CJ Wilson: NY Post - Deal With Angels Complete

[Bobbob1313]

I don't know that it had a very good result

LD% went up quite a bit too

I'm just saying, just pointing at reduced K rate doesn't tell the whole story.

He actually did increase his home run prevention beyond just allowing fewer flyballs, as his HR/FB was a career low 9.5%.

There's at least something to be said for the fact that he went about things somewhat differently last year, even if it did ultimately result in the same thing at the end. It wasn't just "Gave up too many HRs" last year.
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We probably couldn't get much more than the Nationals got for Jason Marquis last year (which I thought they got a decent prospect in Zach Walters).

Marquis is four years older and was significantly worse than Nolasco has been in the years prior to being traded. I think they get more.

[HUGG]

I actually think we'll keep him anyway.

[jOOj]

That too, I understand the baseball people have said a lot of possible payroll limits but nothing is set in stone. If Jeff wants to invest in himself huge the next three years to set the foundation of breeding winners, so be it. The man is fearless, he wears salmon coloured polos for fuck sake. Let him spend his money and enjoy the ride.

[Metes]

I'm just saying, just pointing at reduced K rate doesn't tell the whole story.

He actually did increase his home run prevention beyond just allowing fewer flyballs, as his HR/FB was a career low 9.5%.

There's at least something to be said for the fact that he went about things somewhat differently last year, even if it did ultimately result in the same thing at the end. It wasn't just "Gave up too many HRs" last year.

You're not wrong, and I'm not making an argument as to why he can't bounce back next year. In the context of trading him, I'm bringing up points that will affect his trade value. A drop in K/9 of 2 plus a near-1mph drop in his fastball are going to be huge red flags for a team looking to give him 2/3 starter money over the next two year.

Also, his HR/FB should go down if his FB% went from 41% to 31%. Overall though, he did bring his HR/9 down quite a bit.

He can certainly bounce back, but teams aren't going to give up anything meaningful for his upside

[Bobbob1313]

Also, his HR/FB should go down if his FB% went from 41% to 31%.

Not necessarily. I'm sure you know, but HR/FB is a ratio of flyballs that become home runs, so it doesn't really have anything to do with the total number of flyballs allowed.

[Jay]

Not necessarily. I'm sure you know, but HR/FB is a ratio of flyballs that become home runs, so it doesn't really have anything to do with the total number of flyballs allowed.

Yeah, I would argue the ratio should remain relatively constant while the number of HR would decrease because of a lower number of possibilities.

[lou]

I really don't think a solid 3B prospect and some shit pitcher from our pile of shit minor league pitchers is gonna make the Angels want to pay Ricky Nolasco 22 million dollars the next 2 seasons while also giving us a really quality young outfielder.

Just scratch it off and move on.

Not that I think one bad deal means they will make another bad deal, but those guys took on Vernon Wells $80 million dollars for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera. That's a special kind of horrible.

[HUGG]

Didn't they fire their GM?

[Bobbob1313]

Hasn't their owner always been a meddler, though?

[Metes]

Not necessarily. I'm sure you know, but HR/FB is a ratio of flyballs that become home runs, so it doesn't really have anything to do with the total number of flyballs allowed.

Yes, I understand the mechanics of it. I'd posit that a pitching style change like that (10% swing in FB rate) would impact how many leave the yard. Either way, he brought his HRs down, and that's great. Still, he gave up a ton more hits and really struggled for it.

I want to think he'll improve on his LOB%, but his career numbers aren't great enough to point to bad luck.

[Erick]

Didn't they fire their GM?

Yes (hence my Tony Reagins reference).

[kusch]

Honestly if we pick up Wilson, is there a possibility our rotation could even come clos to Philadelphia's

[MiamiHomer]

JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
C.J. Wilson is at the Hilton Anatole meeting with both Angels and Marlins tonight and expected to make decision tonight or tomorrow


JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
If there is a $15m differential in offers between FL & LAA combined with no state income tax in FLA not sure Wilson can take that much less

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[Erick]

Honestly if we pick up Wilson, is there a possibility our rotation could even come clos to Philadelphia's

I think ours would be better, if healthy.

[Swifty]

Honestly if we pick up Wilson, is there a possibility our rotation could even come clos to Philadelphia's

Depends on JJ's health.