2020 Draft

[tjfla]

Like keep mentioning most talk for us looks like this and has for past few days

1-Asa Lacy
2-1st Rd College Bat who falls(Casey Martin/Aaron Sabato/Wells/Zamora/Daniel Cabrera)
2S-HS Player(Victor Mederos/Alejandro Rosario/Yohandy Morales/Enrique Bradfield)

Depending on what we do with first 3 picks this could change

Rd 3-5 College Arms and College C
(Arms-Hugh Fisher/Mike Kirian/Nick Frasso/Gavin Williams/Joe Boyle)

Who depends on if they need $ for earlier guys or what. They expect to go 5% OVER to sign guys

[Lee Stone]

Comps for prospects are fun, and here are a few from ESPN: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...raft-prospects

I'm seeing lots of Cody Ross in Peyton Burdick, Jeremy Hermida in JJ Bleday, Juan Encarnacion in Jerar, Preston Wilson in Monte Harrison and Francisco Lindor in Jazz.

[fish16]

Comps for prospects are fun, and here are a few from ESPN: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...raft-prospects

I'm seeing lots of Cody Ross in Peyton Burdick, Jeremy Hermida in JJ Bleday, Juan Encarnacion in Jerar, Preston Wilson in Monte Harrison and Francisco Lindor in Jazz.

i almost always dislike your prospect evaluations but a lot of those actually seem pretty spot on other than your hate for bleday based on a limited sample size where he was pushed to play at a higher level than most first rounders would be pushed. Jazz seems like potentially one of the better buy low guys that we have gotten in our franchise's history, although obviously it's super early on that front. Gallen looks like a solid mid-rotation guy but personally i don't see top of the rotation potential and jazz went from a Lindor level comp to underrated after a few months in 2019 and the potential upside in him for a lower upside, higher ceiling guy in Gallen was 100% worth it even if it ends up not working out for us. those are the types of semi-gambles that i love as a rebuilding team, especially one with SP depth.

Burdick has a big variance in terms of his potential but i like a cody ross comp as his middle ground. If he hits he will be a better, legit mid .800 ops guy but obviously we need a bigger sample size until we can see if his draft year stats were for real.

Jerar i dont think will pan out personally but i like the Juan encarnacion comp. Preston wilson is a really good comp for monte as well but monte is a better baserunner/athlete and defender. offensively though thats a really good comp, and monte is another guy who im so interested to see what his career looks like.

On a side note, juan encarnacion from every source ive read/heard has completely disappeared after hurting his eye, which really sucks. i also dont get why there is not some sort of on deck guy protection cause it seems really damn stupid to have a guy unprotected where the on deck circle is located. Juan seemed like a good guy but i was listening to a JP interview on lebatards local hour last week and JP said that everyone has lost contact with 5-4-3-2-juan and that he is somewhere in the dominican but doesnt really do much publicly after the eye injury.

[Nick]

I don't know about the Encarnacions comps. I think of Juan as an excellent OF, but inconsistent with the bat at best. While Jerar, most reports have him as a below average defender, but as we saw in ST, some serious power potential in his bat.

[Lee Stone]

As you will note, I was trying to use former Marlins as comps for some of our current prospects. The Encarnacions were a stretch - more having fun with the names. Jerar Encarnacion may have a little Ozuna in him, if we are lucky.

Bleday and Hermida comp was actually very generous to JJ at the same age. Hermida was the #18 prospect in baseball at Bleday's age and actually reached #4 the following year. Their skill sets were very similar, although Hermida was more a base-stealing threat.

[tjfla]

Baltimore AND Miami have talked to Gonzales about underslot deal

Still looks like its Asa Lacy/Austin Martin/Gonzales but both teams are talking thinking about saving 3 millon to use later in the draft. Something to watch is HS are falling fast!!! Crow-Armstrong,Ed Howard,Carson Montgomery.Teams are starting to get scared off by these guys because of #1 Signing and #2 Most havent been seen since August. Remember u get pick next year IF u dont sign guys take in Rd 3 or before! If they did this they could take risks in Rd 2S and 3 but still have cash to sign others if they cant


Ill say Miami still goes

Lacy
College Bat(Sabato/Wells) or Arm that falls(McMahon/Van Eyk/Ginn)
Victor Mederos
College Arm(Fisher/Logan Allen) or Bat(Gage Workman/Keenan) depending on what they do in Rd 2
College Arm(Frasso/Kirian/Ryan Webb/Luke Little) We are looking at JC guys and SP/RP types
College C(Mike Rothenberg/Opitz/Adam Kerner)

But could see crazy
Gonzales
HS guy
Drew Romo(Hard Sign HS C)
Another Hard Sign HS
College Arm
College C

If they dont sign the 2 guys they get 2 more picks in 2021. Baltimore is still the team that likely does this and not US!!!

In other draft news the "Punt" teams are talking about a new strategy. Take a hard to sign player(Bitsko/Jordan Walker/whoever) in Rd 1 and then a bunch of easy signing the rest of the draft. Example is Washington has like 6.5 million to spend in draft-they would take guys in Rd 2-5 for like 1.5 million total then have 4-5 million to spend on a Bitsko or someone. Could drop some more talent down

Day 2 is gonna be fun!!! Only a few names on radar have popped up unlike years past(Aaron Sabato/Mederos/Hugh Fisher/Rothenberg and most the South Florida guys have been connected with us) and HS guys are dropping like stones. Could have 1st Rd talent in most years sitting there in Rd 2/2S-I think Baltimore would take a guy like that since they have 2 picks before us in Rd 2 but damn if PCA,Ed Howard or Montgomery are sitting there at #40

[fauowls44]

New Fangraphs mock this morning. Interesting that they think Lacy is the guy even if Martin is available.

3. Miami Marlins- Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
If Martin doesn’t go at two, I still think Lacy is the guy here. Teams selecting in the next couple of picks have been doing work on Lacy’s medical, which is either a symptom of the possibility that Baltimore cuts a deal at two and Martin goes to Miami (which, again, I don’t think is true), or them thinking he might fall due to something related to the medical. Team sources told me Lacy was the lone prospect of the top few pitchers who submitted to MLB’s MRI submission program. Team reviews of the medicals I’m aware of have ranged from “unconcerned, very typical” to “slightly above-average concern.”

[tjfla]

New Fangraphs mock this morning. Interesting that they think Lacy is the guy even if Martin is available.

3. Miami Marlins- Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
If Martin doesn’t go at two, I still think Lacy is the guy here. Teams selecting in the next couple of picks have been doing work on Lacy’s medical, which is either a symptom of the possibility that Baltimore cuts a deal at two and Martin goes to Miami (which, again, I don’t think is true), or them thinking he might fall due to something related to the medical. Team sources told me Lacy was the lone prospect of the top few pitchers who submitted to MLB’s MRI submission program. Team reviews of the medicals I’m aware of have ranged from “unconcerned, very typical” to “slightly above-average concern.”

Ya Miami is on the 1st Rd P and 2nd Rd Bat idea. They like 1B/DHAaron Sabato and Wells but also looking at SS types like Casey Martin/Freddy Zamora. They think better value in a Lacy/Sabato or Casey Martin then Austin Martin/McMahon or Tommy Mace and they are right!! Take Lacy and move on

Plus how good would a future rotation like this look

Asa Lacy(21)
Sixto(22)
Cabrera(22)
Sandy(24)
Garrett(22)
Rogers(22)
Neidert(23)
Pablo(24)

Pen
Yamamoto(24)
Guzman(24)
Holloway(24)

If they suck again this year cause of the schedule u could add Jack Leiter or Rocker to that

[sports24/7]

My best case scenario would be Lacy or Martin at 3, and Casey Martin in the 2nd. Elite bat or pitching prospect, and big time upside MIF prospect. I'd also be good with Sabato or Wells.

[Lee Stone]

Ya Miami is on the 1st Rd P and 2nd Rd Bat idea. They like 1B/DHAaron Sabato and Wells but also looking at SS types like Casey Martin/Freddy Zamora. They think better value in a Lacy/Sabato or Casey Martin then Austin Martin/McMahon or Tommy Mace and they are right!! Take Lacy and move on

Plus how good would a future rotation like this look

Asa Lacy(21)
Sixto(22)
Cabrera(22)
Sandy(24)
Garrett(22)
Rogers(22)
Neidert(23)
Pablo(24)

Pen
Yamamoto(24)
Guzman(24)
Holloway(24)

If they suck again this year cause of the schedule u could add Jack Leiter or Rocker to that

Plug Humberto Mejia into the top four of that pitcher list.

I'm as excited about getting Lacy this year as I was about getting CJ Abrams last year. That's why I'll be concerned until I actually hear Lacy's name called out by the Marlins on Wednesday night.

[fauowls44]

Baseball America has a new mock today. Can someone post the Marlins pick?

[sports24/7]

Baseball America has a new mock today. Can someone post the Marlins pick?

They have the 1-3 going chalk. They mention the option of Baltimore going under slot, but say if it's not Martin they don't think it will be Lacy. They had this to say about the Lacy pick:

Asa Lacy
Texas A&MLHP
Notes:
This 1-2-3 has been discussed with as much certainty as any trio of players in this class. It sounds like the Marlins really want an arm at this spot, and in this scenario they get the best all-around pitcher in the class.

I hope that doesn't mean in Lacy is gone that they'd still go SP.

[fauowls44]

They have the 1-3 going chalk. They mention the option of Baltimore going under slot, but say if it's not Martin they don't think it will be Lacy. They had this to say about the Lacy pick:



I hope that doesn't mean in Lacy is gone that they'd still go SP.

Thanks for posting. That is pretty much the same thing Fangraphs said today. It'll be interesting if both Lacy and Martin are there at 3. It's still hard for me to imagine they don't take Martin if he is there, but I don't think you can go wrong either way.

[tjfla]

No real change today but something to watch with us is this

IF a Carson Montgomery,Justin Lange,Jared Kelley,Ed Howard(others too) are there at #40 we could take 1 of them. Miami has been calling HS guys asking about price-they still would love Sabato/Wells/Casey Martin(College Bat) but would pass if 1 of those guys they like are there and signable. If we go HS player at #40 they would then go with a college bat in 2S who fell like Hudson Haskin,Gage Workman,Tyler Keenan,Servideo

Miami is also very interested in RP who could be SP and JC arms

Asa Lacy is still #1 on our board

Looking like we want 1 College Bat/1 HS Arm/1 College C/1 or 2 College Arms on Day 2 in some order but should be very active in UDFA with guys who either are in HS/JC/College in Florida and guys who grew up down here.

Sounds like Thursday/Day 2 might be 100x more fun then 1st Rd because of $ pool,ability to get picks next year if don't sign guys and UDFA no one knows what the hell is gonna happen

[tjfla]

Prospects 365
Baseball
@Prospects365
The Angels will be on the clock tomorrow night with Mick Abel, Cade Cavalli, Tyler Soderstrom, Garrett Crochet, Nick Bitsko, Garrett Mitchell Pete Crow-Armstrong and many others remaining on the board.

Instead, they are currently contemplating punting the pick to save $100,000.

Angels 1 of 4 teams thinking about doing this. Taking HS or college guys who will NOT sign,get the picks for next year and just regrouping in 2021.