Revised Top Prospects List

[nny]

Always loved smolinski but so sad he's in the OF now

[emkayseven]

Yeah I'd be pissed if they didn't protect Skipworth

[lou]

Catchers - Buck, Veteran C, Brantly, Skipworth (4)
Infielders - Morrison, Bonifacio, Reyes, Cox, Veteran 3B type, Dobbs, Solano (7)
Outfielders - Stanton, Ruggiano, Veteran LF, Veteran CF, Gorkys, M. Ozuna, Smolinski, one of Cousins/Mattison (8)
Starting Pitchers - Johnson, Buerhle, Nolasco, Turner, Eovaldi, Hand (6)
Relievers/Arms - Bell, Cishek, Dunn, Webb, LeBlanc, Sanabia, Jennings, Hatcher, Koehler, A. Ramos, E. Reed, Rosario, Urena, Ceda, Caminero (15)

That's 40. Maybe Rosario/Ceda are still hurt in spring training which opens up a spot, but yea. I'd expect something 95% similar.

[Erick]

I think Lowell belongs in the top 10.

For the sake of discussion, what does everyone else think about Lowell? Lou, where would you rank him on your list if you had to go past 10?

[Bucklin12]

I think Lowell is around 10. He's been crazy inconsistent, but he's got the stuff of a 2/3 in a solid rotation.

[lou]

Probably 13-15 range. He should be dominating his level because he is a college guy, so we can't take to much stock into his stats, yet. But he is doing pretty great so doing what you're supposed to does count for something. I think putting him 13-15 is pretty aggressive personally. I think for 6th rounders, you need to see 2-3 years of production moving levels from them to move up into "significant" prospect territory. Especially with college pitchers as I have seen to many of them kill all levels of A and then flatten out in AA/AAA.

[Bucklin12]

I don't know. Could be splitting hairs, but I don't think Lowell is a typical 6th round college starter. Had had buzz for the second round and has very lively stuff, but with some command problems. Quite atypical to the traditional college starter sign, actually.

Who do you put right ahead of him?
--------------------
In other words, he's closer to an Adam Conley type of college arm than a Zach Neal type of college arm.

[lou]

If I were to expand this to a top 20

1. Fernandez
2. Yelich
3. Turner
4. Heaney
< - Eovaldi if he counted
5. Brantly
6. Conley
< - Hand if he counted
7. Cox
8. Realmuto
9. C. James
10. Ozuna

11. Keys < - I believe he is universally considered breakout player in farm, look at the BB/K, and plays CF
12. Urena < - Big fastall/slider combo. Everything I have read and seen from scouts is he has most breakout potential to develop into serious nasty
13. Solorzano < - Was ranked 7-12 on most lists preseason, apparently monstrous defensively and super toolsy. If he hits at all will be a plus player. I think since none of us watch these guys day to day, deferring to what the scouts think is the smartest thing to do for guys like him even if the numbers aren't there.
14-19, I think this is a Hope/Lowell/Brice/Ramos/Caminero/Reed power arm clump that could develop. And those are in order of preference but at the end of the day I don't think there is much of a difference for a prospect list. (Jennings and Hatcher would also fall into here if they counted.)
20 - Skipworth - He still is young, left handed and has raw power at a tough position

And I can fully admit I am not very familiar with the 2012 draft class besides Heaney. I suspect 1-2 guys, specifically Romero who apparently was a nice get in the 3rd, would crack this list somewhere but I would have no basis to put him anywhere if I did.

[Bucklin12]

Good list. I think you're right. It's mostly preference from 11 down.

Personally, might would look closer to this:

1. Fernandez
2. Yelich
3. Turner
4. Heaney
5. Conley
6. Cox
7. Brantly
8. Ozuna
9. Realmuto
10. James
11. Lowell (78 H and 108 SO in 100 IP is very good. even for a college guy. he's also only less than a year older than guys like Urena, Brice, Hope).
12. Urena
13. Keys
14. Barnes (really liked his season so far)
15. Solorzano (Scouts seem high on Solorzano, but the production needs to start somewhere. He is starting to heat up and has held his own in Jamestown, but he's not young (22 years old next week). I see him as a 4th OF with plus defense, maybe with a nice surge in his late twenties to be an everyday player.
16. Brice
17. Koehler
18. Hope
19. Ramos
20. Caminero

Didn't include 2012 draftees, but Copeland and Romero probably belong here somewhere.

Other guys are pretty much the same: Hodges, Reed, Poveda (been very effective in AAA), Canha, Dayton, Flynn, and then a lot of the 2012 guys: Dean, Nola, Logan, Newell, Rivera, etc.

[lou]

Read up on Romero, Copeland and a few other guys. I think Romero is rather significant as an offensive minded likely 2B (position is up in the air between SS/2B/3B) who everyone thinks will hit. Keith Law had him as a top 50 prospect, and BA had him 79. He seems like a nice get as a tough sign.

I'm done now.

A+
1. Fernandez
2. Yelich
A
3. Turner
B+
4. Heaney
B
< - Eovaldi if he counted
5. Brantly
6. Conley
< - Hand if he counted
C+
7. Cox
8. Realmuto
9. C. James
10. Ozuna
11. Romero
C
12. Keys
13. Urena
14. Solorzano
15. Hope
16. Lowell
17. Brice
< - Jennings/Hatcher if they counted
18. S. Rosario
19. Ramos
20. Caminero
21. Reed
22. Skipworth
23. Copeland
C-
24. Barnes
25. Nola
26. Koehler
27. Smolinski
28. Perio
29. Canha
30. Mattison

[lou]

I lied, I got bored (or hungover).

A+
1. Fernandez SP - Potential legit # 2 RHP, lacks true 3rd out pitch to be considered a potential ace like Matt Moore/Dylan Bundy, but two super plus offerings will get you along way too. Top 10-15 overall prospect baseball. Absolutely dominating much older competition. Overpowering fastball and plus curveball, needs to work on slider and change up deception as progresses levels. All signs look good though and even an average 3rd pitch would compliment tremendous fastball and curveball. Could become monster monster with 3rd above average pitch. Marlins # 1 pick 2011. ETA 2014
2. Yelich LF, maybe CF - Potential way above average 20/20 LF, top 15-20 overall prospect baseball. Lefty, should hit for average, and play good or better defense in LF. Marlins working him CF in 2012 a lot, would be enormous bonus. Scouts concerned arm strength and routes to balls in CF, and even worse considering Marlins Park dimensions. Marlins # 1 pick 2010. Making them count. ETA July 2013

A
3. Turner SP - Likely a good future 3, has lost some fastball speed as he has progressed through minors throwing more innings, but still throws really hard so that lowers his earlier # 2 projections to 3, which is fine. Throws same combo as Fernandez, great curveball, needs to work on changeup. Top 30-40 overall prospect baseball. Received Anibal/Infante. ETA Now

B+
4. Heaney SP - Potential finesse # 3/4 lefty and Buerhle replacement, likely top 75-100 overall prospect in baseball. Should move fast in system. Average fastball, but controls it and deceptive change up well and pounds zone. Also throws average curveball and cutters giving him 4 legit pitches, but not one that is truly above average and an out. If he keeps control, should be able to handle himself. This is a high floor pick which is appreciated compared to Marlins boom/bust history. Marlins # 1 pick 2012. ETA July 2015

B
(Eovaldi, SP/RP, if counted) - Potential # 4 starting pitcher / premium David Hernandez setup guy. Throws really really hard in relief upper 90s, and lower when starting. Is a fastball/slider pitcher, doesn't throw many change ups which prevents him from being more than a backend starter or plus reliever. But nonetheless, a great arm and absolutely going to be pitching in bigs for awhile. Received for Hanley. ETA Now
5. Brantly C - Potential strong side starting/platoon catcher. Should hit RHP at minimum. Top 100-150 overall prospect, Received with Turner for Anibal/Infante. ETA July 2013
6. Conley SP/RP - Potential 3/4 starting pitcher / serious power lefty out of pen, top 100-150 overall prospect. Deceptive delivery lefty, has a plus fastball, average silder and changeup. Early results in minors are fantastic and he is being fast tracked along with Fernandez, but nowhere near same prospect level. And feasting on guys with control and plus pitches. In AA/AAA decision will be made if he becomes a fastball/slider reliever, or continues to develop change up to start longterm. Marlins second rounder 2011. ETA July 2014 starting, earlier if moved to pen

B-
(Hand SP if counted) - Potential 4/5 lefty starter, or lefty swingman. Throws a low 90s fastball, curveball is his out pitch. Will need to develop changeup to survive longterm in rotation. Marlins 2nd rounder in 2008. ETA Now, but wouldn't hurt to keep in AAA.

C+
7. Cox 3B - Rushed by cardinals a little, acquired for Mujica. Considered one of top hitters in his draft class, but hasn't developed top end power expected from 3B. Could turn into a moderate 3B starter or platoon 3B type if improves at plate a little. Fringe Top 150 prospect. ETA Late 2013./2014.
8. Realmuto C - High upside young catcher who changed positions in minors, hit well 2011, took small step back in 2012 but nothing to notable to be concerned as still learning to catch. Will probably repeat high A or may be aggressive and push him to AA. Could be a very nice right hand compliment to Brantly in few years. Third round pick 2010. ETA 2015
9. C. James SP - 2009 first rounder major disappointment this year. Potential future lefty # 4, but could go the way of Aaron Thompson. Throws a fastball, changeup, slider, and curve, but should probably stop throwing curves by all accounts and work on perfecting changeup. Hopefully, that is why his stats are down as he is just developing his change up to compliment fastball/slider combo. Fastball velocity has dipped a little to low 90s, so there is some concern. This will be his last year his first round pedigree keeps him high on lists. Needs a big 2013 not to be surpassed by the 2011-2012 pitchers below. ETA 2015.
10. Ozuna LF/RF - Could turn into a starting corner outfielder. Tons of power, big arm, but questions if he can hit MLB pitching as he strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much. Although he is young and improving. Was in international signing in 2008, will be added to 40 man this winter. Might be a big trade chip if develops with future corners likely Stanton/Yelich. ETA late 2014/2015
11. A. Romero 2B - 2012 3rd rounder, offensive minded likely 2B that scouts love his bat. Was considered a tough sign and Marlins made it happen. Marlins also trying at SS and 3B, probably ends up at 2B. ETA 2017.

C
12. Keys CF - Breakout player Marlins system, hitting crap out of the ball. If he can handle CF and repeats success in Jupiter, could jump up list fast. Or completely fall off like Perio. 17th round pick in 2009. ETA Late 2015/2016
13. Urena RP - Best pure power arm in system among non massive SP prospects above. Fireballing RHP reliever upper 90s type that hopefully grows into a few more mph and control. Needs to develop a secondary pitch and could be a big RP prospect. Will be added to 40 man this winter. International signing. ETA Late 2015/2016
14. Solorzano OF - Super toolsy outfielder, scouts in love with defense and projectability in bat, production hasn't caught up to athletic ability but very young and no rush. International signing. ETA 2016/2017.
15. Hope SP - Project as raw but could be future 3/4 starter if secondary pitches (curveball, changeup) develop into out pitches. Could be a fast riser or faller in a year or two. Starting in Jamestown so way off. 2010 5th rounder. ETA 2017
16. Lowell SP - Throwing well in A ball, but he should as a college guy. Seeing how he handles AA in a year or two will be telling, but a power arm to follow. Working as starter now to get innings and see what is there in 2 years. Could develop anywhere 3-5 SP, or reliever. Is a fastball/slider guy, will need the changeup to be a starter. Tough to project these type of arms, but he can throw. 6th rounder 2010. ETA 2016
17. Brice SP - Another recent power arm draftee with lots of potential nasty stuff if he can control it. Fastball and curve projects as plus, as with all fringy SP prospects here, needs a third out pick to not be moved into pen. Great strikeout numbers, as with Lowell, so far. Part of the good crop of projectable arms in 2010 draft. 2010 9th rounder. ETA 2016
(Jennings/Hatcher RP) - Potential 5-6-7 relievers in bullpen. Big arms and good stuff. Great story with hatcher as a converted catcher, and amazing facial hair. Hatcher 2006 5th rounder, Jennings a 9th rounder in 2009. ETA Now.
18. S. Rosario RP - Big arm, has control and lately injury issues. Could be a good 3-4 RHP out of pen. International signing. ETA Summer 2013.
19. Ramos RP - fastball/slider. Doesn't have top end fastball, but producing results and could use slider enough to be in pen. Late pick in 2009 draft. Will likely be added to 40 man. ETA Summer 2014
20. Caminero RP - Really old for his level, every scout thinks he has a crazy fastball though. If he ever finds control could be a really positive reliever arm,, but most volatile guy in top 20. Was an international signing. ETA 2014
21. Reed RP - Another power bullpen arm and could be a 3-5 RHP out of a solid bullpen. Will be in mix for final pen spot in 2013. Acquired from Texas for Cantu. ETA Now
22. Skipworth C - Still has a ton of raw power, lefty, and plays catcher. Will be added to 40 man and Marlins will keep developing hoping he can hit .240 against RHP in the future. He was clubs # 1 pick in 2008 (6th overall) and considered a major disappointment so far. Which is an understatement. ETA 2015.
23. Copeland OF - 2012 draftee 3rd round. Toolsy OF with high upside if learns to BB/hit power. ETA 2017.
(Cousins CF if he counted) - Potential strong side platoon/4th OF if he ever hits a little. Fantastic defense and power, just needs to hit the ball. Disappointing 2012 thus far. 2006 draftee of Marlins. ETA Now

C-
24. Barnes 2B - Having insane offensive year in greensboro, but a lot of college guys do. Seeing how he handles Jupiter will be telling if he is future bench/starter material. Is a converted catcher playing 2B. 90% playing at 2B but catching a few games, so that's interesting if they move him forward as a catcher. 9th round 2011 draft. ETA 2015
25. Nola 2B/SS - Utility Infielder potential, Marlins started him in Greensboro so will move quick. 5th round 2012. ETA 2015
26. Koehler SP/RP - Bullpen longman. Low ceiling with no true out pitch, but throws hard enough and has command and could have a productive MLB career in back of pens eating innings and as a 6th SP. 2008 late round draft pick. ETA Now
(Petersen CF if he counted) - Potential bench outfielder, can play all 3 spots. Low power but could hit a little to make a nice guy to have around. 4th rounder in 2007. ETA Now
27. Smolinski LF/RF - Bench outfielder potential, nice BB/K, low power so won't be a starter. Received in the Willingham/Olsen deal that also netted Bonifacio. Probably protected on 40 man next year. ETA July 2013
28. Perio 2B - Utility infielder, could slap hit way to a low-end starter. Biggest faller in system after productive 2011. Was considered top 8-15 range before season. Was a very late pick in 2009 draft. ETA 2015
29. Canha 1B - Bench backup 1B. Hit 25 HR in 2011, and is in low single digits 2012 in Jupiter. But average and OBP are up. Could still turn into a viable bat, but the power upside is limited for position to turn into a starter 2010 7th rounder.. ETA 2015
30. Gorkys Hernandez/Kevin Mattison CF - Bench 5th OF. Fast, plays defense, won't hit much. Gorkys acquired for Gaby Sanchez, Mattison a 28th round pick for Marlins in 2008. ETA Now

REALLY done now. Sure there should be 2-3 random power arms (Dayton) in here besides the back end, but I don't think anyone after Romero in any order really matters

[Bucklin12]

Killer.
--------------------
Great stuff, lou. As a small note, Solorzano isn't actually that young. He'll be 22 this week. For context that is the same age as Skipworth, Keys, and Stanton. He's older than Ozuna, Yelich, Realmuto, and almost every SP prospect on this list.

I guess that's why I don't value his prospect status a ton. But his tools are undeniable and he seems to be putting it together offensively lately.