SFM's 2011 Number Two Prospect

[Miamarlin21]

Number One-Matt Dominguez, 3B


Vote and discuss. Voting ends in two days.

*Please note that due to only being able to post 10 people at at time, names who could end up in the top 10 are not listed but will be listed as more people are eliminated (chosen)

[Cambridge]

Went for Hand, not sure if the guy is just very hittable given the .352 BABIP in A+, compared with .331 in A the previous year or was very unlucky last year. His peripherals look good, and if the improved control is genuine I think he could see the big leagues next year at some point (cup of coffee most likely).

[lou]

I see the BABIP, but it's still a lot of hits and control issues. I think he needs a breakout this year in AA to get over James. Chad was dumped immediately into Greensboro and has better projected secondary pitches besides Hand's curve. James is probably the safer of the two, and thus gets my vote.

I think Hand is 3 or 4 depending on Yelich. Not sure what order I'd want those two right now.

[DropkickAlex]

James. I think Yelich will be my 3 with Hand over Skipworth for 4,5.

[Bobbob1313]

James. The K numbers and GB rates are awesome for a young lefty, especially given his stuff. If he figures out, he'll be very cool.

[Jay]

Your all going to skew the results by posting who your going to vote for in the future.

[nny]

should make it so we can so who votes for who

[wanks1212]

Jesus H. Is Tom Koehler's Mom a member here?

[nny]

I have a feeling it's that one poster that always talks about him and Elih (Fishy I think his name is?)

[Ralph]

I'm gonna go with Hand. He improved quite a bit this past season.

[wanks1212]

I have a feeling it's that one poster that always talks about him and Elih (Fishy I think his name is?)

Yeah. To some extent I understand liking Koehler, but putting him in the top 5 is cwwwazzzy. He shouldn't even be ahead of Elih, let alone guys like James and Hand.

[lou]

I think Koehler is well ahead of Elih. He throws much harder. Koehler might have a swingman future. Elih, is heading to Yusmiero Petit infamy.

[nny]

And, went with Hand as well.

You look at their Greensboro campaigns (Both 19 years old)

James / Hand
K%: 20.5% / 21.4%
Ks%: 17.2% / 16.1%
uBB%: 12.7% / 11.2%
WP%: 3.5% / 3.9%
HBP%: 1.0% / 1.2%

BABIP: 0.349 / .332
OFFB%: 28.9% / 28.2%
HR/FB%: 2.7% / 10.3%
2B/H: 22.6% / 17.7%
XBH%: 5.7% / 6.1%

ERA: 5.12 / 4.86
FIP: 3.41 / 4.06
xFIP: 4.23 / 3.97

So Hand barely struck out more guys, but James barely struck out more guys via swinging. Hand was barely better at limiting walks, but he also barely "beat" James in WP and HBP.

So their strike outs were essentially even. Their control was essential even.

Going to batted ball data, their OFFB% was basically the same exact. James had a huge lead in HRs, but Hand had a huge lead in 2b/3b, and when you look at their total XBH%, James barely has an advantage. But Hand was also a lot less hittable though both had really bad BABIPs

So their batted ball data was essentially even. And Hand ends up coming on top in xFIP do to superior K/BB.

The difference is that Hand had major improvement in Jupiter

Jupiter / Greensboro
K%: 22.0% / 21.4%
Ks%: 13.3% / 16.1%
uBB%: 7.7% / 11.2%
WP%: 0.5% / 3.9%
HBP%: 0.8% / 1.2%

BABIP: 0.365 / .332
OFFB%: 25.7% / 28.2%
HR/FB%: 7.8% / 10.3%
2B/H: 21.2% / 17.7%
XBH%: 7.1% / 6.1%

ERA: 3.33 / 4.86
FIP: 3.26 / 4.06
xFIP: 3.39 / 3.97

Strike outs went up but lower strike out via swinging aint good. But look at the massive control improvement. Walks way down, wild pitches way down. Less OFFB but little more XBH, but that's mostly due to higher BABIP. And lower HRs/more 2b can be contributed to Jupiter's park. And stellar fip and xfip, stellar ERA even with that huge BABIP. And if he was easily hittable, he should be giving up a lot more XBH but he's mostly giving up singles so it's not like he's being hit hard.

James has more upside, but not by much, and Hand has both 1) broken out and improved his control and 2) is in the upper minors and we will probably see him some time next year.

[lou]

Yea, but don't you have to go with the upside on the prospect list? Plus, James is probably safer moving levels with his repertoire even if statistically they are a toss up.

I mean, I agree it's close but I'm just going the other way. It'll be really nice if one of them pans out into 200 innings in 3 years.

[nny]

I go with Hand because of the fact it's not "IF his control improves." His control has already improved. That makes him safer to me. James's likely will improve but his ability to make the major league roster hinges on that. If his control doesn't improve, he's nothing. Since Hand has already had that improvement, he's at least going to be SOMETHING unless it falls off the face of the earth again. And considering their upside isn't that much difference, I'll go with the safer one.

Definitely isn't a big difference between the two and it's a lot more "2a, 2b" but explaining why I went with Hand over James.