May Game Thread

[emkayseven]

I'm not arguing that the hitting sucks, but I am arguing the suggestion that it's all-time bad hitting and going to lead to an all-time bad team.

Also, I don't really care if it does, because this year doesn't matter.

[Nick]

We'll see, I agree Maddawg's statement of them struggling to surpass 43 wins is ridiculous, but if he were to say they'll have a tough time passing the 1998 team that only won 54, as of right now I'd have to agree with him, and I think we all know how bad that 1998 team was.

[fish16]

“43 wins will be tough for them”

I LOL’d.

I really dont want to come off as optimistic because ill be the first to admit i completely underestimated how bad this lineup is and brinson, who was a major key this year was awful, but to repeat myself for the 100th time over the course of the last 2 years, it is really hard to put into words how hard it is to be 43 win bad. The lineup of that tiger team was similar to us hitting wise but slightly better because they at least had dimitri young, but our rotation is significantly better than theirs and their bullpen was about the same as ours.

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Jon Berti has the 3rd best OPS on the team of players with more than 38 ABs. He's terrible, yes, but so is everyone else. Roster management has not been the problem. Putting together a roster that is devoid of hitting talent is.

I disagree, it wouldnt make a huge difference in our win loss, but the decisions to have berti, galloway, and herrera up here for so long when it is clear that Ramirez and Dean are better options is just bad management. Maybe not as much berti because Ill admit i havent seen him a ton and his numbers arent horrendous, but the OF management has been pretty brutal. Not to mention the period where they had brinson in the big leagues but just as the 4th OF as if to purposely try to sabotage his development.

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I'm not arguing that the hitting sucks, but I am arguing the suggestion that it's all-time bad hitting and going to lead to an all-time bad team.

Also, I don't really care if it does, because this year doesn't matter.

True, we are all pretty much splitting hairs for something that in the end really doesnt matter. Is there a way to see what the league average OPS + is compared to ours and what some of the worst OPS + teams are of all time and how we compare.

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What are the service time implications depending on when we promote gallen? Cause he went 7 with just 1 ER and 9 k's and just 1 BB again tonight and is obviously ready. Alcantara is clearly struggling so its a matter of time unless he drastically improves soon but if there are service time implications I could easily see them justifying promoting Elieser instead. Riddle also should be up here and either playing everyday or at the very least platooning.

[Nick]

I disagree, it wouldnt make a huge difference in our win loss, but the decisions to have berti, galloway, and herrera up here for so long when it is clear that Ramirez and Dean are better options is just bad management. Maybe not as much berti because Ill admit i havent seen him a ton and his numbers arent horrendous, but the OF management has been pretty brutal. Not to mention the period where they had brinson in the big leagues but just as the 4th OF as if to purposely try to sabotage his development.

I can agree with this, but the problem mostly stems from Brinson being terrible. We should've had a more legitimate CF option behind Brinson, but looking at the big picture misfiring on Brinson is one that's going to hurt moving forward for the next couple of years. Herrera or Berti would probably be fine as utility type guys in the majors, but the fact that they're getting significant playing time over others is dumb, I agree, but who's going to man CF? Harrison? as well as he's doing in AAA he needs a full year there IMO. Ramirez, Anderson and Dean have no business being in CF.

[tjfla]

Sucks Ozuna changed agents now and not 2 years ago. We tried to extend him multiple times but Boras told us his demands and was crazy numbers

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I really dont want to come off as optimistic because ill be the first to admit i completely underestimated how bad this lineup is and brinson, who was a major key this year was awful, but to repeat myself for the 100th time over the course of the last 2 years, it is really hard to put into words how hard it is to be 43 win bad. The lineup of that tiger team was similar to us hitting wise but slightly better because they at least had dimitri young, but our rotation is significantly better than theirs and their bullpen was about the same as ours.

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I disagree, it wouldnt make a huge difference in our win loss, but the decisions to have berti, galloway, and herrera up here for so long when it is clear that Ramirez and Dean are better options is just bad management. Maybe not as much berti because Ill admit i havent seen him a ton and his numbers arent horrendous, but the OF management has been pretty brutal. Not to mention the period where they had brinson in the big leagues but just as the 4th OF as if to purposely try to sabotage his development.

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True, we are all pretty much splitting hairs for something that in the end really doesnt matter. Is there a way to see what the league average OPS + is compared to ours and what some of the worst OPS + teams are of all time and how we compare.

- - - - - - - - - -

What are the service time implications depending on when we promote gallen? Cause he went 7 with just 1 ER and 9 k's and just 1 BB again tonight and is obviously ready. Alcantara is clearly struggling so its a matter of time unless he drastically improves soon but if there are service time implications I could easily see them justifying promoting Elieser instead. Riddle also should be up here and either playing everyday or at the very least platooning.

Lots of AAA should be up in the majors but they are trying to build some value and trade 8 or so of them which is why they arent. Elieser is up because he is already on the 40 man and actually looked as good as Gallen(plus keep him down till July and get another year of him)

Improve trade value of vets and they don't care about 2019 is the reason guys like Riddle/Dean/Gallen/RP arent getting looks. Well that and it gives them regular playing time

As for CF in 2020 u got Brinson/Harrison/Sierra/FA or Rule 5 guy/longshot is VV. Would be a surprise to see VV in MLB in 2020-up to AA in July and then AFL this year and then in camp next year

2020
LF/RF-Dean,Ramirez,Brinson
CF-Harrison/VV/Sierra/#1 Pick in Rule 5

[fish16]

Sucks Ozuna changed agents now and not 2 years ago. We tried to extend him multiple times but Boras told us his demands and was crazy numbers

Still think he’d be a great free agent addition if the market continues to be like the last few years. I’m gonna need to see at least 2 legitimate bats added in free agency this offseason. 1 Of and 1 if whether it’s 1b, maybe SS

[tjfla]

Still think he’d be a great free agent addition if the market continues to be like the last few years. I’m gonna need to see at least 2 legitimate bats added in free agency this offseason. 1 Of and 1 if whether it’s 1b, maybe SS

Agreed thats why I said it sucked. They are gonna have cash to spend in FA the question is about the draft. If they go with Bleday at #4 and #TankforTork at #1 Next Year they are gonna have RF and 1B types who will have to play by 2022

Just say
2022

C-Alfaro
1B-Bleday
2B-Diaz
SS-Devers
3B-BA
LF-Harrison/Connor Scott
CF-VV
RF-Tork

then not sure they spend for Ozuna. Likely SP in 2020 and Lindor in 2021

ALL about adding talent and this will keep going on till 2021. Draft/IFA/trades are all gonna be about getting depth in minors-2019 is whatever(They want Top 3 Pick),2020 is about getting guys who can stick/show improvement(Want 3-10 Pick in draft),2021 want to start be relevant

[lou]

I really think it is getting close to time to call up Gallen and move Alcantara to the pen.

Since his first start, he has a 6.25 ERA, given up 23 BB's versus 20 K's in 36 IP(5 K/9), has a 1.89 WHIP and 6.04 FIP while only hitting the 6 IP mark once.

I agree, but I'm going to say June 16th, which is a home game against the Pirates. Then, send him down for 10 days, and call him back up on day 11, and he gets a home start against either Nats/Phils on June 27/28, then send him down again for 10 days to stay on normal rest during the all star break, and call him back up first game after the all star break, put him on a normal schedule, and he has home starts against Mets, Padres, @ White Sox, home against Twins/Arizona, then @ Mets, and home Braves.

Deflects Super 2 and that eases him the best one can into major league hitters before you can't tinker with his starts anymore come August. The next start from that scheme above is @ Coors. Fly or die.

They have to deflect the Super 2 at this point which is the main point, so it would be egregious to call him up before that Nats/Phils late June home series unless it's for a spot as suggested above.

I'd give short term starts to E. Hernandez if Alcantara needs to be bumped. He's earned it too and if he sticks and is a super 2, who cares. What a bonus for the club. He doesn't have the pedigree of Gallen right now so that's a fine financial gamble.

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Totally totally disagree here.

Castro's BABIP is .250 and his career mark is .320. ZIPs, Steamer, and THE BAT all have him in the .260.270/.300-310s/.380-.400 range the rest of the way -- in line with his career slash line. He didn't suddenly forget how to hit.

Anderson's BABIP is .298 and small sample size with him but he's well off .332 from last year, .386 from 2017, .376 at AAA in 2017, etc. He's probably a low .300s BABIP bat, so not terribly far off realistically. But, his ISO is .076 against numbers way way above this at every level. His walk rate has increased a good amount. His infield hit and infield fly ball percentages are up tremendously. Projections have him at .250s/.330s/.380s-.390s the rest of the way. He didn't suddenly forget how to hit.

Dean is an upgrade over Granderson's old ass and we all know it.

Harold Ramirez is an upgrade over Jon Berti and Rosell Herrera and we all know it.

There's no reason to expect the offense gets worse as the season goes on -- I'd expect improvement.

This team will be closer to 99 losses than it will be to the Tigers' record.

BTW -- here's an article from May 31, 2013:

https://www.businessinsider.com/marl...history-2013-5



This early season stuff really doesn't matter. This team is bad, this offense is bad. It's not all-time bad.

PS: Marlins finished 2013 at 62-100.

100%

I'd also include I. Diaz, who is maintaining his walk rate and the strikeouts are down massively, with a .275 BABIP. He's some bloop singles and a few XBH hits away from a slash we all won't hate. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a hot month and gets called up. Monte is also walking and the whiffs are down 5%. He has a long ways to go, but the athleticism may just take over at some point. Sierra has also basically doubled his BB rate, and cut his K rate in half. If Monte and Sierra are as good defensively as the scouting says, they are going to be good regulars hitting even a .725 OPS. Brett Gardner had a 2.5 WAR last year with a .700 OPS for perspective (fantastic base running though) and Kepler 2.6 with a .720 OPS. There is some real hope here, even if no one will ever be Yelich.

[Nick]

Hard for me to imagine we're going to be in a situation in a couple of years where our lineup will be good enough to be able start two defense-first OF'ers. We need guys to hit simple as that. I'd like to see Sierra steal more bases. He needs to be a Dee Gordon-level base stealer to even think about him as a potential starter at the big league level.

[emkayseven]

Abreu seems like the obvious FA target for me, for a number of reasons.

Of course, he'll come here and hit .220 with 9 home runs and the shitstorm will intensify

[lou]

Abreu seems like the obvious FA target for me, for a number of reasons.

Of course, he'll come here and hit .220 with 9 home runs and the shitstorm will intensify

I don't want them to sink money into someone like him unless they are going for it (and they clearly are a year or two past 2020 from doing that). He's 33 next year so I'm not sure one can count on his production much longer. If he's cheap on a 1 year deal, sure!

I'm spending big on Anthony Rendon (29 opening day next year) for 7 years, and giving him an opt out in 4 years. They need to build out the 21/22-24 contending window and Abreu doesn't do that. They need a star.

Hard for me to imagine we're going to be in a situation in a couple of years where our lineup will be good enough to be able start two defense-first OF'ers. We need guys to hit simple as that. I'd like to see Sierra steal more bases. He needs to be a Dee Gordon-level base stealer to even think about him as a potential starter at the big league level.

Production is production to me. If they have a killer staff of Sixto, Caleb, "FA", Pablo, and Gallen, with Guzman, Alcantara, E. Cabrera, Anderson, Holloway, and TBD lefties in the bullpen, who cares if you star 8 Kiermaiers and Simmons? You're going to win a lot of games.

But practically, I agree with you and that's why you go all in on Rendon. If Anderson, Alfaro, VVM, Diaz, and Monte/Sierra/Brinson/Ramirez all average out into ordinary 2+ WAR starters.... and cost nothing for years.... if you get Rendon, Didi (the other guy they should sign for 4 years, assuming health. He will be 30), and trade an assortment of pitching/prospects after 2020 for a stud young bat (basically, be the team acquiring Yelich or Ozuna), you all of a sudden probably have a 20-25 WAR position core. That's middle of the pack floor, and with an above average pitching staff, you have a shot.

[tjfla]

Lots of ways they can go. SP and Lindor or Correa/Rendon and SP

I wouldn't mind Rendon and a SP-move BA to RF fulltime OR keep BA at 3B with Rendon at 2B. If they play cards right they will have a RF and 1B from the draft

Staff-Paxton or Ray/Sixto/Caleb/Lopez/Gallen,Richards,Neidert with Cabrera,Garrett,Stewart in AAA
Pen-Quijada,Rogers,Holloway,Anderson,Sandy,Guzman(Actu ally have a few RP who are older who could be solid ML pen guys too)

is pretty solid staff

From what I am hearing is #35 or #46 pick could be a college arm too which would add more talent too. They are looking to go bat heavy in next 2 drafts however think they can get some value with a Carter Stewart/Stinson/Erik Miller so 1 of them could be a pick for us

They will also have #1 Pick in Rule 5 most likely. Doubtful they get a star but u gotta think they can find a ML player with that pick

[lou]

Lots of ways they can go. SP and Lindor or Correa/Rendon and SP

I wouldn't mind Rendon and a SP-move BA to RF fulltime OR keep BA at 3B with Rendon at 2B. If they play cards right they will have a RF and 1B from the draft

Staff-Paxton or Ray/Sixto/Caleb/Lopez/Gallen,Richards,Neidert with Cabrera,Garrett,Stewart in AAA
Pen-Quijada,Rogers,Holloway,Anderson,Sandy,Guzman(Actu ally have a few RP who are older who could be solid ML pen guys too)

is pretty solid staff

From what I am hearing is #35 or #46 pick could be a college arm too which would add more talent too. They are looking to go bat heavy in next 2 drafts however think they can get some value with a Carter Stewart/Stinson/Erik Miller so 1 of them could be a pick for us

They will also have #1 Pick in Rule 5 most likely. Doubtful they get a star but u gotta think they can find a ML player with that pick

2019 draft picks don't impact 2021 for me. Unless excess is being traded. It's just really easy on paper right now. It's something like this:

C - Alfaro, ____
1B - _____, ____
2B - Diaz
SS - ______, _____
3B - Anderson or _____
LF - Monte/Sierra/Brinson/Ramirez
CF - VVM/Monte/Sierra/Brinson, _____
RF - Anderson or _____

SP - Sixto, Caleb, Pablo, Gallen and _____
RP - Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Anderson, Holloway, "current veterans traded for lefties/quijada/garca/stewart"

Chen - $16 dead money
Arb 1 - Anderson, Alfaro, Caleb - Call it $12 million
14 other guys CC - $9 million
=$37 million for 17 guys in 2021. That's a floor. If guys work out, this could easily get over 20.

Trades - Castro, Urena, Prado, Rojas, Steckenrider, Conley, Romo, Walker, Granderson - Fill out bench and lefty relievers

Spend $50 million on Rendon, Didi, a lefty SP, and some sort of 1 year platoon bat

Put them over the top with potential trades of Richards, Neidert, E. Hernandez, Yamamoto, etc. if all the SP actually does work out and/or anyone else in the minors they have depth with. i.e., who cares about Scott if he gets a longterm 1B if VVM, Anderson, and Monte all work out into 2+ WAR starters across the board. They have them for years.

2019/2020 drafts are for keeping a contending window open come 2023 when some of these guys get pricy and they need to re-tool.

They are in good shape, but all of it is contingent on spending money and landing some studs in FA. We're looking at 2023 if not.

[rmc523]

2019 draft picks don't impact 2021 for me. Unless excess is being traded. It's just really easy on paper right now. It's something like this:

C - Alfaro, ____
1B - _____, ____
2B - Diaz
SS - ______, _____
3B - Anderson or _____
LF - Monte/Sierra/Brinson/Ramirez
CF - VVM/Monte/Sierra/Brinson, _____
RF - Anderson or _____

SP - Sixto, Caleb, Pablo, Gallen and _____
RP - Alcantara, Guzman, E. Cabrera, Anderson, Holloway, "current veterans traded for lefties/quijada/garca/stewart"

Chen - $16 dead money
Arb 1 - Anderson, Alfaro, Caleb - Call it $12 million
14 other guys CC - $9 million
=$37 million for 17 guys in 2021. That's a floor. If guys work out, this could easily get over 20.

Trades - Castro, Urena, Prado, Rojas, Steckenrider, Conley, Romo, Walker, Granderson - Fill out bench and lefty relievers

Spend $50 million on Rendon, Didi, a lefty SP, and some sort of 1 year platoon bat

Put them over the top with potential trades of Richards, Neidert, E. Hernandez, Yamamoto, etc. if all the SP actually does work out and/or anyone else in the minors they have depth with. i.e., who cares about Scott if he gets a longterm 1B if VVM, Anderson, and Monte all work out into 2+ WAR starters across the board. They have them for years.

2019/2020 drafts are for keeping a contending window open come 2023 when some of these guys get pricy and they need to re-tool.

They are in good shape, but all of it is contingent on spending money and landing some studs in FA. We're looking at 2023 if not.

$16M for Chen in 2021?

[emkayseven]

I think we all know they aren't signing Rendon or Correa. They aren't going to spend yet.

The reason I'm in favor of Abreu on a 2 year (let's say) deal is because it helps the guys around him in the lineup. I don't want him here when we're contending and I don't think he will be, but having his bat in the middle of the lineup makes it harder to pitch around, say, Castro or Anderson. They get better pitches to hit.

Longterm they have to eventually pony up for a big time FA and they're going to have to use stupid money to do it. And it's going to be ridiculed and it probably won't end up looking great when all is said and done but they're going to have to, they have no other choice.