that the role they play is (hopefully) minor. We're not going to make the playoffs with either playing every day, so saying that you feel more confident in Amezaga having to fill in every day is kind of pointless. They are both essentially worthless as everyday players.

Also, is there no chance that Boner outperforms Amezaga? I'd say it's at least even odds.

First, I think the numbers that MW and nny have provided do a good job of letting us catch a glimpse of the fact that Amezaga IS significantly better than Bonifacio. The fact that the numbers for Bonifacio on defense in the minors aren't super strong are a sign of concern. Also, this is exactly the role that an NL team (especially one on a budget) NEEDS to have a high class player. I don't think it would be exaggeration to call Amezaga one of the best super subs in baseball. Is Bonifacio at that point? Does he even project to be there?

For the record, I'm not on the Bonifacio hate wagon. I think he has a chance to be a pretty good 2B if his defense is as advertised and he can learn some patience at the plate. But right now, there's no question that Amezaga is superior. I don't even see them as similar players other than maybe physically.

[Ramp]

I know everyone loves Amezaga because we got him for free and he's "amazin" and we hate Boner because we gave up Willingham for him and perception is a bitch

Just wanted to say... this is a slap in the face to nearly everyone on this board.

[Bobbob1313]

I'm not really sure there's much else for me to say that I haven't said already. I suppose I just disagree on the relative value of a late inning defensive replacement. Guess I'll just reiterate my main points.

I'm just not convinced 32 year old Alfredo Amezaga, coming off microfracture knee surgery is worth an extra 600k-1 mil. I've never doubted that he is a more valuable player than Boner, but if you are the Marlins, you have to be 100% certain that value is worth the $1 mil investment, because you can't afford to waste the money.

What if Amezaga can't come back and be even the player he was before the injury? I'm not sure that's the kind of risk the Marlins can afford to take when they do have a guy who projects to do a reasonable imitation of Amezaga. Amezaga's offensive skills had been in decline from 2006-2008 (walk rates down, k rates up, average down, baserunning got worse) so that it's reasonable to assume they won't be that far apart offensively, and if his defense is affected by the injury at all, he loses whatever added value he has.

If it's just Amezaga, and Boner goes to AAA, then it's a little better. But if Boner is going to be with the team no matter what (and it seems extremely likely that will be the case no matter what), then there's no reason to keep Amezaga. You are paying 1.8 million or so for two players who project to do similar things. Whatever defensive gains he has on Boner in the outfield are negated because we have Carroll to be a late inning outfield replacement who is better than Amezaga anyways. So that position versatility becomes a little less important anyways.

I like a bench of:
Emilio Bonifacio
Brett Carroll
Ronny Paulino
Wes Helms
Ross Gload type of 1B/LF guy

more than:
Alfredo Amezaga
Emilio Bonifacio
Brett Carroll
Wes Helms
Ronny Paulino

I don't see how we send Boner down with infatuation we seem to have with him. Keeping Amezaga limits us because we are stubborn and dumb (and this relates to the inevitable "lol we shouldn't have signed Wes Helms" comments. We already signed him, he's gonna be on the bench. Sorry.)

[Swifty]

Again, I think you're insulting everyone by doing the "bench" thing. No one wants Bonifacio and Amezaga on the team at the same time.