May Game Thread

[fish16]

Excepf hasn't had 4 good to great starts. He has had 2 really good starts, and the rest have been really bad.

Just to belay the point, I took out his 2 best and 2 worst starts. Everything in between amounts to 3 K/9, more BBs than Ks, an ERA in the mid 4s, and a FIP that is almost 7. Even with those 2 great starts, he is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this year.

And again, I never said he was bad in the minors. Just that he was never particularly good. And he not very good in his call up last year.

He almost certainly needs to move to the pen even if Urena is traded. He is not an MLB caliber starting pitcher.

why are you taking starts out of an 11 game sample size? Also, a raw 22 year old in the PCL putting up a sub 4 ERA and 1.26 WHIP is pretty damn good. No one is saying his walk and K rates are good where they are, but his hard hit ball% and soft hit ball % indicate that even a moderate improvement in walk and K rates would make him into a mid rotation guy, and an improvement in both would make him a potential top of the rotation guy.

[Todd]

Because he was just a so so pitcher in the minors and wasn't good in his callup last year?

The sample size isn't really that relevant. The 2 good starts are the outlier statistical anomalies for him, not the other way around.

I think he will be good in the majors as a reliever. But his stuff isn't very good outside of his fastball.

[fish16]

if you want to know what he usually is rather than what he is in the extremes, use his season numbers as a whole. stop picking and choosing which games count in your mind out of an already small 11 game sample. We all have seen what he can be. A guy who is dominant when he has control and a guy who is hard to watch when he doesnt. IF, and it's a big IF, he can improv the walk and K rates he's a very big piece moving forward.

Also, you keep operating under the assumption that his minor league numbers were so so when that's flatly not the case. He has a 3.04 Xfip his first year in rookie ball, then a 3.26 x FIP his sceond year there, then a 3.19 xFIP in A ball, and then a 2.96 xFIP in the FSL, all before the age of 20. And then last year he more then held his own as a 22 year old all year in an extreme hitters league in AAA.

The kid is going to be 23 all year this year and has 4 more years of team control AFTER this year. You're just picking and choosing which stats fit your narrative of him not being a major league SP and then ignoring the fact that he's been incredibly young in just about every level he's been at relative to his competition. He's never going to be a guy who strikes out 9/9 IP, but he can be a very good SP with just moderate improvements in a few areas.

[Todd]

Looking at the entire season doesn't help your case. Again, even with the 2 good starts he has had he is one of the worst starters in baseball.

He belongs in the pen where he can more effectively use his one pitch.

[fish16]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/r...d=alcant000san

Here you can see for yourself the numbers he put up and his age relative to his competition. He has been young relative to competition at quite literally every single level he has pitched at, and he has more than held his own.

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Looking at the entire season doesn't help your case. Again, even with the 2 good starts he has had he is one of the worst starters in baseball.

He belongs in the pen where he can more effectively use his one pitch.

he's got a 4 ERA, and given his current control issues and the way he pitches to contact, no shit his xFIP is likely to be higher than most. As i already showed, he already has an elite ability to avoid hard contact and generate soft contact, and gaining experience and control will only make him more effective.

[Todd]

I have looked at his stats. Apparently being mediocre is holding your own. Let me ask you a question, do you think Zac Gallen is a top of the rotation guy? He is at the same age level/league as Alcantra was and is blowing what he dis there out of the water. I am going to guess no.

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Just admit his upside as a starter is more or less nonexistent and he should move to the pen and we can go about our day.

[fish16]

I have looked at his stats. Apparently being mediocre is holding your own. Let me ask you a question, do you think Zac Gallen is a top of the rotation guy? He is at the same age level/league as Alcantra was and is blowing what he dis there out of the water. I am going to guess no.

First off I think Zac Gallen has a great chance to be a #3 guy and all indications are scouts feel the same way too. Zac Gallen is also a year older than Alcantara was last year (i.e. Gallen is a month older than Sandy), was a college arm used to facing more experienced talent, as well as the fact that "stuff" plays a role in evaluating the future potential of a SP putting up numbers in the minors and Alcantara has much more electric stuff than Gallen if he can put it all together and improve the control even a little bit.

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Im not going to admit that because its not accurate. You're just picking and choosing which stats and which games you want to count as indicative of his future potential in an already small sample size while ignoring stats that are indicative of his potential like the fact that he at age 23 has the 4th best hard hit ball% in the entire league and is one of the best in the league at generating soft contact. Once again, no one is saying he is a great SP now, but he has everything necessary to be a solid mid rotation guy and possibly even more as he develops more control and continues to make adjustments as he gets older and he grows into his body more.

[Todd]

"Much more electric stuff". He has one fucking pitch that plays at the MLB level. There is nothing inherently wrong with that. Just another reason he belongs in the pen.

And for the record, Gallen was also better than Alcantra in the PCL last year. And in 2017.

[fish16]

"Much more electric stuff". He has one fucking pitch that plays at the MLB level. There is nothing inherently wrong with that. Just another reason he belongs in the pen.

And for the record, Gallen was also better than Alcantra in the PCL last year. And in 2017.

apparently it plays pretty fucking well considering, once again, that he has the 4th best hard hit ball% and one of the best soft hit ball% in the league. An improvement in K rate, or BB rate, or ideally a little of both, and he is a mid rotation guy at least, a significant improvement in one or both and he becomes a potential #2.

[Nick]

I have looked at his stats. Apparently being mediocre is holding your own. Let me ask you a question, do you think Zac Gallen is a top of the rotation guy? He is at the same age level/league as Alcantra was and is blowing what he dis there out of the water. I am going to guess no.

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Just admit his upside as a starter is more or less nonexistent and he should move to the pen and we can go about our day.

Gallen is a month older than Alcantara.

[Todd]

apparently it plays pretty fucking well considering, once again, that he has the 4th best hard hit ball% and one of the best soft hit ball% in the league. An improvement in K rate, or BB rate, or ideally a little of both, and he is a mid rotation guy at least, a significant improvement in one or both and he becomes a potential #2.

His walk rate actually has improved. He isn't a number 2 even with an increase in K rate. His ceiling is mediocre #5(not really. His ceiling is bullpen arm).

What I find to be probably just a happy coincidence, of the 31 guys with a better hard hit% than Alcantra, like 28 of them are relievers.

[fish16]

His walk rate actually has improved. He isn't a number 2 even with an increase in K rate. His ceiling is mediocre #5(not really. His ceiling is bullpen arm).

What I find to be probably just a happy coincidence, of the 31 guys with a better hard hit% than Alcantra, like 28 of them are relievers.

ok, youre entitled to your opinion, this conversation has pretty much covered everything. I think its absolutely fucking absurd though to say his ceiling is a mediocre #5 though.

[Todd]

And for the record fish16, I completely realize this is all just a byproduct of you almost jerking off to every player the Marlins got back in the firesale. Mostly because I got bored at work and went back and reread those threads. So now you are doing it in a different way, trying to justify them playing poorly.

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ok, youre entitled to your opinion, this conversation has pretty much covered everything. I think its absolutely fucking absurd though to say his ceiling is a mediocre #5 though.

Why though? His peripherals are awful. He doesn't strike anyone out. He walks a ton of people. He was nothing special in the minors. He wasn't good during his call up last year. He has one halfway decent pitch. And most scouting reports said he was most likely going to end up in the pen.

Sandy Alcantra inst even the Marlins first Sandy Alcantra. They had an eeriely similar guy 10 to 15 years ago. Name escapes me. Had an insane fastball but really nothing else. Traded to...I want to say Seattle.

[fish16]

Except for the fact that I actually immediately criticized the Ozuna trade because I thought they went with potential over the better pitcher and OF in Flaherty and either Bader or O'Neill.

[Todd]

As did I. Kind of. Not Flaherty though. I dont know if you can call getting Sierra going for potential, however. His cieling is 4th outfielder whose only real contribution is defense.

I think that was more of a "Marlins saw what he did during his brief callup and didn't actually read any scouting reports or look at his stats".