3 A.m. Boredom Random Thoughts on State of Milb Starters

[Bucklin12]

I think James and Hand are pretty safe bets to be solid / above average mid-rotation starters, for a lot of the same reasons Nny mentioned.

I think West can be a frontline guy. He's had an erratic career, but he's been handled erratically. His development through the low minors is fantastic and then he had surgery, struggled a bit to get it back in AA, and when he did, he saw the big leagues. I think he'll bloom late because of that, but his peak years should be pretty fantastic.

I wouldn't put it past Kaminska to be a back of the rotation strike thrower either. While he can strike guys out at a decent rate, he has been hittable. A lot of that might be park factors as with most young starters there's a pretty drastic change in hit rates from Gboro to Jupiter. He also has good scouting reports of a solid low 90s fastball with room for projection.

[nny]

I like to think right now

West
Hand
James (based on level)

Sanabia(iPhone autocorrected to Sandbox, Nickname!)
Rasmussen
A. Miller (seriously, you never know)
Olmos

Kaminska
Koehler

And I don't think we have a legitimate 10th SP prospect unless someone else emerges. Tucker and RVH have been relievers to me for awhile. They'd be after Marinez, Ceda, and Jennings only though.

Also late with this but

Olmos has always had good potential. And his performance is not great but his getting strike outs and ground balls, his performance is basically right there with James and with what Hand did in Greensboro. He's definitely behind them in potential, but guy is real cool. Only reason I can think to have him below Sanabia is a level thing, and really don't get Rasmussen. Been dealing with injuries past couple years but now he's here and he's smashing faces, which also makes his performance this year all the more impressive cuz he's dealing with rust.
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Also. I think Sanabia is being rated a little low. He is not just a finesse guy. He has the same velocity as Hand. I don't think GB/FB rates are as conclusive as they used to be as the change-up (a pop-up producing pitch - and pop-up data is coming for MiLB) has become more and more primary in rotations these days. I would tier him above Olmos, and I really like Olmos.

I wasn't calling him Finesse (as that label is for low speed guys), but he doesn't get strike outs. And there's already pop up data for MILB (7.2% of the time for Sanabia, don't know what ml average is).

And as far as conclusive for batted ball data, I mean, study has showed that major league FB% is basically static to that of minor league FB%. Obviously some guys are going to break the mold but you don't count on a guy being an exception to a rule.

[Fish and Chips]

VandenHurk's last 4 starts
4-0 27 inn 4 er (3HR) 7 BB 24 K 1.33 ERA

having a nice July

[Fritz]

Nice. I really like RVH. I wonder what the organization has in store for him. I envision him as an elite setup guy or above average closer.

[fishy]

I really like the pitching in AA Villanueva and Koehler
Miller is coming along slowly
any chance the young starters get a peek in September

[Jay]

any chance the young starters get a peek in September

the ones on the 40 man have a chance

[fishy]

I see well theres always next year

[fishy]

Koehler and Villanueva are dominating Southern League
How about a shot at Triple A hitters

[Bucklin12]

Both guys are super interesting. Villanueva does not get ground balls or strike outs. And his .219 BAA looks very promising until you see his .243 BABIP. He also hasn't given up many HR, so that might be a good sign. I still think Villanueva is going to get tore up in the PCL, but you're right, I think he merits a move.

Koehler has a lot more promise. He can hit mid-90s and can hold 91-93 throughout a quality start. He strikes enough guys out (7.69 K/9), and has decent enough command (2.8 BB/9). His batted ball data looks considerably better than Villanueva's too. While he also doesn't get many groundballs (0.88 GO/AO), he does have a more than realistic BABIP of .305 while only giving up 0.48 HR/9. I think Koehler has a shot at the back of someone's rotation, maybe not a very good one, but he could at least be a swingman on a decent team.

[fishy]

Yeah im interested in both of them and whats next
I actually saw Koehler a few nights ago ,good stuff
and Villanueva seems to do the job