July Defense Round Up

[nny]

Total Zone basically mimics UZR

It is far from perfect but it's better than the nothing we have now.

It was created by the CHONE projection guy to cover years before UZR/plus minus/ect to better qualify guys from 50-90's

he then realized he could also use it for minor leaguers so he does that now with it

Articles on it

about it: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...-back-to-1956/

About it for MILB: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...on-the-minors/

09 has been updated, and will be updated again in the offseason.

How our guys have done
Jai Miller
This season: +4 CF, +4 RF
career per-500 chances
CF: +2.6
LF/RF: +2

I think fair to say "average defense"

John Raynor
This season: +0 LF
career per-500 chances
LF/RF: -3.4

Just quantifies the scouting reports. Which is sad given his speed

Cameron Maybin
This season: +13 CF
Career per-500 chances
CF: +6.9

Maybins minor league defensive numbers are actually very weird
06: +18
07: -14
08: +2
09: +13

Maybe park factors? 07 happened in the FSL, and in 08 he had a -6 at home but +8 away.

JAX (AA)

MOrrison
This season: +5 (Small sample size, just 71 chances)
Career: -10.4

Big thing to note for Morrison is improvement
07: -11
08: -4
09: +5

however also then need to take league factor in, which then gives us

07: -13.4
08: -7.5
09: +3.9

Which would then put his career per 500 numbers at -19 lol

but every year has been improvement so let's hope average when he gets up here but I'd wager he's probably around -5

Mike Stanton
Season: +8 RF
Career per 500: +13.7 RF
Also doesn't include his arm.
Drop should be expected as he grows into his body
Probably +5 when he's up here
Also doesn't include his arm though which is suppose to be a plus

Scott Cousins
Season: +12 CF
Career per 500: +12.5 CF, +5.7 RF
Keep in mind doesn't include his cannon arm. BC 2.0, with less defense and pop but better plate discipline. I want both of them and maybin in our OF next year. No ball lands. Ever. EVER.

Oh and think I already posted this but BC's minor league career /500 in RF: +20. PLUS FUCKING 20.
AND THAT DOESN'T INCLUDE HIS FUCKING ARM
THIS GUY NEEDS TO FUCK START IN THE MAJORS

Bryan Petersen
Season: -4 LF
Career per 500: +2.6 CF (382 chances), -5 RF (285 chances), -9 LF (275 chances)
His above average CF stats but then horrible corner fielder stats really bring a huh? But also small sample sizes.

His total OF career added up gives him -3.2 (942 total chances). I think scouting reports of average in all 3 spots is probably what to expect.

Jupiter A+
Matt Dominguez
Season: +12 (MLE of +8). per 500 chances: MLE of +19. Dude's ML ready yeah.

To me this is big though because last year in greensboro wasn't good: -6 in 211 chances (MLE of -10.6, or -25 in 500 chances). Small Smaple size? One of the times the numbers aren't right? Or bad scouting? Turns out some of #1 and #2 is likely the answer and about +15 runs in the majors is probably what to expect lol. I figured that would be the case for last year numbers but it still scared me and I only had him at +10 defense in an earlier projection I did.

Greensboro
Isaac Galloway
Season: +4 RF (101 chances), -1 CF (122 chances)
last year: -1 CF (163 chances)
Below average CF, plus RF? Likely. No CF hurts his value though. I know he's 19 but I'm just not high on him atm. I know he's only 19 but it's also Greensboro, show some god damn pop. Put in park factor and his HR/FB is just around 2.5%.

Jake Smolinski
Season: -2 3B (107 chances)
MLE per 500: -4 3b

was at +3 2b (MLE: +0.8 per 500) last season with those being the only real IF sample sizes.

Hopefully with more reps he's +0-+5 at 2b/3b

so more or less it equal scouting reports but just helps quantify

[lou]

I'm pretty sure you've done this, or thought really hard about it at a minimum, but can you quantify Cousins a bit? i.e., let's give him + 10, 15, 20, etc, however you want to spread it for a low-mid-awesome projection of his defensive ability. What level of offense is needed for him to be an average and above average producer?

I'm just curious. Because if he comes up and hits like, .260/.320/.425, is that going to be better than an average defense, .280/.350/.450 hitter? Where's the production break? I guess this can go for Carroll also.

[Ramp]

Brett Carroll is so for me

[nny]

From what I've seen

per 650 PA

40 points of OPS = 10 runs

so

offensive wise I think

BC: .254/.298/.432/.731

6% BB rate
25% K rate
.178 ISO (30 2b, 25 HRs)
.300 BABIP

However, he did not start hitting for BABIP until 07. ZIPs thinks he'll finish the year with a .290 BABIP. They're also higher on his power (think .190 ISO) but other wise same basic BB and K percents. I think he could push 190 ISO though (30 HRs or 40 2b).

Pushing his ISO up with doubles gives .254/.298/.448/.747, with HRs .259/.303/.462/.765

Those power, with .290 BABIP:
30 HRs: .252/.297/.455/.752
40 doubles: .247/.292/.442/.734

Original power I said before, .290 BABIP:
.247/.292/.426/.718

So, overall, I think we're talking around a .730 OPS

So

+20 runs (as high as it is, I think likely): .810 OPS
+15 runs (probalby more what to expect): .790 OPS
+10 runs (worst case scenerio): .770 OPS

For cousins I currently have him at (not for next year but more or less what he is in his career)

.251/.311/.411/.722

8% BB
24% K
.161 ISO (30 2b, 20 hr)
.300 BABIP

But I think of note is:

http://soflamarlins.com/showthread.php?t=267

Where I think project a .761 OPS against RHP

But I think Cousins is probably +15 runs (+60), but should expect +10 runs (+40), so basically 5 runs under BC.

FWIW they should also add a couple runs on the base paths but nothing ground breaking.

But having a Cousins/Carroll paltoon that Wanks said wouldn't be the worst. Give Cousins like 65% RHP, Carroll 35% against RHP, and Carroll 100% LHP starts. Just depends who else we have. i.e. are we talking about when stanton is up, or are we talking next year where that'd require keeping cody or hermida.

[lou]

Just in general. No real time frame. The real question mark for writing the longterm lineup is Logan. 1B or LF? If it's LF, who the fuck cares and we have sweet backup outfielders with a little pop and amazing D. But if Gaby is shifted to 3B to place hold for Domino (or simply put on the bench to be Willie Aybarish), Cousins/Carroll/Petersen is probably what we are looking at unless they spend FA dollars.

But I think the general point is, even the low range adjusted-defense-.770 OPS, is more than adequate for a corner OF starter (club controlled that is) if we have a solid team around them. This D is pretty encouraging if it ends up being this way. I'm sure these guys can hit low 700 OPS when all is said and done, especially when we splits out RHP/LHP.

And Raynor keeps finding new ways to make me hate him. I hope he isn't EB 2.0 and they just send him out there and hope he magically turns into Juan Pierre circa 2003.

[nny]

I know there's already a crowded OF in AA but with his lack of playing time in the OF I wonder if the FO has given up on that.

I mean, with his numbers, if they really wanted to give him LF time they could send him to NOLA.

Then again this is the same FO that played Coghlan in LF for one game then made him the MLB LF starter.

I also really think a platoon of Carroll/Cousins in LF, Maybin in CF, and Stanton and RF would be amazing. I'd actually prefer Stanton in LF and the others in RF but it's also Mike-Fucking-Stanton so you keep him in RF. If you platoon them, I think .760 base OPS out of them could be around what to expect. At +15 runs defense, and plus 3 runs BR, we're then talking about a .830 OPS which is really good.
--------------------

And Raynor keeps finding new ways to make me hate him. I hope he isn't EB 2.0 and they just send him out there and hope he magically turns into Juan Pierre circa 2003.

Since they've never talked him him I'm not scared of it thankfully.

But speaking of fast white guys

Kevin Mattison has become interesting to me

real good defense, real good br.

Very possible he could be plus 10 runs on both CF defense and on the base paths, for total of 20 runs.

However, he's 23 in greensboro...with a mid 700 OPS lol so he's far from being any actually kind of real spec. bad babip, high K rates, is hitting HRs! but since when is hitting HRs in greensboro at 23 years old impressive?! But when you can add 20 runs with your legs, if his bat ever figures it out he could be valuable. Just something I'm personally keeping an eye on, and because everybody already knows every other player that has one thing going for them but I've never seen him brought up.

[lou]

I would heavily lean to 1B with Logan too, but as you said. We've seen them do crazy things with Coghlan so who knows.

Have to think about service time with brett a little bit though. 1.029 entering the year. 15 second research tells me about 75 more days this year so far, and he'll be up all of September minimum, so we're looking at give or take an extra 110-120 days. He'll start 2010 with let's say 1.145 service time. Assuming he's up nonstop in 2010,

that's a Super 2 in 2011.

Can't imagine him costing a lot, but why should they pay him $1 million with a pretty solid OF depth. He's going to have to be really good (.775 ops, killer defense?), for them to pay him to be a 50% of the time starter along with a Cousins or Petersen. Have to see how it plays out, but I think the real hopes for the organization internally lie with Cousins or Petersen figuring it out.