Sabermetrics

[DropkickAlex]

How much stock do you put into them? I visit another site a lot and they argue over who the better pitcher is and who are the top CFers in the game. They throw around Sabremetrics and basically whoever have the numbers in their favor they are the best of the best.

For example, the topic was Top 10 CFs in the game right now and people are voting for Franklin Gutierrez because of his UZR.

So what do you think? How much stock do you put into them and how much should? The arguments for RBIs being a useless stat is that it all depends on who the hitters are in front of you not the person hitting, so are RBIs really not that important when comparing hitters?

I personally think they are fun to look at and all but how someone can be worth a WAR of 5.6 is beyond me. How can someone calculate a win and especially .6 of one?

If this was brought up before my bad but it's just been on my mind lately.

[Miamarlin21]

I hate stats to be honest. Other than like AVG, HR, RBI, SB, ERA, WHIP I don't look at anything else.

I think you should be able to watch a kid and tell if he is a good player or not.

[CrimsonCane]

How much stock do you put into them? I visit another site a lot and they argue over who the better pitcher is and who are the top CFers in the game. They throw around Sabremetrics and basically whoever have the numbers in their favor they are the best of the best.

For example, the topic was Top 10 CFs in the game right now and people are voting for Franklin Gutierrez because of his UZR.

So what do you think? How much stock do you put into them and how much should? The arguments for RBIs being a useless stat is that it all depends on who the hitters are in front of you not the person hitting, so are RBIs really not that important when comparing hitters?

I personally think they are fun to look at and all but how someone can be worth a WAR of 5.6 is beyond me. How can someone calculate a win and especially .6 of one?

If this was brought up before my bad but it's just been on my mind lately.

There is a formula that allows you to determine the expected win percentage of a team based on the difference between the amount of runs allowed and runs scored by a team. It's called the pythagorean win percentage. It's typically very accurate and it'll often be very good in predicting which teams are "playing above their heads" and are in for a decline or, conversely, which teams are bound to rebound.

Now, if you breakdown the pythagorean win percentage formula, you can see that if a team wants to increase their win total by a single win, they need approximately 10 more runs. Therefore, the rule of thumb is basically 10 runs = 1 win.

There are other stats that you can use to determine how many runs a particular batter is worth. (VORP being one of them) WAR is roughly the sum of VORP (how many runs the player is worth through his bat) and a defensive metric (how much the player is worth through his defense) and then that sum is divided by 10. It's a purely derivative stat (it's based entirely on values from other potentially more well known statistics).

So, 0.6 of a win is basically 6 runs.

[emkayseven]

I do definitely put stock into just about everything but defensive metrics. I just don't think they've hit on a defensive metric I like yet, though I'm partial to John Dewan's +/- even though most people seem to think it's antiquated already

[Bobbob1313]

I tend to look at both UZR and +/- to get a more complete picture for defense.

[DropkickAlex]

Thanks guys, and Crimson thanks for the breakdown. +/-, would that be the runs saved stat?

[emkayseven]

http://www.fieldingbible.com/

Check out Plus/Minus on the nav bar

[DropkickAlex]

That's pretty cool. It would be nice if baseball could adopt a system as simple as +/- and it be generally accepted.

[wanks1212]

I hate stats to be honest. Other than like AVG, HR, RBI, SB, ERA, WHIP I don't look at anything else.

I think you should be able to watch a kid and tell if he is a good player or not.

Average and RBIs? Seriously?

[Fritz]

Joe Morgan, Jr.

[Ramp]

I hate stats to be honest. Other than like AVG, HR, RBI, SB, ERA, WHIP I don't look at anything else.

I think you should be able to watch a kid and tell if he is a good player or not.

oy vey....

anyway, stats are like a bikini, what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital

I trust my eyes as much as the next guy, but stats outside of the fantasy ones above are absolutely crucial when discussing players

[Bobbob1313]

I trust my eyes to a point, but if there's a large discrepancy between my eyes and the stats, I'll go with the stats. I trust them a lot more. They paint a far more complete picture. Anyone who claims to just trust their eyes is a damn fool.

I'm a big fan of the sabermetrics. They give an opportunity for a more nuanced understanding of the game if you know what you are doing.

[MiamiHomer]

Stats never forget.

[Ramp]

but they do forgive