2020 Draft

[tjfla]

who is a good comp for asa lacy?

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and how long is it until he is supposed to be big league ready?

Like Lee said Blake Snell is comp but floor is likely a Mike Minor

Hancock is probably more ML ready as Lacy needs to clean up his delivery and develop some secondary pitches. Big difference is Lacy is that 6'5 220lbs LHP that hits 96/97 while Hancock is more of a pitcher

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2023 Rotation(IF it goes to plan)

Sixto
Cabrera
Sandy
Garrett
Neidert/Pablo/Rogers/Yamamoto/Guzman

Gonna be interesting to see how the minor leagues shake out after the draft/next ST as we will have alot of decisions to make but have depth from top to bottom(Pretty much everything but C and 3B are backlogged)

[Nick]

Hancock is probably more ML ready as Lacy needs to clean up his delivery and develop some secondary pitches. Big difference is Lacy is that 6'5 220lbs LHP that hits 96/97 while Hancock is more of a pitcher

I disagree with this assessment, I mean Hancock was clearly the top pitching prospect coming into the extremely shortened 2020 college season, but Lacy passed him and it was 100% due to performance. Lacy was basically untouchable in February and early March, and if you look at their overall college careers, both pitching against great competition in the SEC, Lacy was the much more consistent performer. Average velocity would probably go to Hancock, but not by a ton, but to me overall I just saw much more nasty unhittable stuff from Lacy. The one area I would say Hancock has an advantage is control 52 BBs in 192 IP in college, Lacy 68 BBs in 152 IP in college. His control was a little better in the shortened 2020 8 BBs in 24 IP. To me every other category goes to Lacy though, much lower BAA for Lacy, much fewer HRs, and many more strike outs. 2019 was the year that cemented Hancock as the top pitching prospect in college going into 2020, Hancock had a dominant 1.99 ERA with 97 Ks in 90.1 Innings. Lacy pitched 88.2 innings in 2019 with a 2.13 ERA, and 130 Ks.

I just think if Lacy's control continues to improve, we're talking about a potential #1 here, I just don't see any situation where Hancock is ever a #1. And it helps that he's left-handed. Fit him in-between Sixto, Cabrera and Sandy in a rotation, hopefully one of Garrett or Rogers turns into a very strong #5, and man you're ready to rock.

[tjfla]

I disagree with this assessment, I mean Hancock was clearly the top pitching prospect coming into the extremely shortened 2020 college season, but Lacy passed him and it was 100% due to performance. Lacy was basically untouchable in February and early March, and if you look at their overall college careers, both pitching against great competition in the SEC, Lacy was the much more consistent performer. Average velocity would probably go to Hancock, but not by a ton, but to me overall I just saw much more nasty unhittable stuff from Lacy. The one area I would say Hancock has an advantage is control 52 BBs in 192 IP in college, Lacy 68 BBs in 152 IP in college. His control was a little better in the shortened 2020 8 BBs in 24 IP. To me every other category goes to Lacy though, much lower BAA for Lacy, much fewer HRs, and many more strike outs. 2019 was the year that cemented Hancock as the top pitching prospect in college going into 2020, Hancock had a dominant 1.99 ERA with 97 Ks in 90.1 Innings. Lacy pitched 88.2 innings in 2019 with a 2.13 ERA, and 130 Ks.

I just think if Lacy's control continues to improve, we're talking about a potential #1 here, I just don't see any situation where Hancock is ever a #1. And it helps that he's left-handed. Fit him in-between Sixto, Cabrera and Sandy in a rotation, hopefully one of Garrett or Rogers turns into a very strong #5, and man you're ready to rock.

Totally agree and so do the Marlins which is why they want him instead of Hancock. I am just saying right now Hancock is more ML ready but Lacy has the bigger upside

Lacy needs to clean up some stuff(delivery is his big issue and work on secondary pitches) and might take little longer to get to majors but he is a #1/2 while Hancock is a #2

Its like this. Before the season Cabrera was likely #3 ML ready P in system by next ST I think he is better than Sixto

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#5 SP could be Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker!!

If they dont play Marlins likely would get #3 pick again
If they do play the 82 game season Marlins likely would get a Top 3 pick since every team we play except Baltimore is tough

Baltimore/Detroit/Miami/Pitt are the likely worst teams next year in the 82 game idea. Luke Leto HS SS is from Michigan maybe they take the hometown kid

Only positive about this season for us is we might get the benefits of the best draft ever in 2021. Its gonna be 20 Rounds(we will have 3 of Top 40 picks likely) and could have tons of HS talent from this year

[Lee Stone]

Totally agree and so do the Marlins which is why they want him instead of Hancock. I am just saying right now Hancock is more ML ready but Lacy has the bigger upside

Lacy needs to clean up some stuff(delivery is his big issue and work on secondary pitches) and might take little longer to get to majors but he is a #1/2 while Hancock is a #2

Its like this. Before the season Cabrera was likely #3 ML ready P in system by next ST I think he is better than Sixto

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#5 SP could be Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker!!

If they dont play Marlins likely would get #3 pick again
If they do play the 82 game season Marlins likely would get a Top 3 pick since every team we play except Baltimore is tough

Baltimore/Detroit/Miami/Pitt are the likely worst teams next year in the 82 game idea. Luke Leto HS SS is from Michigan maybe they take the hometown kid

Only positive about this season for us is we might get the benefits of the best draft ever in 2021. Its gonna be 20 Rounds(we will have 3 of Top 40 picks likely) and could have tons of HS talent from this year

I was glancing at 2019 pre-draft discussion on this board and you were all over Abrams, tjfla, so good for you. You pointed out that CJ was the top choice of both Jeter and Denbo, so I'm wondering how the hell they got outvoted!

On Cabrera, I'm pretty confident he's the best pitcher the Marlins have right now ... in the majors or minors. I have a hunch that Humberto Mejia will be joining him in the 2021 Marlin rotation. Mejia is a year older, but lost a full season to injury. Both Cabrera and Mejia have logged about 280 minor league innings at this point, with Mejia enjoying a statistical edge with a .214 BAA and a career WHIP of 1.01. (Note: Sixto Sanchez has pitched 335 innings in his minor league career, and his numbers are similar to Mejia with a .223 BAA and a sterling 1.02 WHIP.

As for Lacy, I believe he'll be added to the 20-man "taxi squad" for the Marlins this season, along with Cabrera, Sixto, Garrett, Rogers, Neidert, Castano, possibly Mejia, and about five relievers. I expect to see multiple trades involving starters from among Urena, Alcantara, Lopez, C Smith and Yamamoto. My favorite trade targets are Daulton Varsho (C/UT), Vidal Brujan (2B) and Bobby Dalbec (3B). All appear to be blocked in their current organizations.

https://www.mlb.com/news/asa-lacy-dr...an-comparisons

[tjfla]

I was glancing at 2019 pre-draft discussion on this board and you were all over Abrams, tjfla, so good for you. You pointed out that CJ was the top choice of both Jeter and Denbo, so I'm wondering how the hell they got outvoted!

On Cabrera, I'm pretty confident he's the best pitcher the Marlins have right now ... in the majors or minors. I have a hunch that Humberto Mejia will be joining him in the 2021 Marlin rotation. Mejia is a year older, but lost a full season to injury. Both Cabrera and Mejia have logged about 280 minor league innings at this point, with Mejia enjoying a statistical edge with a .214 BAA and a career WHIP of 1.01. (Note: Sixto Sanchez has pitched 335 innings in his minor league career, and his numbers are similar to Mejia with a .223 BAA and a sterling 1.02 WHIP.

As for Lacy, I believe he'll be added to the 20-man "taxi squad" for the Marlins this season, along with Cabrera, Sixto, Garrett, Rogers, Neidert, Castano, possibly Mejia, and about five relievers. I expect to see multiple trades involving starters from among Urena, Alcantara, Lopez, C Smith and Yamamoto. My favorite trade targets are Daulton Varsho (C/UT), Vidal Brujan (2B) and Bobby Dalbec (3B). All appear to be blocked in their current organizations.

https://www.mlb.com/news/asa-lacy-dr...an-comparisons

They really didnt get outvoted. DJ and Denbo loved Bleday too and they liked other SS guys especially Nasim Nunez who they got. Jeter really doesnt have much say in minors. He lets Denbo do all of that. Probably change this year when Jeter better be calling these UDFA personally telling them we want them!!!

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No clue who this guy is BUT he mentioned something that was discussed and still is being discussed even tho I do NOT think they will do it. They were talking this since November when they were looking at guys like Cole Wilcox,JT Ginn as underslot guys and then going crazy on talent later in draft since they thought this would be last talent only draft for them in awhiile

There appears to be some legitimate smoke the Marlins are considering Garrett Crochet in an underslot here

FWIW Crochet is pretty much a poor man's Asa Lacy. Same size/LHP/iffy delivery


Marlins are 1 of the teams that have some legit interest in saving some cash in 1st Rd(Crochet would save like 3.5 million or more) and then going OVER slot for all picks. THis would let them pick BPA and not worry about stuff. I do NOT think they will do this but interesting to see people start mentioning it

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Even tho ALOT of smoke seems "plan" is still

3 Lacy
40 College Bat who falls-Casey Martin/Sabato/Dingler/Cabrera
2S-HS Arm
3/4Th-College Arms(RP?) Save some cash to use on Rd 2 and 2S picks
5-C or Toral

Almost 100% we take a College C in Rd 3,4 or 5. They don't wanna miss out on what is a very good C draft plus need them in the system

[fauowls44]

New ESPN mock this morning. They say the #1 pick is down to Lacy and Tork. I doubt Detroit passes on Tork, but it would make things interesting.

3. Miami Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
Lacy: 55%, Martin: 30%

The most likely outcome here is that the top three go in the order I've outlined. The second-most likely outcome is Torkelson-Gonzales-Martin, which has something like a one-in-three chance of happening. The other potential outcomes have likelihoods of less than 10%. The rumor that the Marlins will cut here and take Heston Kjerstad (a ringer for their top pick last year, JJ Bleday) also is unlikely to be true, but it's another intriguing option on the menu. The odds are high that Miami ranks the top three in the order we listed and takes the best one left here.

[Nick]

Detroit's farm system is already so top-heavy at pitcher it's hard to imagine them passing up the bats. Having Lacy fit in between Manning and Mize in a rotation would be scary, but it won't matter if they never score any runs.

[tjfla]

New ESPN mock this morning. They say the #1 pick is down to Lacy and Tork. I doubt Detroit passes on Tork, but it would make things interesting.

3. Miami Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
Lacy: 55%, Martin: 30%

The most likely outcome here is that the top three go in the order I've outlined. The second-most likely outcome is Torkelson-Gonzales-Martin, which has something like a one-in-three chance of happening. The other potential outcomes have likelihoods of less than 10%. The rumor that the Marlins will cut here and take Heston Kjerstad (a ringer for their top pick last year, JJ Bleday) also is unlikely to be true, but it's another intriguing option on the menu. The odds are high that Miami ranks the top three in the order we listed and takes the best one left here.

Ya the underslot rumor for Miami is really starting to get hot. Crochet,Wilcox,Detmers,Patrick Bailey and now Kjerstad all been mentioned. Again the reason seems to be Miami is looking hard at the go crazy method of the draft. If u havent heard of it-its when a team goes underslot in Rd 1 then crazy with rest of the picks!!

Marlins draft pool is $12,617,000 with the 5% overage for 6 players with #3 Pick at $7,221,200.

So if u go under at like $4,617,000(Pick 10 $) u have 8 million to spend on 5 players

I think they go with Asa Lacy or Austin Martin but would be very interesting if we did the go crazy method. Take BPA on board regardless if HS/College. Alot of HS guys sound like they are dropping so u could see a Rd 1 HS talent(Dylan Crews? Jordan Walker?) or a JT Ginn sitting there in Round 5(Slot is $418,000) because of price and offer them 2 million+

Imagine a

Garrett Crochet
Casey Martin
Dax Fulton
Tommy Mace
Mike Rothenberg
Dylan Crews

draft. 6 guys with 4/5 projected that were projected as Top 50 guys in March U give Mace/Rothenberg 1.25 Million and have 6.75 to spend of 3 players still

I prefer a

Asa Lacy
Jordan Westburg/Freddy Zamora/Aaron Sabato(College Bat who falls)
Victor Mederos
Hugh Fisher(TJS in Summer of 2019)
Mike Kirian(RP)
Alex Toral

draft myself. Tons of college guys and Mederos who is a 19 yr old Cuban from Miami
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Detroit's farm system is already so top-heavy at pitcher it's hard to imagine them passing up the bats. Having Lacy fit in between Manning and Mize in a rotation would be scary, but it won't matter if they never score any runs.

Unless Baltimore has a Gonzales/Bitsko type deal worked out I doubt Baltimore would pass on Tork if he was there. Guy was made for a the AL

Baltimore much like Miami/SD is looking at the go crazy method by the way and their GM is from Houston who pretty much invented it

[Nick]

If we had the #4 pick I might be for the saving money method so we can go crazy in later picks, but to me there is a clear top 3 in this draft, our pick needs to be used on Tork/Lacy/Martin.

[Lee Stone]

Big thing with Lacy is that he seems to be improving quickly and scouts agree that his upside is unsurpassed. Over 28 drafts, the Marlins have spent a lot of first round picks on arms and have hit with only a couple. They're due. I wouldn't stop with Lacy either. I'd go all pitching. Pitching is the ticket for acquiring the position players we'll need (if recent history is any indication). Chisholm, L Diaz, J Sanchez were all acquired for pitchers.

[tjfla]

Big thing with Lacy is that he seems to be improving quickly and scouts agree that his upside is unsurpassed. Over 28 drafts, the Marlins have spent a lot of first round picks on arms and have hit with only a couple. They're due. I wouldn't stop with Lacy either. I'd go all pitching. Pitching is the ticket for acquiring the position players we'll need (if recent history is any indication). Chisholm, L Diaz, J Sanchez were all acquired for pitchers.

College P
College Bat that falls
HS P
College P
College P
College C/Bat

That is that fine with me. The thing to remember is alot of UDFA will be signing so I could see them take a few more bats then sign more arms. Denbo likes those below the radar arms who are like 6'3 210 from small schools and RP only

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If we had the #4 pick I might be for the saving money method so we can go crazy in later picks, but to me there is a clear top 3 in this draft, our pick needs to be used on Tork/Lacy/Martin.

I wouldnt go with the go crazy method in this draft. Its too uncertain with HS kids and even some college ones but I understand why they are thinking about it. We already have too many 35/35+ prospects in Jupiter and lower,we need some elite guys and this is that chance to get them

[sports24/7]

I don't like the under slot method in general, as you're taking more shots at lesser talent rather than one shot at big talent. I think it makes even less sense for the Marlins who now have quality depth in their system, and should be prioritizing blue chip talent. On top of that, the uniqueness of this draft makes that strategy an even worse idea IMO.

Luckily, that article seems to suggest that it's unlikely that Miami are really considering doing that. They should absolutely sit tight and take whoever is left out of the top 3 guys.

[tjfla]

I don't like the under slot method in general, as you're taking more shots at lesser talent rather than one shot at big talent. I think it makes even less sense for the Marlins who now have quality depth in their system, and should be prioritizing blue chip talent. On top of that, the uniqueness of this draft makes that strategy an even worse idea IMO.

Luckily, that article seems to suggest that it's unlikely that Miami are really considering doing that. They should absolutely sit tight and take whoever is left out of the top 3 guys.

This is the reason they are considering it. Instead of grabbing 1 50 FV guy and a bunch of 35 guys(Lacy) they could go with 4/5 45/40 FV guys(underslot)

Ya Im hearing they are unlikely to do it but they are thinking about it

[Nick]

Fangraphs has us taking Martin with Torkelson and Lacy going 1-2.

[tjfla]

Fangraphs has us taking Martin with Torkelson and Lacy going 1-2.

This is when u could see us do the go crazy method. I havent heard if they think Martin can play SS/3B but FG has him as a CF. If Miami thinks he is a CF they should go for Crochet,Patrick Bailey and save 3 million. Yes Austin Martin is a Top 3 talent but the last thing we need is another OF only guy. I know u dont draft based on position need but u also don't draft 25 OF only guys-we already have a full OF in AA,Hi A,Low A and Rookie ball NOT counting the guys who will likely be moved there from MIF spots

IF DJ and Denbo think Austin Martin can play SS or even 3B the pick is fine especially since they have worked with Boras before


FG also updated their rankings and its crazy to see the HS talent they have lowered because no tape,signing issues and other stuff. I know their rankings arent a guide but if u have money to spend in Rds 4 and 5 u could get steal 1st Rd talent very easy