What's Your Definition of a #1, #2, Etc.

[nny]

Curious

I generally go with

sub-3.50 ERA = #1
3.50-4.00 = #2
4.00-4.30 = #3
4.30-4.70 = #4
4.70+=#5

With 4.30 being basically the average ERA

[Jewbility]

I base it on many factors, ERA weighing heavily.

[CrimsonCane]

WHIP:

#1: < 1.20
#2: 1.20 - 1.30
#3: 1.30 - 1.40
#4: > 1.40

[nny]

WHIP:

#1: < 1.20
#2: 1.20 - 1.30
#3: 1.30 - 1.40
#4: > 1.40

I've come to dislike WHIP as a stat. It's the equivalent of only looking at OBP for a hitter while completely ignoring SLG.

I mean, far from bad, you have a good WHIP then you are a good pitcher, but not something to use in a vacuum.

[PitchingWinsGames]

In this case, though.... and because of WHIP's strong correlation with ERA, I think it works just fine

[emkayseven]

I can't quantify it with any statistics because I think every stat ends up being super fluky at some point. It's totally subjective for me, so I wrote down Marlins players and leaguewide players that fit these descriptions in my mind.

A number one is a guy that I know has the stuff and demeanor to, and past history of, keeping the team in every game. He's the guy I think could win 30 games if he always got decent run support. Not every team has one. I feel confident 100% of the time when the #1 is on the mound. Josh Johnson. 90s Kevin Brown. You know who else in baseball fits here.

A number two is a guy who has solid stuff* and generally pitches extremely well and keeps the team in the game but is prone to unraveling every now and then which leads to a few losses. (*His stuff might not be the best or overpowering, but he finds ways to win.) I still feel confident 100% of the time the #2 starts the game, but I'm a little wary. Your #2 is usually a guy you think could be a solid #1 if he ever got his shit straight and was consistent all the time and/or didn't get injured. Nolasco is a #2 to me and a perfect reason why I don't use statistics to quantify this. Josh Beckett (except in the postseason, where he's a #1) is a good example of the type that just needs to take that next step to be a #1. I think John Lackey is a #2.

A number 3 has solid stuff and shows flashes of brilliance every now and then. You feel like you can win if your offense puts up 4 or more runs and he doesn't get into a rut at any point in the game. Your confidence in the win is usually based on the matchup and how the hitters have been, but you're generally confident ~70% of the time. Brad Penny. Ted Lilly.

A number 4 is a hit or miss guy. He's the guy that at the end of the year has double digit wins and loses and a W% close to .500 with an ERA in the 4's. You know that sometimes you'll get a really solid outing out of him, and sometimes he'll be awful. To me, the perfect number 4 is an innings eater because he's the guy you don't feel the need to protect his arm because he doesn't have super solid stuff or the potential to become a #1-3 and because he could save your bullpen for when the #5 pitches. Think Livan Hernandez, 1998-2008. Steve Trachsel always epitomized a #4 in my mind.

And a number 5 is a guy that doesn't hurt you. Probably should give you an ERA around 5. You know these guys.

[Swifty]

For me, that true #1 brings strong K/9 too.

Just generally, I think what sets a #1 apart from everyone else is that not only does he keep runners off base, but he can take over a game by himself and just flat out dominate the other team's offense. Thus, I see WHIP and K/9 as probably the two I'd most like in terms of simple stats. I'm sure there's something crazy out there that brings the two together, but I don't know it. I do think there's more to this than just WHIP and K/9, like HR's allowed (continuing to feed into the "dominate the game" category) and on the periphery ERA, but for me, I think it probably boils down to WHIP and K/9 as those others are on the periphery.

For me, I think a true #1 has a WHIP below 1.2 (as CC shows above) and a K/9 around 8.5 or greater plus the solid peripheral stuff, like a low homer total. Basically, I just want a #1 to take the other team's offense out of it's comfort zone, and striking guys out and not allowing the long ball does that.

[PitchingWinsGames]

So, is Brandon Webb a #1 in your book?

Heck, Halladay's k/9 isn't even in the 8 range (thought it's been getting closer in recent years)

Obviously, these guys are ground ball pitchers, and I think that helps negate the need for k's, obviously, but still.