July 2021 Game Thread

[Nick]

For Marte I'd do: (all guaranteed) 4 years / $52 million, 3 years / $45 million or 2 years / $40 million

[rmc523]

For Marte I'd do: (all guaranteed) 4 years / $52 million, 3 years / $45 million or 2 years / $40 million

If his camp has said 4/45 gets it done, why would you give him more money?


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If the years are the big hangup, they should've countered with a guaranteed 4 year 42 + 3M in incentives.



Structure it the same as their final 3-36.5 offer for years 1 through 3 (12.167/year), and make year 4 $5.5M plus incentives.



1 - 12.167M

2 - 12.167M

3 - 12.167M

4 - 5.5 guaranteed + 3 in incentives.



$42 guaranteed, $45 possible if incentives are reached.



He gets his 4th year and potential to reach his desired $45 total, but the Marlins have some potential protection if he doesn't perform in year 4.

And you're ultimately talking about a guaranteed 2 M (and potential 5M total) over what they've already max offered (40M). Yeah, you're giving him a 4th year guaranteed, but that's where the incentives come in.



A lower 4th year total also makes him easier to trade or hurts less if they have to release him in that last year if they want.

[Nick]

If his camp has said 4/45 gets it done, why would you give him more money?

I was just listing the highest I'd go based on the number of years, so I wouldn't go higher than $52 million if we're going to give him 4 years. Of course if you can get him for less, great.

Why would his camp ask for more than 4/45 in the offseason? Well the fact that he's hitting .361 since going to Oakland could be one reason. Also, you're bidding against other teams in Free Agency as opposed to trying to re-sign him.

[rmc523]

I was just listing the highest I'd go based on the number of years, so I wouldn't go higher than $52 million if we're going to give him 4 years. Of course if you can get him for less, great.

Why would his camp ask for more than 4/45 in the offseason? Well the fact that he's hitting .361 since going to Oakland could be one reason. Also, you're bidding against other teams in Free Agency as opposed to trying to re-sign him.

Fair enough.

I am surprised the gap is/was so small, though - literally 1 guaranteed year and $5M is all that separates the two sides. You'd think he asked for 4/60 or something, which would've been 20 over the max the Marlins had offered - that'd be one thing for them to break off talks. But 5M? Come on.




Let's hope they revisit in the offseason. And I cling onto some hope of his "I want to be in Miami" swaying things our way if offers are equal.

[rmc523]

This report also leaves me less hopeful we're signing anybody worth noting if a 1 year/$5M gap was the breaking point for the team.

[fish16]

i think it was the years, not the money, that was the fundamental source of the disagreement.

[rmc523]

i think it was the years, not the money, that was the fundamental source of the disagreement.

Which I do understand for the age he'd be then.......but you can get creative to get around that, as I posted above - give him most of the money in the first 3 years, and incentivize the last year to protect against decline, while also getting him close to his full guaranteed desire.

At some point, this team also needs to show it's willing to spend/sign some guys, even if that might mean an extra year if you don't necessarily want to. i.e. Jayson Werth with the Nationals.

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As I've said previously, they have through the offseason for me to show that they're going to actually spend some money, but this is leaving me less hopeful.

[lou]

marte talks apparently went down like this: Marlins offered 4 years 40 million with a 4th year option. Marte then countered with 4 years 45 million all 4 years guaranteed. Miami countered with 3 years 36.5 million. Marte is now in Oakland. If that's what marte gets this offseason, we should be in that market 100%. I wouldn't do 4 years but id feel comfortable with 3 years or 2 very big years like 2 for 30.

Don't believe this at all. It doesn't comp out at all. Michael Brantly, coming off very similar prior two years, signed a 2/$32 extension at age 33. It's an exact comp.

Marte is very arguably better than him with his ability to play CF. At minimum, he's the same. He's the only good CF going to free agency. He's probably a 3/$48 floor (same annual, extra year). It's probably higher due to him being the only one.

Marlins are clowns if they turned down 4/$45m. Clowns.

[fish16]

Don't believe this at all. It doesn't comp out at all. Michael Brantly, coming off very similar prior two years, signed a 2/$32 extension at age 33. It's an exact comp.

Marte is very arguably better than him with his ability to play CF. At minimum, he's the same. He's the only good CF going to free agency. He's probably a 3/$48 floor (same annual, extra year). It's probably higher due to him being the only one.

Marlins are clowns if they turned down 4/$45m. Clowns.

the marlins clearly were good with 3 years. they weren't ok with 4 years. and with their OF depth and with the money needed to pay marte in year 4, i don't blame them. we don't need him for 4 years. its not worth it. he's not a .900 OPS guy. He's a low-mid .800 OPS guy. He's obviously a spectacular player but I don't blame them for a second for not giving a guy who will be 33 opening day next year 4 years when his career OPS is under .800. that's a foolish contract for a team who will presumptively need to sign the actual guys going into their prime during that time period.

This flatly appears to be a years thing, not a money thing, and honestly I wouldn't give starling marte more than 2 guaranteed years with a team or mutual option for the 3rd year for huge money either. If you cant get him for 2 years, find the guy you can get for that time period or trade a pitcher for a young guy who you would have under control. I don't blame the front office one bit for not giving a guy who while good, isn't a star, in a small market, 4 years going into next opening day at age 33. That would be dumb.

[lou]

the marlins clearly were good with 3 years. they weren't ok with 4 years. and with their OF depth and with the money needed to pay marte in year 4, i don't blame them. we don't need him for 4 years. its not worth it. he's not a .900 OPS guy. He's a low-mid .800 OPS guy. He's obviously a spectacular player but I don't blame them for a second for not giving a guy who will be 33 opening day next year 4 years when his career OPS is under .800. that's a foolish contract for a team who will presumptively need to sign the actual guys going into their prime during that time period.

This flatly appears to be a years thing, not a money thing, and honestly I wouldn't give starling marte more than 2 guaranteed years with a team or mutual option for the 3rd year for huge money either. If you cant get him for 2 years, find the guy you can get for that time period or trade a pitcher for a young guy who you would have under control. I don't blame the front office one bit for not giving a guy who while good, isn't a star, in a small market, 4 years going into next opening day at age 33. That would be dumb.

4/$45 is highway robbery. He is not worse than 2/$32 Michael Brantley. They also have no CF depth (maybe they will). I think it's an organizational failure IF that is the number - but I don't think it is. That is obnoxiously low. Maybe 3/$45 as that gets into the realm of being a real low-ball. No way for 4.

He's been a 4 WAR player for 2 years now. He's a star. That may be optimistic WAR total moving forward, but he's not dropping off a cliff either with his skill set

[lou]

Another clown move would be NOT extending Sandy for 5-6 years. This dude is great.

[fish16]

4/$45 is highway robbery. He is not worse than 2/$32 Michael Brantley. They also have no CF depth (maybe they will). I think it's an organizational failure IF that is the number - but I don't think it is. That is obnoxiously low. Maybe 3/$45 as that gets into the realm of being a real low-ball. No way for 4.

He's been a 4 WAR player for 2 years now. He's a star. That may be optimistic WAR total moving forward, but he's not dropping off a cliff either with his skill set

its not the AAV, its the years. If frontloaded, I agree. If spread evenly or backloaded that's not a good deal for a 36-37 year old CF who isn't a star at a position in OF that we have really good depth at.

[lou]

its not the AAV, its the years. If frontloaded, I agree. If spread evenly or backloaded that's not a good deal for a 36-37 year old CF who isn't a star at a position in OF that we have really good depth at.

4/$45 split equally is fine. I'm not worried about $11 million bucks in 2026, if you get Marte for $5-8 million cheaper than market value each of the previous 3 years. It's all relative. That's an amazing deal for the Marlins!

But right - so do that if that's all the money he wanted. Who gives a shit, then sign him for 3/$44 and treat the fourth year as a bonus if he holds up. Just fucking cut him. They should be paying that all 22/23 anyways before Rogers/Jazz/etc. hit arb.

None of this makes sense. 4/$45 is bullcrap. No way that is true. That is Ozzie Albies contract level dumb when Michael Brantley gets 2/$32 and you're the only CF of value on the market.

[fish16]

4/$45 split equally is fine. I'm not worried about $11 million bucks in 2026, if you get Marte for $5-8 million cheaper than market value each of the previous 3 years. It's all relative. That's an amazing deal for the Marlins!

But right - so do that if that's all the money he wanted. Who gives a shit, then sign him for 3/$44 and treat the fourth year as a bonus if he holds up. Just fucking cut him. They should be paying that all 22/23 anyways before Rogers/Jazz/etc. hit arb.

None of this makes sense. 4/$45 is bullcrap. No way that is true. That is Ozzie Albies contract level dumb when Michael Brantley gets 2/$32 and you're the only CF of value on the market.

agree to disagree. count me out on 10-12 million+ for marte's age 35 and 36 seasons. But again it all depends on how they reallocate that money. If they re-sign sandy and another guy and spend on a free agent who isn't already in his mid 30's, I'm cool with it. I don't pay guys into their mid to late 30's who have proven to be low .800 OPS guys in their prime, let alone what he will be the next 4 years past his prime. I love marte and what he brings to the table and if you're a big market team you give him that, but at that price point and what we would have to pay come those last 2 years given what I expect from a 35-36 year old who has never been more than a low .800s ops guy, no thank you.

With marte, ill give him stupid money for 2 years, maybe a partially guaranteed 3rd year. 4 years? No shot. He is not a superstar.

[Lee Stone]

Key moment in last night's game. Two outs and bases loaded for Marlins. Lefty on the mound who is forced to face his third hitter, who turns out to be LHB Jesus Sanchez. If you want to give your team the best chance to win, you go to the bench, where you have the NL rbi leader sitting on the pine.

I really believe that Sanchez is going to be a solid player for the Marlins, but having him take that at bat, given the option, was foolish. I think every single one of us would have gone with Aguilar in that situation.