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**lou** · 08-02-2009, 10:55 PM

I'm pretty sure you've done this, or thought really hard about it at a minimum, but can you quantify Cousins a bit? i.e., let's give him + 10, 15, 20, etc, however you want to spread it for a low-mid-awesome projection of his defensive ability. What level of offense is needed for him to be an average and above average producer?

I'm just curious. Because if he comes up and hits like, .260/.320/.425, is that going to be better than an average defense, .280/.350/.450 hitter? Where's the production break? I guess this can go for Carroll also.

**Ramp** · 08-02-2009, 11:03 PM

Brett Carroll is so for me

**nny** · 08-02-2009, 11:17 PM

From what I've seen

per 650 PA

40 points of OPS = 10 runs

so

offensive wise I think

BC: .254/.298/.432/.731

6% BB rate
25% K rate
.178 ISO (30 2b, 25 HRs)
.300 BABIP

However, he did not start hitting for BABIP until 07. ZIPs thinks he'll finish the year with a .290 BABIP. They're also higher on his power (think .190 ISO) but other wise same basic BB and K percents. I think he could push 190 ISO though (30 HRs or 40 2b).

Pushing his ISO up with doubles gives .254/.298/.448/.747, with HRs .259/.303/.462/.765

Those power, with .290 BABIP:
30 HRs: .252/.297/.455/.752
40 doubles: .247/.292/.442/.734

Original power I said before, .290 BABIP:
.247/.292/.426/.718

So, overall, I think we're talking around a .730 OPS

So

+20 runs (as high as it is, I think likely): .810 OPS
+15 runs (probalby more what to expect): .790 OPS
+10 runs (worst case scenerio): .770 OPS

For cousins I currently have him at (not for next year but more or less what he is in his career)

.251/.311/.411/.722

8% BB
24% K
.161 ISO (30 2b, 20 hr)
.300 BABIP

But I think of note is:

http://soflamarlins.com/showthread.php?t=267

Where I think project a .761 OPS against RHP

But I think Cousins is probably +15 runs (+60), but should expect +10 runs (+40), so basically 5 runs under BC.

FWIW they should also add a couple runs on the base paths but nothing ground breaking.

But having a Cousins/Carroll paltoon that Wanks said wouldn't be the worst. Give Cousins like 65% RHP, Carroll 35% against RHP, and Carroll 100% LHP starts. Just depends who else we have. i.e. are we talking about when stanton is up, or are we talking next year where that'd require keeping cody or hermida.

**lou** · 08-02-2009, 11:35 PM

Just in general. No real time frame. The real question mark for writing the longterm lineup is Logan. 1B or LF? If it's LF, who the fuck cares and we have sweet backup outfielders with a little pop and amazing D. But if Gaby is shifted to 3B to place hold for Domino (or simply put on the bench to be Willie Aybarish), Cousins/Carroll/Petersen is probably what we are looking at unless they spend FA dollars.

But I think the general point is, even the low range adjusted-defense-.770 OPS, is more than adequate for a corner OF starter (club controlled that is) if we have a solid team around them. This D is pretty encouraging if it ends up being this way. I'm sure these guys can hit low 700 OPS when all is said and done, especially when we splits out RHP/LHP.

And Raynor keeps finding new ways to make me hate him. I hope he isn't EB 2.0 and they just send him out there and hope he magically turns into Juan Pierre circa 2003.

**nny** · 08-02-2009, 11:46 PM

I know there's already a crowded OF in AA but with his lack of playing time in the OF I wonder if the FO has given up on that.

I mean, with his numbers, if they really wanted to give him LF time they could send him to NOLA.

Then again this is the same FO that played Coghlan in LF for one game then made him the MLB LF starter.

I also really think a platoon of Carroll/Cousins in LF, Maybin in CF, and Stanton and RF would be amazing. I'd actually prefer Stanton in LF and the others in RF but it's also Mike-Fucking-Stanton so you keep him in RF. If you platoon them, I think .760 base OPS out of them could be around what to expect. At +15 runs defense, and plus 3 runs BR, we're then talking about a .830 OPS which is really good.
--------------------

Originally posted by lou View Post

And Raynor keeps finding new ways to make me hate him. I hope he isn't EB 2.0 and they just send him out there and hope he magically turns into Juan Pierre circa 2003.

Since they've never talked him him I'm not scared of it thankfully.

But speaking of fast white guys

Kevin Mattison has become interesting to me

real good defense, real good br.

Very possible he could be plus 10 runs on both CF defense and on the base paths, for total of 20 runs.

However, he's 23 in greensboro...with a mid 700 OPS lol

so he's far from being any actually kind of real spec. bad babip, high K rates, is hitting HRs! but since when is hitting HRs in greensboro at 23 years old impressive?! But when you can add 20 runs with your legs, if his bat ever figures it out he could be valuable. Just something I'm personally keeping an eye on, and because everybody already knows every other player that has one thing going for them but I've never seen him brought up.

**lou** · 08-02-2009, 11:56 PM

I would heavily lean to 1B with Logan too, but as you said. We've seen them do crazy things with Coghlan so who knows.

Have to think about service time with brett a little bit though. 1.029 entering the year. 15 second research tells me about 75 more days this year so far, and he'll be up all of September minimum, so we're looking at give or take an extra 110-120 days. He'll start 2010 with let's say 1.145 service time. Assuming he's up nonstop in 2010,

that's a Super 2 in 2011.

Can't imagine him costing a lot, but why should they pay him $1 million with a pretty solid OF depth. He's going to have to be really good (.775 ops, killer defense?), for them to pay him to be a 50% of the time starter along with a Cousins or Petersen. Have to see how it plays out, but I think the real hopes for the organization internally lie with Cousins or Petersen figuring it out.

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