May Game Thread

[rmc523]

This team isn’t mostly losing close games as someone mentioned to be fair. This team is historically bad is what it is. I never thought I’d say this, but I’m about as indifferent as I can possibly be toward a team I grew up rooting for. I basically don’t care and watch the Rays whenever I feel like watching a baseball game. There’s nothing remotely exciting about this franchise other than the development of Caleb Smith who will probably be traded for a bag of peanuts even though Joe Frisaro says there’s no chance of that happening. Speaking of Joe Frisaro, we also have the worst beat writer in Major League Baseball. And our announcers are also the worst.

Eh a lot of the games early on were close losses and a few since.

Agree about Frisaro and the announcers. Rich and Tommy at least made the losing entertaining. The current pairing is just blah.

[gustavopim]

This team isn’t mostly losing close games as someone mentioned to be fair. This team is historically bad is what it is. I never thought I’d say this, but I’m about as indifferent as I can possibly be toward a team I grew up rooting for. I basically don’t care and watch the Rays whenever I feel like watching a baseball game. There’s nothing remotely exciting about this franchise other than the development of Caleb Smith who will probably be traded for a bag of peanuts even though Joe Frisaro says there’s no chance of that happening. Speaking of Joe Frisaro, we also have the worst beat writer in Major League Baseball. And our announcers are also the worst.

I read it somewhere that the Marlins are 15th in runs allowed this year. Not that bad.

Close games yeah. Last 8 games

Sunday, May 5 MIA 1 X 3 ATL
34 Monday, May 6 MIA 6 @ 5 CHC
35 Tuesday, May 7 MIA 2 @ 5 CHC
36 Wednesday, May 8 MIA 2 @ 3 CHC
37 Thursday, May 9 MIA 1 @ 4 CHC
38 Friday, May 10 MIA 2 @ 11 NYM
39 Saturday, May 11 MIA 1 @ 4 NYM
40 Tuesday, May 14 MIA 0 X 4 TBR
41 Wednesday, May 15 MIA 0 X 1 TBR

Besides that 11 to 2 loss to the Mets, all our games were by 4 runs or less. I call those close games. Beginning of the year we even had more games that were close.

We suck, but we have a lot of close games. That's what bothers me the most. We can't catch a break too. See Castro's hit up the middle yesterday.

[Nick]

Our pythagorean record (what our record should be based on run differential) is 10-31 which matches our actual record. So we've been just as bad as our record indicates so far.

[Maddawg]

[QUOTE=gustavopim;399060]

100%.....if they had just been able to analyze that spending a few more $$$ for 2 bats would have helped them soooooo very much, not only ON the field but OFF the field, because at this point you are losing support even among casual fans. And in 2 years you are supposedly going to spend money in Free Agency (this is what I've been hearing for a while now), and even that is not going to make people flock to the stadium, even if they start winning some games. This is not Chicago, where the Cubs could put piles of manure on the field and still sellout most of the time because the Cubs and Wrigley Field are "an experience" the franchise has built no loyalty with most residents in So Fla, but has put into their minds that you get a good player well when is he going to be traded. It makes people continue to distrust the franchise because they don't see that same thing happening with other teams - it gets to a point where people turn it off and just smirk and roll their eyes at the Marlins. I even have had people here in Miami many times say things like "aren't you embarrassed to be wearing a Marlins shirt or cap ?"

I keep hearing that "who cares about the record this year". Well the Miami market is not like the Chicago, Houston, Kansas City, Phoenix or Denver markets....they have had a lot of winning seasons and the people in those places trust their franchises. Here there is a DEEP DISTRUST of the franchise and having a season like this is doing inherently more damage to their future than I think a lot of people of this board realize.

Bottom line is, they might be trying to build a winning franchise on the field, but they are not winning anyone in the community over....and you can build a winning team on the field and yes people will show up for playoffs, but a winning franchise is more than that, much more deeper than that. That's what is STILL missing, that true connection to the locals. Catering to ethnic identity is also a losing way to build community interest...take race and ethnicity out of the rebuild completely. You have to be inclusive in order to succeed...there are many ways to have done this rebranding without playing the race card. I think it was stupid and will hurt them more than help them.

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I honestly think we didn't even had to add a couple of FA players. If only we would've kept Dietric and Bour I would be happy. I'd rather see DD in LF or RF than Herrera and Grandy. Same thing at 3B with Berti. Our team would be better, those two were happy to be in Miami. It's really hard to go to games or even watch on TV when we can't score runs.

Also, let some dudes figure it out at MLB. Dean, Riddle etc.

I agree 100%....they have made some really silly mistakes and then are reluctant to admit it (Lewis Brinson last year should have gone down to AAA or even AA for the rest of the season by the end of June).

Jeter's ego and it will cost him unless he can start to control it, but it is tough to learn that when people have been kissing your ass with everything you do, for over 25 years.

[Maddawg]

I agree. I think there's an optics component here that they've been overlooking completely. That's why, while a rebuild is/was likely needed, I advocated keeping most of the guys we had (or minimizing the rebuild to everyone but JT and Yelich barring "we're giving you half our farm system" type of overpays). The optics of what it represented. And I know you can't run things based on public opinion, but this fanbase has been raked over the coals, beaten, buried, and dug back up to be beaten again. People saw hope with a new owner group coming in - especially one led by Jeter - as hopeful and optimistic, only for them to not only pull "same old Marlins" moves with trading everyone away, but to also have PR blunder after blunder (firing the scout in the hospital, throwing out Conine, Dawson, etc, only to crawl back with pathetic "we're sorry" offers, etc) right off the bat.

I'm not here to rehash or restart the "2 pitchers away" vs. rebuild argument, and maybe - hopefully - it works out in the long run and it does turn into a consistent winner; I'm just pointing out that the scorched earth approach completely ignored the abuse this fanbase has taken, and doubled down on it, at least in the short term.

I sometimes wonder why I'm a fan as well. I know last year I basically checked out completely. I've been more into it this year despite the team being worse, I guess at least there are a few glimmers of bright spots on the horizon. The average/casual fan wrote the team off years ago, though.

So much of this is 100% on point. The scorched earth approach was NOT the way to go. If you didn't analyze the team and it's fanbase then why did you plunk down $1.2 billion ? It's looking more and more this was more rash than a well thought out ownership group. They went in with a bid and just wanted to get their hands on a franchise. Still, they had MONTHS after winning the bid to do all the research into the fanbase they should have needed, but many of the mistakes they have made, show a lot of either arrogance on their part (I can believe this on Jeter's part) and sloppiness as well. If they thought that people would come back just because Loria was gone and they were new owners deserving loyalty "just because of Derek Jeter", they were extremely naive.

Look the rebuild needed to happen, but their approach was just completely wrong for this market, and attendance is so low not just because of their record but the way, as you, said, their HUGE PR blunders, it immediately caused hubris and people were turned off again. And you may have lost many for good that you could have gotten back but your arrogance cost you years maybe even a generation of regular casual fan attendance.

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As tough as it is to watch the team right now, I really don't think bringing in a couple of players in free agency this past off-season so that we finish with 70 wins instead of 50 this year would have a made a lick of difference to our fan base. The only thing that'll get people to show up is a playoff run. Even that won't be good enough, though. You need a playoff run, and then they'll need to be in the playoff mix for another 4-5 years after, for roots to start being set. That's the only way you'll build a season ticket holder base.

Huge mistakes were made when they took over the franchise. They're handling of the Stanton trade. Giving in to the Yelich trade demand immediately. Like others have said, a complete misunderstanding it seems to the history of the fanbase. But the bed is made and now you've gotta lay in it, I just wish they'd be a little more upfront about what is happening instead of making excuses and blaming anybody but themselves for the current struggles.

If Jeter just came out and said, "I know the product right now is not up to the standards we want for this organization and I know it's not up to the standards our fans expect either, but this is part of the process and what we're going through now will make us stronger when we are ready to compete for championships, which we expect to be sooner rather than later." That's all you gotta say, but instead we get Jeter playing dumb, and saying "we expected much more of this team" no you didn't, and firing folks that had nothing to do with putting together this embarrassment of a roster. It's a bad look.

BINGO !!!!

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Eh a lot of the games early on were close losses and a few since.

Agree about Frisaro and the announcers. Rich and Tommy at least made the losing entertaining. The current pairing is just blah.

I turn them down and listen to a minor league game or another MLB game audio

[fish16]

this is getting way ahead of ourselves but in the scenario where brinson ends up figuring it out and being a long term guy, how long do we have to keep him in the minors in order to get another year of him?

[lou]

The scorched earth approach was NOT the way to go. If you didn't analyze the team and it's fanbase then why did you plunk down $1.2 billion ? It's looking more and more this was more rash than a well thought out ownership group. They went in with a bid and just wanted to get their hands on a franchise. Still, they had MONTHS after winning the bid to do all the research into the fanbase they should have needed, but many of the mistakes they have made, show a lot of either arrogance on their part (I can believe this on Jeter's part) and sloppiness as well. If they thought that people would come back just because Loria was gone and they were new owners deserving loyalty "just because of Derek Jeter", they were extremely naive.

Look the rebuild needed to happen, but their approach was just completely wrong for this market, and attendance is so low not just because of their record but the way, as you, said, their HUGE PR blunders, it immediately caused hubris and people were turned off again. And you may have lost many for good that you could have gotten back but your arrogance cost you years maybe even a generation of regular casual fan attendance.

I disagree, with the exception of Yelich. Everything and everyone needed to go except him (5 years of control). This current team with Yelich and no Brinson, Monte, Diaz, and Yamamoto should be the squad.

Ignoring that, this is why they spend next year and get Rendon and Didi (or whoever, major players). That's what you do for the fanbase. They can't wait 2 more years. The books are clean, spend to earn trust. Do it a year early. Got to start somewhere.

[lou]

Just wanted to casually mention of qualified pitchers, xFIP:

Caleb - 9th. Very Awesome
Pablo - 37th. Awesome
Sandy - Second to last. Whomp Whomp
Richards - last

Gallen replaces one in a month, I think it's time to give E. Hernandez or Noesi as a shot as who cares and send the other two to AAA or the bullpen.

I'm totally satisfied with Smith and Lopez though, and if Gallen is as advertised, it's a really good situation when the dust settles.

Positives folks. Positives.

[Todd]

My thought is with the talent the Cardinals had in the system, Alcantara and Sierra is just a headscratcher, especially Alcantra as a centerpiece.

Should have been Bader/Weaver/Gallen or no deal.

[lou]

My thought is with the talent the Cardinals had in the system, Alcantara and Sierra is just a headscratcher, especially Alcantra as a centerpiece.

Should have been Bader/Weaver/Gallen or no deal.

I agree with you, but you're mentioning the wrong player.

Weaver coming off an excellent 60 IP in 2017 (1.3 WAR https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.asp...918&position=P) - That flips the script away from prospect valuation and if we're viewing him as a young 2-3 WAR player, his surplus value shoots up to $80-110 million. There was no chance in hell they would ever get him. This is like the Marlins trading Caleb Smith right now for someone like Ozuna for 2 years. No team will do that. At best, Ozuna was a $50 million surplus value asset. That's basically a 4 WAR player for 18-19. That's valuable, but that's getting two FV50 guys and a throw in level valuable.

If we want to criticize this, it's real easy to me. Looking at the Cards post 2017 prospect list - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-23-p...uis-cardinals/ - Jack Flaherty is screaming off the page to me as the same FV50 valuation of both Sandy and Sierra. They should have gotten him as a centerpiece as they needed a more sure thing SP at the time than Sandy or slap hitter like Sierra and he exhibited enough upside to make it work. All of us we're pretty much annoyed with this at the time, so this isn't any new information of course. Just saying, it's Flaherty, not Weaver.

But they picked Sandy. Maybe he's still going to be good though, and Gallen makes this whole thing irrelevant. But swapping Flaherty and Sandy was the move on paper for me. I can live with Sierra and Gallen as 2-3 in the deal getting him.

That being said, I think they have a really good shot of winning this trade. If Gallen turns into a 3/4, Sandy a plus reliever, and Sierra a good bench OF ala Dyson, they are going to be looking pretty here. The bar is pretty low for three guys to generate around $50 million in value.

Yelich they're fucked.

[Nick]

I don't mind getting Alcantara in that deal, we all knew he's high risk high reward. Coupling him with Sierra in that deal is what really bothered me, because to me he was just as high risk, and honestly pretty low reward. (backed up by the fact that he's in AA right now) If we had somehow gotten Carson Kelly in that deal instead of Sierra that would have made a world of difference. Would've completely changed our efforts to deal Realmuto last season.

[rmc523]

this is getting way ahead of ourselves but in the scenario where brinson ends up figuring it out and being a long term guy, how long do we have to keep him in the minors in order to get another year of him?

I found this in regards to MLB service time:

Each Major League regular season consists of 187 days (typically 183 days prior to 2018), and each day spent on the active roster or injured list earns a player one day of service time. Under the 2017-21 Collective Bargaining Agreement, any player who violates the drug program will no longer receive Major League Service during his suspension, unless his suspension is reduced by 20 or more games under the mitigation provision of the program.

A player is deemed to have reached "one year" of Major League service upon accruing 172 days in a given year. Upon reaching six years of Major League service, a player becomes eligible for free agency at the end of that season (unless he has already signed a contract extension that covers one or more of his free-agent seasons).

All players with at least three (but less than six) years of Major League service time become eligible for salary arbitration

I don't know if spring training applies to this or if it's just MLB games/off days. According to baseball reference, his service time in January was: Service Time (01/2019): 1.025 I don't know how to calculate it, though.

[Maddawg]

I disagree, with the exception of Yelich. Everything and everyone needed to go except him (5 years of control). This current team with Yelich and no Brinson, Monte, Diaz, and Yamamoto should be the squad.

Ignoring that, this is why they spend next year and get Rendon and Didi (or whoever, major players). That's what you do for the fanbase. They can't wait 2 more years. The books are clean, spend to earn trust. Do it a year early. Got to start somewhere.

I said the rebuild needed to happen, it's they were way too hasty to get rid of Yalich. Looks now like a really dumb trade....he plays like this for 3 or 4 more years it could be as bad or worse than the Miggy trade.

Begs the question, was Yelich holding back when he played for us ???

[lou]

I found this in regards to MLB service time:



I don't know if spring training applies to this or if it's just MLB games/off days. According to baseball reference, his service time in January was: Service Time (01/2019): 1.025 I don't know how to calculate it, though.

Pre 2019 - 1.025 days (thats 1 year, 25 days)
2019 - Approx .033 days
=1.058

Brinson can be up for approximately 114 more days.

Last day of the season is September 29.
September 29 days
August 31 days (60)
July 31 days (91)
June has 30 days, so working backwards it's 23 days,

So give/take a day or week (I'm not exactly sure when the bookends of service time are), June 7th is about when they get another year of service time for Brinson. Call it mid-June to be safe to account for an error.

If we want to take it further, call it second week of August and that deflects Super 2 status. Not that he is cranking real money in arbitration.

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I said the rebuild needed to happen, it's they were way too hasty to get rid of Yalich. Looks now like a really dumb trade....he plays like this for 3 or 4 more years it could be as bad or worse than the Miggy trade.

Begs the question, was Yelich holding back when he played for us ???

He was a 21 year old kid when he was called up and now he is a grown ass man.

He just grew into his power and moved to a top 10 hitter's park from a top 5 pitcher's park. We all knew it was coming, it's just even more power than we expected.

He's the only mistake for me. They aren't going to get close to the $150-200 million in surplus value he's going to bring the Brewers.

[rmc523]

I said the rebuild needed to happen, it's they were way too hasty to get rid of Yalich. Looks now like a really dumb trade....he plays like this for 3 or 4 more years it could be as bad or worse than the Miggy trade.

Begs the question, was Yelich holding back when he played for us ???

Nah, he wasn't holding back. Just growing into power and moving to a hitters park.

Pre 2019 - 1.025 days (thats 1 year, 25 days)
2019 - Approx .033 days
=1.058

Brinson can be up for approximately 114 more days.

Last day of the season is September 29.
September 29 days
August 31 days (60)
July 31 days (91)
June has 30 days, so working backwards it's 23 days,

So give/take a day or week (I'm not exactly sure when the bookends of service time are), June 7th is about when they get another year of service time for Brinson. Call it mid-June to be safe to account for an error.

If we want to take it further, call it second week of August and that deflects Super 2 status. Not that he is cranking real money in arbitration.

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He was a 21 year old kid when he was called up and now he is a grown ass man.

He just grew into his power and moved to a top 10 hitter's park from a top 5 pitcher's park. We all knew it was coming, it's just even more power than we expected.

He's the only mistake for me. They aren't going to get close to the $150-200 million in surplus value he's going to bring the Brewers.

Thanks for breaking that down. I said when they (finally) sent him down that I want to see him rake in AAA for at least a month before they even think about bringing him back up. That would solve service time issues on top of hopefully giving him some confidence back.

Joe Frisaro in his infinite wisdom looked at his last 10 games (in which he's hitting .344) and says "oh he's done enough, call him back up". When someone pointed out is that enough games, he responded with "yes, bc I wouldn't have said it if it weren't enough". Brilliant. Joe's an idiot.