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title explains it all lol
nola
RVH: After putting up a 5.14 FIP/4.78 xFIP, I had some hope in him in either 1) lowering his 50% FB rate to at least 45% or something and 2) upping that 2.33 K/BB with his stuff, getting his FIP to the 4.30 range, making him a fine #4 kinda guy.
But his K rates in NOLA are a bit down and his walks are way up, after putting a 3.00 K/BB there last year it's just 1.86 this year. The good news his his FB%, as it's down from 47.7% to 38.1%. But it's also a small sample size and he's also rocking a 24.2% LD rate.
At 25, I think by this point you just gotta turn him into a BP arm.
West: just 5 starts, but 31.4% FB rate, 8.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9. How could you not love this cat.
I mean, give him like, what, 7.5 K/9, 3.75 BB/9 for 2 K/BB, and a 1.00 HR/9 and you get 4.23 FIP. And that's aces if he really learns control.
Only problem is he has pretty decent lefty/right splits in his milb career (3.07 K/BB and 27% FB rate v.s. lefties, 2.09 K/BB and 38% FB against righties). He might seriously have to turn into a BP arm if righties eat him up too much in the majors.
Tucker: Guy is about to turn 24 and still doesn't have minor league production. His one "good" year in the minors was fueled by a .241 BABIP and a 2% HR/FB rate. For a guy with "stuff" he doesn't strike batters out well, he has horrible control, and he has average batted ball data. I just don't really have hope for him right now.
AA
Sanabia: Well not really AA anymore. But control guys who don't get ground balls are meh. I mean, you really wanna do two out of three things: Have good strike out stuff, have good control, or get ground balls. Do two out of three and your a good SP. Do all three and you're an ace. Do one and not much to hope on. (And tucker doesn't do any of the three!)
But still, stuff is pretty cool. If we say something like, 6.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9, that's a 4.50 FIP. Not horrible. But that still might be a bit optimistic and there isn't much upside to go from there.
Koehler: And he doesn't really have anything going for him. He K's guys but not at a great rate, he doesn't have horrible control but it isn't good, and his batted ball data is average too. He's not BAD at any area but he's not GOOD either. Maybe something goes up for him but as of now I definitely think he won't cut it in the rotation.
Jupiter
Kaminska: He's basically Sanabia. Control but average batted balla data and not great K rates. Cool back of the rotation but that's about it. Certainly not bad though.
Brad "I want to hold your" Hand: I love him. I've loved him since his performance in the year we drafted him, but now he has control. Like I said, 2 of 3 = good starter, 3 of 3 = ace. He's got the K's, he's got the gb's (31% FB rate last year, 29% this year, so cool), and now he's adding control. Guy is so cool. Like with west I think you can say probably mid rotation guy right now but he a lot of things to dream on.
Greensboro
James: Same ol' tale. Ground balls and strike outs. if the control comes, ace. Our trio of West, Hand, and James of lefties is so cool. 34% FB rate aint as cool and he might end up going more towards average batted balla data.
Olmos: And a fourth, really. His K/BB is basically that of Hand's last year in Greensboro. He's getting K's and control isn't there yet but he's young enough that you can dream on it. This guy doesn't seem to be getting any talk and yeah he's #4 in that lefty group but that aint a bad thing here. And his batted ball data aint as good, but 35% FB rate so far is still nice.
Montgomery: He's absolutely killing peripherally what normal ground ball pitchers do in A ball
Him (22yo): 7.9 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9
Average (20yo): 6.46 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...rs-part-three/
yeah, you do take a step back with the two year age difference. You gotta see what he does higher up first. But lot to like with what he's doing so far. I mean, just how much is that step back? If we assume the step back is to what the average guy is doing at that level, that average guy turns into a 4.30 ERA in the majors normally. If it's worse QQ
Jose Alvarez: other Hermida guy, he's got a 8.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 34% FB rate. Unfortunately almost half of his IP has also been out of the pen and he's a year old for the league, and small sample size is this is a big jump in production compared to his career. But still, pretty cool stuff and something to watch.
So I mean, you rank the guys in teirs, I think it's gotta be something like
Teir 1:
West
Hand
James
Olmos
Teir 2:
Sanabia
Kaminska
Teir 3:
Montgomery
RVH
Koehler
plus then you got the Winters and maybe even Teddies/Elihs. pick one and you got a top10 list
nola
RVH: After putting up a 5.14 FIP/4.78 xFIP, I had some hope in him in either 1) lowering his 50% FB rate to at least 45% or something and 2) upping that 2.33 K/BB with his stuff, getting his FIP to the 4.30 range, making him a fine #4 kinda guy.
But his K rates in NOLA are a bit down and his walks are way up, after putting a 3.00 K/BB there last year it's just 1.86 this year. The good news his his FB%, as it's down from 47.7% to 38.1%. But it's also a small sample size and he's also rocking a 24.2% LD rate.
At 25, I think by this point you just gotta turn him into a BP arm.
West: just 5 starts, but 31.4% FB rate, 8.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9. How could you not love this cat.
I mean, give him like, what, 7.5 K/9, 3.75 BB/9 for 2 K/BB, and a 1.00 HR/9 and you get 4.23 FIP. And that's aces if he really learns control.
Only problem is he has pretty decent lefty/right splits in his milb career (3.07 K/BB and 27% FB rate v.s. lefties, 2.09 K/BB and 38% FB against righties). He might seriously have to turn into a BP arm if righties eat him up too much in the majors.
Tucker: Guy is about to turn 24 and still doesn't have minor league production. His one "good" year in the minors was fueled by a .241 BABIP and a 2% HR/FB rate. For a guy with "stuff" he doesn't strike batters out well, he has horrible control, and he has average batted ball data. I just don't really have hope for him right now.
AA
Sanabia: Well not really AA anymore. But control guys who don't get ground balls are meh. I mean, you really wanna do two out of three things: Have good strike out stuff, have good control, or get ground balls. Do two out of three and your a good SP. Do all three and you're an ace. Do one and not much to hope on. (And tucker doesn't do any of the three!)
But still, stuff is pretty cool. If we say something like, 6.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9, that's a 4.50 FIP. Not horrible. But that still might be a bit optimistic and there isn't much upside to go from there.
Koehler: And he doesn't really have anything going for him. He K's guys but not at a great rate, he doesn't have horrible control but it isn't good, and his batted ball data is average too. He's not BAD at any area but he's not GOOD either. Maybe something goes up for him but as of now I definitely think he won't cut it in the rotation.
Jupiter
Kaminska: He's basically Sanabia. Control but average batted balla data and not great K rates. Cool back of the rotation but that's about it. Certainly not bad though.
Brad "I want to hold your" Hand: I love him. I've loved him since his performance in the year we drafted him, but now he has control. Like I said, 2 of 3 = good starter, 3 of 3 = ace. He's got the K's, he's got the gb's (31% FB rate last year, 29% this year, so cool), and now he's adding control. Guy is so cool. Like with west I think you can say probably mid rotation guy right now but he a lot of things to dream on.
Greensboro
James: Same ol' tale. Ground balls and strike outs. if the control comes, ace. Our trio of West, Hand, and James of lefties is so cool. 34% FB rate aint as cool and he might end up going more towards average batted balla data.
Olmos: And a fourth, really. His K/BB is basically that of Hand's last year in Greensboro. He's getting K's and control isn't there yet but he's young enough that you can dream on it. This guy doesn't seem to be getting any talk and yeah he's #4 in that lefty group but that aint a bad thing here. And his batted ball data aint as good, but 35% FB rate so far is still nice.
Montgomery: He's absolutely killing peripherally what normal ground ball pitchers do in A ball
Him (22yo): 7.9 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9
Average (20yo): 6.46 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...rs-part-three/
yeah, you do take a step back with the two year age difference. You gotta see what he does higher up first. But lot to like with what he's doing so far. I mean, just how much is that step back? If we assume the step back is to what the average guy is doing at that level, that average guy turns into a 4.30 ERA in the majors normally. If it's worse QQ
Jose Alvarez: other Hermida guy, he's got a 8.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 34% FB rate. Unfortunately almost half of his IP has also been out of the pen and he's a year old for the league, and small sample size is this is a big jump in production compared to his career. But still, pretty cool stuff and something to watch.
So I mean, you rank the guys in teirs, I think it's gotta be something like
Teir 1:
West
Hand
James
Olmos
Teir 2:
Sanabia
Kaminska
Teir 3:
Montgomery
RVH
Koehler
plus then you got the Winters and maybe even Teddies/Elihs. pick one and you got a top10 list
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