May Game Thread

[Maddawg]

Narrator: they won’t

Ok....but their record is what it is, and after 39 games or just under 25% of the season, they are on pace to win 41.538 games. And on a losing streak that may not end for another week....they won't lose today because of a rainout, but 2 vs the Rays (almost assuredly losses) and 3 vs the Mets 17th, 18th & 19th, probably losses. Next chance at a win is probably vs Detroit in Detroit on the 21st, 22nd & 23rd. I'll remind you they have only won 4 on the road so far, so even expecting a win in Detroit is an iffy expectation.

[fish16]

Ok....but their record is what it is, and after 39 games or just under 25% of the season, they are on pace to win 41.538 games. And on a losing streak that may not end for another week....they won't lose today because of a rainout, but 2 vs the Rays (almost assuredly losses) and 3 vs the Mets 17th, 18th & 19th, probably losses. Next chance at a win is probably vs Detroit in Detroit on the 21st, 22nd & 23rd. I'll remind you they have only won 4 on the road so far, so even expecting a win in Detroit is an iffy expectation.

And they’ll still win significantly more games than those tigers teams. You really didn’t learn your lesson last year with this exact same thing?

[emkayseven]

538 has us at 106 losses, PECOTA at 100. I don't think we'll be anywhere close to 03 Detroit and neither do they.

Also: I'll take 119 losses if it means going to the World Series 3 years later like Detroit did

[Namaste]

No way were losing today, boysssssss.

[Nick]

Thank you.....you can say overly negative, I can just say a realist. No homerism

Well no, you're not a realist, you predicted 35 wins for a team that won 63. That was always ridiculous. What you basically said above is that we'll fall within 43-55 wins. (2003 Tigers and 2002 Tigers win totals respectively) Considering the team's current record, that's much more plausible.

[Todd]

I really think it is getting close to time to call up Gallen and move Alcantara to the pen.

Since his first start, he has a 6.25 ERA, given up 23 BB's versus 20 K's in 36 IP(5 K/9), has a 1.89 WHIP and 6.04 FIP while only hitting the 6 IP mark once.

[Maddawg]

Well no, you're not a realist, you predicted 35 wins for a team that won 63. That was always ridiculous. What you basically said above is that we'll fall within 43-55 wins. (2003 Tigers and 2002 Tigers win totals respectively) Considering the team's current record, that's much more plausible.

I agree I was just depressed about the team at the time. Now I am am being a realist this year....43 wins will be tough for them unless by magic they learn what a bat is made for.

[fish16]

I agree I was just depressed about the team at the time. Now I am am being a realist this year....43 wins will be tough for them unless by magic they learn what a bat is made for.

I’ll bet you they win at least 15 games more than that and even that’s probably light

[Nick]

53 wins is what I'm calling right now. This offense is all-time bad, and I don't see any significant help in sight. Probably get a little worse once Walker and some of the others are gone.

[emkayseven]

53 wins is what I'm calling right now. This offense is all-time bad, and I don't see any significant help in sight. Probably get a little worse once Walker and some of the others are gone.

Totally totally disagree here.

Castro's BABIP is .250 and his career mark is .320. ZIPs, Steamer, and THE BAT all have him in the .260.270/.300-310s/.380-.400 range the rest of the way -- in line with his career slash line. He didn't suddenly forget how to hit.

Anderson's BABIP is .298 and small sample size with him but he's well off .332 from last year, .386 from 2017, .376 at AAA in 2017, etc. He's probably a low .300s BABIP bat, so not terribly far off realistically. But, his ISO is .076 against numbers way way above this at every level. His walk rate has increased a good amount. His infield hit and infield fly ball percentages are up tremendously. Projections have him at .250s/.330s/.380s-.390s the rest of the way. He didn't suddenly forget how to hit.

Dean is an upgrade over Granderson's old ass and we all know it.

Harold Ramirez is an upgrade over Jon Berti and Rosell Herrera and we all know it.

There's no reason to expect the offense gets worse as the season goes on -- I'd expect improvement.

This team will be closer to 99 losses than it will be to the Tigers' record.

BTW -- here's an article from May 31, 2013:

https://www.businessinsider.com/marl...history-2013-5

The Marlins are on pace to go 39-123. That would break the record for losses in a season, set by the 1962 New York Mets, an expansion team many consider the worst team ever.No team since 1916 has had a winning percentage less than the Marlins current winning percentage of .241.


The Marlins have lost all these games despite the second-easiest schedule in baseball. Their opponents so far have had a combined winning percentage of .480. Only the White Sox have had an easier schedule (.477). The schedule is just going to get harder, which means wins may become fewer.


The Marlins are scoring just 2.7 runs per game and are on pace to score just 441 runs this season. That would be the worst offensive performance in a 162-game season. The 1968 White Sox scored 463 runs.

This early season stuff really doesn't matter. This team is bad, this offense is bad. It's not all-time bad.

PS: Marlins finished 2013 at 62-100.

[Nick]

Totally totally disagree here.

Castro's BABIP is .250 and his career mark is .320. ZIPs, Steamer, and THE BAT all have him in the .260.270/.300-310s/.380-.400 range the rest of the way -- in line with his career slash line. He didn't suddenly forget how to hit.

Anderson's BABIP is .298 and small sample size with him but he's well off .332 from last year, .386 from 2017, .376 at AAA in 2017, etc. He's probably a low .300s BABIP bat, so not terribly far off realistically. But, his ISO is .076 against numbers way way above this at every level. His walk rate has increased a good amount. His infield hit and infield fly ball percentages are up tremendously. Projections have him at .250s/.330s/.380s-.390s the rest of the way. He didn't suddenly forget how to hit.

Dean is an upgrade over Granderson's old ass and we all know it.

Harold Ramirez is an upgrade over Jon Berti and Rosell Herrera and we all know it.

There's no reason to expect the offense gets worse as the season goes on -- I'd expect improvement.

This team will be closer to 99 losses than it will be to the Tigers' record.

BTW -- here's an article from May 31, 2013:

https://www.businessinsider.com/marl...history-2013-5



This early season stuff really doesn't matter. This team is bad, this offense is bad. It's not all-time bad.

PS: Marlins finished 2013 at 62-100.

I'm with you on Castro, Anderson, you would hope he's better than this, but not like he's got a huge track record to fall back on nor does it seem like he's been terribly unlucky. Dean and Ramirez you would hope would be better than Granderson, until I actually see them do it though they're older prospects that have good numbers in AAA and that's it. Berti and Galloway had great numbers in AAA as well. J.T. Riddle is killing it in AAA, we saw how he did in the majors. Peter O'Brien seems to do well every time he goes back to AAA. My point is, counting on guys doing well in AAA to be upgrades is not always an open and shut deal.

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As far as 2013 goes, not sure I see a 23-year old Giancarlo Stanton or 21-year old Christian Yelich anywhere in this system. Also, Caleb Smith has been great this year, not sure 28 starts and a 2 ERA like Jose gave us that year is in the cards, though.

[fish16]

Ya, if anything im a little more optimistic on the bats for the rest of the year compared to what theyve been because of the BABIP's as mentioned above as well as the fact that, idk wtf they have been doing with the roster for the first month and a half, but it seems like they will soon even stumble into the best possible group from this group of terrible options with Dean, Ramirez, maybe Brinson, etc coming up and getting AB's over these ridiculous other lesser options we've been trotting out in Galloway, Herrera, Berti, etc. They arent great options but they are upgrades over those guys.

[fish16]

Also, random but Jorge Alfaro reminds me more of Miguel Olivo every time i watch him and that is not a good thing.

[Namaste]

“43 wins will be tough for them”

I LOL’d.

[Nick]

Jon Berti has the 3rd best OPS on the team of players with more than 38 ABs. He's terrible, yes, but so is everyone else. Roster management has not been the problem. Putting together a roster that is devoid of hitting talent is.