May Game Thread

[Todd]

File this under, trade no pitchers except Urena and Romo

At this point, I think you even hold onto Conley even if he magically turns good for a month just to hope he gets his shit together

I think the best hope is to bundle them together for a team a bit short in the rotation and a bit short in the pen at the deadline. I dont think you will get an amazing package for them separate but still(using the Yankees as a baseline, Urena/Romo for Clarke Schmidt, Garrett Whitlock, Nolan Martinez, and Hoy Jun Park for example).

[tjfla]

File this under, trade no pitchers except Urena and Romo

At this point, I think you even hold onto Conley even if he magically turns good for a month just to hope he gets his shit together

Just remember they could have gotten solid packages for Steck,Conley and Bearclaw last deadline but decided they needed to get what Brad Hand brought for any of them!!

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Don's bullpen management the last couple innings was completely inexplicable.

This is very true!! He likes 1 or 2 guys then only uses them-all of our guys but Romo and Brice can be sent down

[lou]

Just remember they could have gotten solid packages for Steck,Conley and Bearclaw last deadline but decided they needed to get what Brad Hand brought for any of them!!

Could they have? I don't remember seeing anything firm (maybe the league knows they are average RP which is what I suspect), and regardless, that doesn't annoy me as much as others here as they all had/have years of control. It would have been nice to move one/all, but this still doesn't move the dial much even if they did make a move or two.

As for now, they have no one pitching like those guys in June 2018 so it's a moot point.

You trade Urena, Romo, Castro, Walker, and Rojas for BPA and that's it. This isn't rocket science.

[fish16]

https://theathletic.com/990262/2019/...g-development/


Great athletic article if youre a subscriber on how the astros develop pitching talent with a higher level of understanding of how to do so. Hope to see innovation and forward thinking like this out of the marlins. It mentions how they led 4 different leagues last year in K/9 and are first in 2 other leagues this year. Not sure where we fall in that but I cant imagine many teams are better in that category than the marlins in the FSL. That number, WHIP, and k/bb are the 3 biggest numbers (aside from age obviously) that I look to to evaluate minor league SP talent. And we're doing great in all of those numbers with guys like Garrett, Halloway (although the k/bb ratio is bad), Dugger, Yamamoto, Gallen, etc. We're not only developing SP talent, we're developing SP talent that is actually capable of performing at the major league level as opposed to the previous regime where we would just go after names like Cosart and many others who were all names and no actual results or talent.

Now if we can just go hard after hitters in all 3 phases (IFA, draft, and free agency) for the next 2 years we are going to have something very interesting. They absolutely need to hit on the number 4 pick though. Good news is this is a great hitters draft at the top and a lot of them are college bats who could rise quickly, so reinforcements might not be quite as far off as they seem.

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Also, does anyone know who our scout would be that is scouting the california league? Cause he is doing a phenomenal job. We have bought low on several guys whose numbers in that league arent great but reflect an overall good prospect. Seems like there is a market inefficiency that we have exploited because teams seem to view players negatively from that league who put up poor numbers despite having really nice peripherals because that is such a hitters league. We did it with Pablo Lopez and Dugger and a few others whose ERA's and WHIP's were a little inflated but still had good peripheral numbers.

[Todd]

Still need quite a bit of pitching IMO.

I find people saying we have a surplus of young arms to be headscratching. I hope they save enough on the first two pocks to draft and sign like 15 to 20 prep pitchers in the draft.

I mean two of the Marlins current starters are literally the worst and 4th worst starters in the national league ffs.

[Nick]

Still need quite a bit of pitching IMO.

I find people saying we have a surplus of young arms to be headscratching. I hope they save enough on the first two pocks to draft and sign like 15 to 20 prep pitchers in the draft.

I mean two of the Marlins current starters are literally the worst and 4th worst starters in the national league ffs.

Based on what metric?

[fish16]

Still need quite a bit of pitching IMO.

I find people saying we have a surplus of young arms to be headscratching. I hope they save enough on the first two pocks to draft and sign like 15 to 20 prep pitchers in the draft.

I mean two of the Marlins current starters are literally the worst and 4th worst starters in the national league ffs.

they have a #2 and #3 already in the majors under team control for years in Lopez and Smith, the best pitcher in the PCL, a top 30 prospect in baseball and an ace type guy in sixto, and in the FSL they have 2 former first rounders having solid first full seasons in the minors, Edward Cabrera who is Urena 2.0, and another guy in holloway who also looks unhittable if he can bring down the walks, and then you have several other back end of the rotation guys who are having great years in Dugger and Yamamoto. And that's without mentioning one of our top 5 prospects being out most of the year in Neidert and Guzman still being a SP option for the time being.

That is without signing any free agents whatsoever despite the fact that we will have 0 long term contracts after next year which will enable us to go spend on a pitcher if we want to. and that's also not even mentioning Urena who is a very nice mid-back end rotation guy if we wanted to keep him for the next 2 years. They have enough pitching theortically. Obviously you have to wait and see if they work out, but they dont need to attack pitching significantly for the next 2 years. You evaluate the current crop and then maybe sign another guy in a few years if it makes sense. And I didnt even mention Richards or Alcantara, both of whom have proven they at the very least can hold their own at the back of a big league rotation.

They are fine with starting pitching for a few years until they evaluate this current crop of like 15 SP options, all of whom are already in Jupiter and higher.

[Todd]

It has actually changed a bit. Richards and Alcantra are last and second to last in xFIP. Alcantra is last in SIERA. Richards is 4th from the bottom and Alcantra 9th from the bottom in FIP.

[Nick]

It has actually changed a bit. Richards and Alcantra are last and second to last in xFIP. Alcantra is last in SIERA. Richards is 4th from the bottom and Alcantra 9th from the bottom in FIP.

A little misleading considering 87 pitchers are eligible and there are 30 teams, 5 starters each. Anyway, I see Richards as a future reliever, and I think a pretty effective one at that. Alcantara might be as well, but I still believe in his upside. He's holding his own in the majors right now, just needs to keep working, Mel Stottlemyre Jr. will earn his paycheck with him, because I truly believe there is a switch that can be flipped with this guy an adjustment to be made that could turn him into a special pitcher. We'll see if it happens. The good part of where the team is right now, is he's got at least 2 full years in the majors to figure it out.

[fish16]

A little misleading considering 87 pitchers are eligible and there are 30 teams, 5 starters each. Anyway, I see Richards as a future reliever, and I think a pretty effective one at that. Alcantara might be as well, but I still believe in his upside. He's holding his own in the majors right now, just needs to keep working, Mel Stottlemyre Jr. will earn his paycheck with him, because I truly believe there is a switch that can be flipped with this guy an adjustment to be made that could turn him into a special pitcher. We'll see if it happens. The good part of where the team is right now, is he's got at least 2 full years in the majors to figure it out.

Completely agree on Richards. I look forward to having some SP's come up cause I think his changeup out of the bullpen could make him a phenomenal set up guy capable of going multiple innings. I'd also be very interested to see how much faster he can throw his FB if he comes out of the bullpen. That changeup along with a mid 90's FB rather than a low 90's fastball could be dangerous out of the bullpen.

[Todd]

I fail to see the upside some see in Alcantra. I mean he wasn't even particularly good in the minors and he more or less only has one pitch and its a flat(albeit high velocity) fastball. Hes not even "holding his own". He has been comically bad outside of 2 starts.

[fish16]

I fail to see the upside some see in Alcantra. I mean he wasn't even particularly good in the minors and he more or less only has one pitch and its a flat(albeit high velocity) fastball. Hes not even "holding his own". He has been comically bad outside of 2 starts.

He hasn't been comically bad outside of 2 starts, and its incredibly disingenuous to take out just the starts he's been phenomenal in when its already a small sample of 11 games. I could also say he has been really good if you just take out his 2-3 worst starts. The K rate needs to improve or the walk rate needs to decrease, but he has a really impressive ability to avoid hard contact, something that he has improved upon by nearly 6.5% over last year alone (from 35% to 29%). He is not a surefire rotation guy, but he's not a bum. He's likely a mid rotation guy if you factor in an even miniscule inevitable improvement in either the walk rate or K rate.

But to just take out his 2 best starts where he pitched a combined 17 scoreless innings with 14 k's and 1 walk when he's only made 11 starts this year is a pretty absurd way to try to make your point. There are plenty of ways you can be skeptical about his future without that kind of picking and choosing which games you want to include from an already small sample size.

Also, to say he wasn't particularly good in the minors is also not accurate. He's not a dominant minor league pitcher, but last year at age 22 for the entire year in AAA he pitched to the tune of a 3.89 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in a great hitters league. As of right now he is a decent back end rotation guy at a very young age. With an improvement in his K rate, walk rate, or both as he gains experience, he is a legitimate mid rotation guy with the stuff to be more if he really puts everything together.

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After checking the numbers, Alcantara is 4th among starters in hard hit % according to fangraphs. And he's 3rd best in the league at soft hit %.

[Nick]

I fail to see the upside some see in Alcantra. I mean he wasn't even particularly good in the minors and he more or less only has one pitch and its a flat(albeit high velocity) fastball. Hes not even "holding his own". He has been comically bad outside of 2 starts.

He's had 4 Good/Great starts and 7 Average/Bad starts. He's holding his own.

Lou's suggestion of a 6-man rotation makes so much sense once we deal Urena. Have Gallen, Richards and Hernandez have there own little internal competition. Top 2 guys are in the 2020 rotation, the other guy gets permanently moved to reliever.

Next year you have: Smith/Lopez/Alcantara/Gallen/Richards/Hernandez with one going to the pen.
In AAA 2020: Sixto/Neidert/Yamamoto/Poteet/Dugger

You have Sixto and Neidert potentially pushing 2 of those guys out in 2021 and who knows maybe a Gallen-like breakout from Yamamoto/Poteet/Dugger. 11 guys, if you can get 4 starters and 4 relievers out of that group for 2021 we could be in business. You also have Jorge Guzman in the mix even though I don't love him. Supplement it with a big-time FA Starter, a closer and a lefty specialist or two and we should be in business.

[fish16]

He's had 4 Good/Great starts and 7 Average/Bad starts. He's holding his own.

Lou's suggestion of a 6-man rotation makes so much sense once we deal Urena. Have Gallen, Richards and Hernandez have there own little internal competition. Top 2 guys are in the 2020 rotation, the other guy gets permanently moved to reliever.

Next year you have: Smith/Lopez/Alcantara/Gallen/Richards/Hernandez with one going to the pen.
In AAA 2020: Sixto/Neidert/Yamamoto/Poteet/Dugger

You have Sixto and Neidert potentially pushing 2 of those guys out in 2021 and who knows maybe a Gallen-like breakout from Yamamoto/Poteet/Dugger. 11 guys, if you can get 4 starters and 4 relievers out of that group for 2021 we could be in business. You also have Jorge Guzman in the mix even though I don't love him. Supplement it with a big-time FA Starter, a closer and a lefty specialist or two and we should be in business.

Exactly, no one is saying we have 5 surefire great SP's for a future rotation, we are saying we have more than enough good and intriguing options that we need to evaluate over the next 2-3 years as well as money to spend if need be that we need to be all over hitters in the draft, IFA, and free agency.

We literally have 17 options that can be in the rotation by 2021 realistically- Urena, Lopez, Alcantara, Richards, Smith, Neidert, Gallen, Eliser, Yamamoto, Guzman, Dugger, Halloway, Garrett, Rogers, Stewart, Cabrera, and Sixto. We have more than enough guys for the next few years to evaluate.

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With that said, im fine with drafting a few high school guys in the middle rounds of the draft that can help the lower levels and supplement some of these guys in the coming years so that when we promote these guys we arent left like the cubs or red sox who promoted their guys and have very little left in their system.

[Todd]

Excepf hasn't had 4 good to great starts. He has had 2 really good starts, and the rest have been really bad.

Just to belay the point, I took out his 2 best and 2 worst starts. Everything in between amounts to 3 K/9, more BBs than Ks, an ERA in the mid 4s, and a FIP that is almost 7. Even with those 2 great starts, he is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this year.

And again, I never said he was bad in the minors. Just that he was never particularly good. And he not very good in his call up last year.

He almost certainly needs to move to the pen even if Urena is traded. He is not an MLB caliber starting pitcher.