Marlins @ Phillies Series Thread May 16-18th

[Namaste]

It makes sense Lincecum would want to stay out West. If I was him I would want the same.

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Chen (3.63 xFIP) v Velasquez (3.40 xFIP) 7:05

[emkayseven]

I disagree. Shit happens to every team, and we've always lacked in depth to deal with shit. It seems like "everything goes wrong" because there's no contingency plan.

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Side bonus of Ozuna going bonkers: now we can get a legit SP for him. Is Dee back before the trading deadline? With how bad our rotation is, it might be a move that needs to be made this year.

He is, but he's ineligible for the playoffs. So if we move Ozuna for a SP for a playoff push, if we make it, we'll have no LF or 2B

[Jay]

Hech will have his OPS up to .630 by the weekend at this pace. He must be JUICING.

Everything about Hech says he's doing things better at the plate right now than last year except for the luck component. It'll be interesting to see if those improvements are real.

[Valid]

I disagree. Shit happens to every team, and we've always lacked in depth to deal with shit. It seems like "everything goes wrong" because there's no contingency plan.

Depth is only good until you have to use it. Us continually losing our best players to injuries is not a case of "well, we lacked depth." It's a case of, "Shit. Why does this keep happening to us?"

Last year, we were without Stanton and Jose most of the year. That would be like the Nats being without Harper and Scherzer. Let's see them make the playoffs without those two.

[thatnewguy]

I mean, just for example, every single position player starter we had last season missed significant time by either toiling in the minors or just flat out being hurt. That's everything going wrong, not just an "eh, we weren't that good anyway" type situation.

And maybe this team is actually pretty good after all? I don't know, but Ozuna and Bour I believe are for real, Hech's lower OPS seems to be a product of bad luck, and we've completely revamped the bullpen on the fly and it's actually been a strength oddly enough so far this season.

What are the holes in this club right now? The back end of the starting rotation is a concern and the depth, for sure. But I'm not sure I have a reason to believe that if this the team that goes out there each night that they don't have chance to win a lot this year. They've been doing it so far.

[nny]

Except the Marlins aren't a playoff team if all those things didn't happen. And yeah, just about everything did go wrong last year but lack of depth is something that's plagued this team for a decade plus

I legitimately wouldn't be surprised if the Nats with half a season of Harper and Scherzer are better than Marlins with full season of Stanton and Jose.

[Nick]

I think we need a #2-3 starter to take Koehler/Nicolino's spot in the rotation, and I think we'll need another back-end reliever, preferably left-handed, and that's even if Mike Dunn comes back as his old self.

We have the bats to compete with the Mets and Nats, I'm sure of that, but gotta get more pitching help, and I think you gotta do it without dealing guys like Prado or Ozuna, which will be tough.

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Hence why most of us on this board were hoping for at least 2 arms in Free Agency, and we only ended up with one. Would've been a lot easier then.

[nny]

What are the holes in this club right now? The back end of the starting rotation is a concern and the depth, for sure. But I'm not sure I have a reason to believe that if this the team that goes out there each night that they don't have chance to win a lot this year. They've been doing it so far.

Bullpen isn't really a strength, it's the same problem as the rotation: Strong front end, terrible back end. While bullpen ranks 5th in the NL in ERA+, they're 10th in FIP. And yeah, they only have 3/5ths a rotation. Koehler and Nicolino are among the worst SP in the league, and anything they could replace them with would be right there with them.

Can't complain too much about position players. Bour has shut me up, DD was able to step in for Dee, and Rojas would probably be fine if someone else gets injured.

[Nick]

Like others have said and looking at his performance yesterday, I think Hech will come around, but I do wonder if he went down with an injury or we dealt him, would we lose anything with Rojas playing every day? I'm not sure.

[tjfla]

Prado isn't going anywhere in fact their was some talk they would like to extend him for atleast 2 years(who knows) and if they can't they might give him a qualifying offer.

If u trade Ozuna and make the playoffs,u go with DD/Ichiro in LF,Yelich in CF and Rojas/DD at 2B. Wouldn't be a surprise tho if we were in the race that we get a better vet who can play LF instead of Gillespie.

The pen isn't a concern yet since they haven't been fully healthy all year. It could become one once Dunn and Jackson come back and they still have problems. Also not mentioned but we did sign Joe Beimel and Breslow is staying in the system so some LHP depth

[nny]

Yeah I think the loss would be marginal. Hech is probably better defensively and a little with the bat, but they're very similar players. Rojas has definitely developed into a nice piece

[emkayseven]

really wish Cosart would get his shit together

the thing that sucks is there aren't really any realistic trade targets for us and we don't have much to trade. I assume Wilson/Weaver will be available but neither are that good anymore. We know we've liked Wilson. Same with Shields, and I assume Cashner may also be available, but I doubt we'd want Shields's contract and doubt we'd have the pieces to get it done anyway.

[Nick]

I was looking at potential starter trade candidates and I saw this:

http://espn.go.com/blog/mlb/rumors/p...uffers-setback

Henderson Alvarez with a set-back, to undergo an MRI.

[Jay]

Koehler and Nicolino are among the worst SP in the league, and anything they could replace them with would be right there with them.

Just pulled all starters data for 2016 off fangraphs. I got a sample of 196 pitchers who have started at least a game this year. That's 46 extra pitchers if every team goes with a 5 man rotation. So where do our pitchers stack up?

In terms of WAR:
Jose 12 (tie)
Conley 47 (tie)
Koehler 94 (tie)
Nicolino 120 (tie)
Chen 60 (tie)
Flores 139 (tie)
Cosart 139 (tie)
all 7 starters belong in a rotation. Koehler and Nicolino would be classified as #4s with Koehler being one of the best 4s and Nicolino being the worst.

ERA:
Jose 57 (tie)
Conley 66 (tie)
Koehler 134
Nicolino 85
Chen 105 (tie)
Flores 1 (tie)
Cosart 181

FIP:
Jose 13
Conley 43
Koehler 119
Nicolino 129
Chen 57 (tie)
Flores 161
Cosart 145

xFIP:
Jose 9
Conley 78
Koehler 173
Nicolino 187
Chen 54 (tie)
Flores 195
Cosart 171

Basically the only thing that says Koehler and Nicolino shouldn't be in a MLB rotation is xFIP. They may not be good pitchers but this certainly shows that they are adequate number 5 starters when you put it into perspective of the rest of the league. The problem is we have two players that are number 5 starters. Add in that we have a number 3 who needs to perform like a number 2 and then Conley who is hard to project.

FYI: Conley's K rate is currently higher than it was in AA in 2013 before being injured

[nny]

Basically the only thing that says Koehler and Nicolino shouldn't be in a MLB rotation is xFIP. They may not be good pitchers but this certainly shows that they are adequate number 5 starters when you put it into perspective of the rest of the league.

I mean, I was speaking in hyperbole and you can live with one in the rotation. But the goal isn't to be on par with the rest of the league. The goal is to be a playoff caliber team.

Last year, the 5 playoff teams ranked in the top-6 in SP WAR (Nationals are the ones that missed). And there was a big drop off from 6 (16.6) to 7 (10.1).

Now I obviously don't mean that rotation is everything. 2014 pirates made playoffs while 13th in WAR, Padres missed while being 5th because pirates were 2nd in position WAR and padres were last. Also goes into luck, since pirates jump to 8th in ERA+ despite being allegedly average defensively.

But the point being is you want to be good, not average, because only good teams make the playoffs. If you're in the bottom 5th of the league, sure you're a MLB caliber starter in the sense you can start somewehre but you're still in the bottom 5th of the league