8/16 - 8/22 Minor League Game Thread

[Lee Stone]

The question everyone wants to know is, why are you only looking at this season?

Because it is the culmination of all prior experience: the current product. If Monte Harrison drops his strike out rate to 28% next season, and goes 30/30, that will be the only season that matters.

[fauowls44]

The question everyone wants to know is, why are you only looking at this season?

Yup...and Neidert is 2 years younger than King.

[tjfla]

Yup...and Neidert is 2 years younger than King.

King is older than Gallen,Alcantara,Neidert but age is not what Lee looks at.

[Lee Stone]

King is older than Gallen,Alcantara,Neidert but age is not what Lee looks at.

They are all young ... Gallen and Alcantara and King within a few months of each other. Neidert will be 22 in November. Now that I've looked, what am I supposed to see? Neidert has been professionally trained and coached for four years. King only three.

[Nick]

Because it is the culmination of all prior experience: the current product. If Monte Harrison drops his strike out rate to 28% next season, and goes 30/30, that will be the only season that matters.

This misses the point completely in evaluating prospects, though. In the Lee Stone scouting handbook a team's minor league pitcher and hitter of the year, would also be their defacto #1 hitting and pitching prospects. But that's not the case, it's not that simple, this is about predicting major league success. Stat analyzing is still a big part of it, but it's also important to note whether a player develops consistency from level to level, what their age is at each level, and where they are in their development

(btw in this particular instance, I actually think Michael King is a good prospect, and would easily be in our top 10 prospects at the end of this season, but still the point remains)

[lou]

If we activate Brinson and send him to AAA for the rest of the season and say he hypothetically gets injured down there or struggles mightily or whatever, is it still enough time to send him down for the rest of the year and get that extra year of service time? Or is that too late in the year now.

It will be close, but you can also keep him down 11 days next year or whatever the math turns out to be and get there.

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Brian Schales now 61 ABs into his 1.025 OPS August.

I think it's fair to say they have to protect him on the 40 man going into next year (he's eligible).

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This misses the point completely in evaluating prospects, though. In the Lee Stone scouting handbook a team's minor league pitcher and hitter of the year, would also be their defacto #1 hitting and pitching prospects. But that's not the case, it's not that simple, this is about predicting major league success. Stat analyzing is still a big part of it, but it's also important to note whether a player develops consistency from level to level, what their age is at each level, and where they are in their development

(btw in this particular instance, I actually think Michael King is a good prospect, and would easily be in our top 10 prospects at the end of this season, but still the point remains)

I mean yes regarding all things Lee because one cannot facepalm enough with those two, but that's a bold call with King - a FV45 at best that is projected to be a MR with no secondary pitches - in the Marlins top 10. That's very sad if that is the case.

Am I missing something with him?

You'd have to jump him over multiple of: first rounders (Scott, Rogers, Garret), universally acclaimed Monte despite the whiffs, major SP breakouts (Neidert), hitter breakouts (Diaz, Dean), major arm talent (Alcantara, Guzman, Cabrera), all of the early 2018 picks who are kicking ass for who they are (Pompey, Banfield, Johnson), a bunch of guys who some project as FV50 guys that are lying around (Miller, Devers, Nelson), secondary arms showing just as well as King (Yamamoto, Brigham, Gallen, Quijada, Lee), and more guys that have real upside (Sierra, Schales, etc.)

I could see someone like that sneaking into the high teens (ala Yamamoto, Gallen, and Brigham), but a clear top 10 is really rough to me. Monte, Scott, Rogers, Garret, Neidert, Diaz, Guzman, Cabrera, pick two of Pompey/Banfield/Johnson seems really safe (I am promoting Alcantara to MLB level and those 10 are not ordered).

[fish16]

This misses the point completely in evaluating prospects, though. In the Lee Stone scouting handbook a team's minor league pitcher and hitter of the year, would also be their defacto #1 hitting and pitching prospects. But that's not the case, it's not that simple, this is about predicting major league success. Stat analyzing is still a big part of it, but it's also important to note whether a player develops consistency from level to level, what their age is at each level, and where they are in their development

(btw in this particular instance, I actually think Michael King is a good prospect, and would easily be in our top 10 prospects at the end of this season, but still the point remains)

This post is right on. The reason everyone gives Lee shit is because his way of ranking prospects is essentially to just look at small samples of stats without looking into any of the underlying context. Its why he consistently loves guys who are non prospects and guys who are dominating significantly younger competition. The reason "stuff" is important when evaluating pitchers because it can be incredibly helpful in determining how guys will adjust to better competition as they climb the prospect ladder.

My thing wasnt that King isnt a good prospect, but he would be nowhere near our top guys currently, and our current top guys arent even top 25-50 prospects in baseball.

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Because it is the culmination of all prior experience: the current product. If Monte Harrison drops his strike out rate to 28% next season, and goes 30/30, that will be the only season that matters.

That is an incredibly flawed measurement in that it doesnt take into account facing better competition for the first time, age relative to competition (which you really dont seem to understand is incredibly important), and small sample sizes compared to large sample sizes of what a player has been their entire career. Granted, there is something to say for improving and putting up numbers each year, but what you seem to fail to comprehend every time you talk is that numbers in a vacuum mean nothing unless you dig deeper and look at those numbers within a larger context.

[lou]

This post is right on. The reason everyone gives Lee shit is because his way of ranking prospects is essentially to just look at small samples of stats without looking into any of the underlying context. Its why he consistently loves guys who are non prospects and guys who are dominating significantly younger competition. The reason "stuff" is important when evaluating pitchers because it can be incredibly helpful in determining how guys will adjust to better competition as they climb the prospect ladder

And as Marlins fans, we should know this better then everyone with how spectacularly Y. Petit and Hermida failed as players for the Marlins. They were hall of fame AA players based on their stats.

[Nick]

It will be close, but you can also keep him down 11 days next year or whatever the math turns out to be and get there.

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I think it's fair to say they have to protect him on the 40 man going into next year (he's eligible).

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I mean yes regarding all things Lee because one cannot facepalm enough with those two, but that's a bold call with King - a FV45 at best that is projected to be a MR with no secondary pitches - in the Marlins top 10. That's very sad if that is the case.

Am I missing something with him?

You'd have to jump him over multiple of: first rounders (Scott, Rogers, Garret), universally acclaimed Monte despite the whiffs, major SP breakouts (Neidert), hitter breakouts (Diaz, Dean), major arm talent (Alcantara, Guzman, Cabrera), all of the early 2018 picks who are kicking ass for who they are (Pompey, Banfield, Johnson), a bunch of guys who some project as FV50 guys that are lying around (Miller, Devers, Nelson), secondary arms showing just as well as King (Yamamoto, Brigham, Gallen, Quijada, Lee), and more guys that have real upside (Sierra, Schales, etc.)

I could see someone like that sneaking into the high teens (ala Yamamoto, Gallen, and Brigham), but a clear top 10 is really rough to me. Monte, Scott, Rogers, Garret, Neidert, Diaz, Guzman, Cabrera, pick two of Pompey/Banfield/Johnson seems really safe (I am promoting Alcantara to MLB level and those 10 are not ordered).

Really I'm not seeing a lot of those names as being clearly better than King except Alcantara, Neidert and Harrison. Maybe Diaz, but let's not act like he's having some kind of breakout year this year, he's a pretty good prospect with numbers you'd pretty much expect from him. Other than that, Dean was pretty much a non-prospect like King was coming into the season, both breakout years, don't see how you could say clearly better. I don't think you can argue any of those AAA arms are a better prospect than King. Yamamoto has the numbers, but he has similar questions to King. Schales another non-prospect whose had a little bit of a breakout, but not on the level of King's. Miller, Devers, Nelson have all been pretty bad. (Devers is young, though) I'll give you the 2018 picks looking pretty good so far, but still they're less than 2 months into their professional careers. Rogers is probably a better prospect, lacking results so far, but really in my mind his professional career starts next year, we'll really see what we have then. Braxton Garrett's made 4 starts, we drafted him over 2 years ago.

[Lee Stone]

Really I'm not seeing a lot of those names as being clearly better than King except Alcantara, Neidert and Harrison. Maybe Diaz, but let's not act like he's having some kind of breakout year this year, he's a pretty good prospect with numbers you'd pretty much expect from him. Other than that, Dean was pretty much a non-prospect like King was coming into the season, both breakout years, don't see how you could say clearly better. I don't think you can argue any of those AAA arms are a better prospect than King. Yamamoto has the numbers, but he has similar questions to King. Schales another non-prospect whose had a little bit of a breakout, but not on the level of King's. Miller, Devers, Nelson have all been pretty bad. (Devers is young, though) I'll give you the 2018 picks looking pretty good so far, but still they're less than 2 months into their professional careers. Rogers is probably a better prospect, lacking results so far, but really in my mind his professional career starts next year, we'll really see what we have then. Braxton Garrett's made 4 starts, we drafted him over 2 years ago.

Thanks for the objectivity. I only wish we had surrendered a "more highly-regarded prospect" than King in obtaining C. Smith. It's darned hard to downplay King's ascent this year - A+, AA, and AAA with equally amazing results at all three levels.

[Nick]

Also, I don't know much about King's arsenal, but lou mentioned he doesn't have secondary pitches. I really find it hard to believe a pitcher could put up 100+ innings of 2 ERA ball at AA/AAA without secondary pitches. There would have to be some voodoo shit going on. Maybe I'm wrong, though.

[fish16]

Thanks for the objectivity. I only wish we had surrendered a "more highly-regarded prospect" than King in obtaining C. Smith. It's darned hard to downplay King's ascent this year - A+, AA, and AAA with equally amazing results at all three levels.

No one is downplaying his ascent, the issue is you overrating the ascent and then using that to say he would be arguably our best pitching prospect when he wouldnt be close.

[lou]

Also, I don't know much about King's arsenal, but lou mentioned he doesn't have secondary pitches. I really find it hard to believe a pitcher could put up 100+ innings of 2 ERA ball without secondary pitches. There would have to be some voodoo shit going on. Maybe I'm wrong, though.

This is his scouting report.

"King's best attributes are his two-seam fastball and his command. He has quality life on his 91-95 mph heater, showing the ability to run and sink it on or off either corner. He generates a lot of groundouts and misses his share of bats.

While he has had success as a starter early in his pro career, King lacks a solid second pitch. Both his slider and changeup are decent offerings but unlikely to bother big league hitters. Unless he can improve them, he might face a future as a middle reliever who depends on his sinker."

So maybe those improved, or I think it's very relatable superior control guys (i.e. Y. Petit in the minors) can shred A+/AA and cap out at higher levels.

Guess we'll see.

[Nick]

I just wonder how recent that scouting report is.

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Also, Yusmeiro Petit is still in the league and a quality contributor.

[lou]

Really I'm not seeing a lot of those names as being clearly better than King except Alcantara, Neidert and Harrison. Maybe Diaz, but let's not act like he's having some kind of breakout year this year, he's a pretty good prospect with numbers you'd pretty much expect from him. Other than that, Dean was pretty much a non-prospect like King was coming into the season, both breakout years, don't see how you could say clearly better. I don't think you can argue any of those AAA arms are a better prospect than King. Yamamoto has the numbers, but he has similar questions to King. Schales another non-prospect whose had a little bit of a breakout, but not on the level of King's. Miller, Devers, Nelson have all been pretty bad. (Devers is young, though) I'll give you the 2018 picks looking pretty good so far, but still they're less than 2 months into their professional careers. Rogers is probably a better prospect, lacking results so far, but really in my mind his professional career starts next year, we'll really see what we have then. Braxton Garrett's made 4 starts, we drafted him over 2 years ago.

I think you still have to defer to pedigree with guys like Garret and Rogers. Diaz BB rate is pretty great and they are being aggressive with him moving up, so hopefully he catches up with his average. I think he's as advertised and will maintain his prospect rank. In any event, maybe high teens is too low for King and it's low teens.

Either way, hopefully Caleb is better so it renders it all moot.

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I just wonder how recent that scouting report is.

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Also, Yusmeiro Petit is still in the league and a quality contributor.

It's from the most recent MLB pipeline, so pretty recent (they did give him a FV45 which is a nice acknowledgement).

Petit was all world in AA which is the point. His stats should be Greg Maddux from the season.

He has 5 WAR in his career, since 2006. Half of that was the last 2 seasons.

It's just a solid example IMO that minor league stats aren't predictive of future success for all of the reasons you mentioned above. I think we're all on the same page there, except for 2 people.