Long Rambling About FO and Stuff

[nny]

This is something I've meant to type up for awhile but never got around to now.

With the hiring of Manny Acta in CLE, I stumbled upon this blog entry about the problems with the Indians. The entire thing is interesting and worth a read in my opinion, but I want to focus on one thing in particular, which is:

Theory #1: They might as well be bloggers.

Maybe the joke is on us. The Indians make the "right" moves, like signing Dave Dellucci, not the "wrong" moves, like signing Raul Ibañez. They know the stats, we know the stats, so when they make a move, it looks right to us. Problem is, we tend to forget that the numbers rarely tell us the full story. It's one thing to argue the numbers with a fellow fan — all I've got is the numbers, and all he's got is the numbers, because neither of us are scouts — but it's quite another to praise a front office for being able to Paint By Numbers. I mean, hell, any of us could paint by the numbers.

Maybe it isn't a good thing that I can understand and explain most every move the Indians make. Maybe they should be making moves that don't make sense to me — because after all, all I've got are the numbers. The saberblog view is essentially that since the numbers are all we can be sure about, the numbers are all that matter, and anything else is pure luck. In other words, the entire career of a GM like Pat Gillick was pure luck.

The Indians have done a great job at amassing value on paper, but they've shown little ability to discover value that isn't evident in the numbers. I've been able to explain pretty well why the Indians do almost everything that they do — aside from burying Marte. Maybe that's a problem.

It's meaning is simple and I'm certainly not going to delve into it. But to me, for things like the Bonifacio experiment, I have no problem at all with them trying him out. The fact he got 500 PAs is what's idiotic.

But it brings up the question...really, has their been a situation where the FO has been right about more or less "their guy"?

I mean, running down from 2006, other people can add in situations before then, but

just going strait across the diamond

Hammer was not given a starting roll until he was 27 years old, even though he had been pounding the minors with a vengeance ever since he started pro ball. I mean yeah there's certainly the defensive situation, but there's still the fact he was kept down for so long.

Then in CF, there's the issue of Reggie being the starting CFer in '06, De Aza in '07 and in '08. Yeah Amezaga filled in "ok enough", but want to know who's a damn good CFer? Cody Ross, who's been a Marlin since '06 and didn't become the starting CFer until mid-May '08. I mean yes, certainly, give them all the credit in the world for finding Cody. And yeah, sure, he was injured most of '07. But still it took them that long for him to be the starting CF?

Then there's the whole Hermida issue. Yeah, he was a top prospect, but he was clearly a case of scouting going horribly wrong (as well as numbers but the focus here is on scouting). Obviously there was nothing that tipped them off in the minors about his attitude, otherwise they would have sold high on him back in '05.

3B there's been cabs yeah, give credit for Cantu as even though he had good years before he had been terrible for a couple years going into '08, and then the bonifacio failed experiment.

SS, yeah, win. But they themselves admit they didn't think Hanley would be this good. No one thought Hanley would be this good. He was a top prospect because of the thought that he'd be what he was in '06: ~.800ish OPS with a shit ton of steals and good defense (Well, the defense was a flop, but that's neither here nor there). Nobody saw him turning into what he's been the last 3 years. So can you really give credit for that?

Then at 1B, the only focus really would be Jacobs, and you have to wonder how much credence they put into his September call up for the Mets. I mean, yeah, for 300k, his production was far from the WORST possible scenario in the world. But we're talking about a guy who put up a .796 OPS (.850 OPS average for the position) and a -9.7 UZR/150. We're talking about a well below average 1B.

And at C they've never been able to just pull the god damn trigger and the god damn dead horse. We had to deal with Olivo in '07, where if his .262 OBP wasn't bad enough he also combined for 67! PB+WP. Just saying Olivo and '07 brings up all the horrible memories of how many times a ball would hit him square in the mitt and he would drop it. Yeah, Treanor was playing way way over his head. But do you know what he atleast did? Play good defense.

Which kind of brings me to an aside. How could our FO never see the problem in '07 with the defense? With how big of a step back they took across the entire field from '06 to '07, they never bothered to go "What the fuck is going wrong?" I mean, don't get me wrong, the whole not having mandatory fielding practice is completely on Fredi, I'm not trying to defer blame here. Fact remains though that they should have done something about it.

And then in '08, there was the whole Treanor and Rabelo failjob. Oh, and you know who else got a starting job shot? Paul freakin' Hoover. Then it was finally given to Baker. I mean yes, they went out and traded for Baker, they deserve credit for going and getting him. But at the same time, it's like, WTF took so long for him to start?

This is why I delayed Uggla. Uggla is certainly a 100% case of credit to FO. But at the same time, what happens if Pokey Reese shows up to '06 ST? Is it really that pessimistic to assume Uggla would be in the same boat as Cody and Baker of "Yeah, great job in getting him, but wtf took so long for him to start?"

And the rotation is absolutely littered with BA top prospects, so it's not like it's a case of them being above the field in that. The one guy who has really gone over his head is only Ricky, and that took a new pitch to accomplish so he's not someone you can really say "go FO" on but rather "Go wiley". And it's hard to blame for failures like Scotty-O and Andrew because of pitching attrition, and FA signings like Hendrickson because of budget restrictions (kinda rhyme!)

Which then goes to the BP, and at that point really is credit to FO. I mean yeah there was the Julio disaster, and the '06 pen was just terrible, but there's not much to complain about the past 3 years, and they deserve a lot of credit for getting Miller and Gardner in '07, Nelson and Waecther in '08, and Sanches this past season. I mean, that is the case of finding guys who are putting up good numbers in AAA, but realizing those numbers can transition to the major league level because they actually have the talent.

And yes they deserve a lot of credit for how they've drafted the past few years, but my main focus is on the MLB level where you can fit our players into 3 positions really: the "yeah, but he was very likely going to be good anyway, so do they really deserve credit", the "why the fuck did they stick with him for so long", and the "good job on finding him but why the fuck did he not start sooner".

[lou]

I really don't know how to legitimately respond to all of this, but a few broad themes:

1 - I think they do more good than bad
2 - Which is impressive for the miniscule payroll they have to work with
3 - They pretty much drafted a top 5 minor league class by themselves the last few years, and they do a great job of identifying talent in trades for the most part.

There are clearly some WTF moments, but it is maybe getting better. Look at EB. In years past, we left Reggie or De Aza or Amezaga in CF forever. It took 500 PA, but Nick Johnson finally showed up. Also, how many of us would have sent CC back to AAA after 21 games and .212/.354/.303 (.657), in LF? Granted we would have all played CC at 2B/3B moving Uggla or not, and then rotating in OF until we found one that wanted to hit. But, they deserve some credit for playing the kids and giving them an honest shot. Maybe the counter to this argument is, Coghlan deserves that shot based on his minor league career and EB, Reggie, De Aza, Borchard, Rabelo, etc, should have never been given PA to figure it out, but still. I'm really optimistic we won't have another EB situation ever again, based on our minors, the fact EB might have cost us at least 5 games this year statistically which makes the playoffs that much more probable, and that we have payroll coming in 2012.

Also, not to cherry pick a good case for me because I can't make an argument for every player here as that would be longer than the arb thread I did, but let's look at an example of a guy that you put in the "wtf start them earlier" category. Cody. He shows up in 2006, and hits a rather bad .212/.284/.396 (.680) in 250 AB. Then he goes nuts for 173 AB in 2007 with the 1.000+. In 2006, he split a .624 vs RHP. In 2007, bonkers. So what happens in 2008? He plays in 145 games, gets just under 500 PA, and is benched sometimes for RHP. They ease him into the lineup in April to make sure he was still going to hit, and eventually took over the job through performance competition. He held his own .700+ vs RHP so then 2009, he gets just under 600 PA because he earned them. This all sounds "right" to me at scaling up his playing time. I can't get mad that he didn't get an extra 150 PA in 2008 and an extra 100 in 2009. That's playing hindsight at seeing how well he has developed defensively, how consistent he has been (despite the hot streaks) at performing at this level, etc. Cody is solid, but I mean, that's it. He's a must play versus LHP, but you can bench him 2 of every 5 games against a tough right hander or a park with a smaller outfield and get in a better offensive option. I'm just saying, they have treated Cody pretty damn right in this organization. He could have been a quick cut after 2006 and a sub .300 OBP, even if the lefty split was pretty high. I can't criticize them for not playing him immediately when he went nuts in limited PA in 2007.

I think a lot of this is payroll and not being able to sign a "Garret Anderson" for $2.5 million a year at 2-3 positions to shore up a short term need. I think they understand the problems, but are literally forced to play the Uggla, Cody, Borchard, Cantu, Olivo, Pokey, Rabelo, Baker, Reggie, Moehler, Byung Kim, Gonzo, Meyer, etc, game and hope it works out. It's tough to field a legit major league team for $35 million dollars.

We'll see what's up when the stadium hits, but I'll be incredibly disappointed if they keep screwing up/being cheap when they have double the payroll to work with. Only time will tell. I'm really happy with where the team is right now. Could it be better? Sure. But every team needs another SP and one more bat except the Yankees and Red Sox.

[Swifty]

Off the top of my head, these are the "Beinfest guys" we've had since '03:

Paul LoDuca
Guillermo Mota
Todd Jones
Brian Moehler
Jose Castillo
Pokey Reese
Jorge Julio
Reggie Abercrombie
Alfredo Amezaga
Emilio Bonifacio

Those are the guys he overly promised a roster spot to when they came in on a non-guaranteed deal, the guys he stalked until he could overpay for them in trade (LoDuca, Mota, Julio)

I think this discussion can be boiled down to three names:

Pokey Reese, Jose Castillo and Emilio Bonifacio (with a nod to Jorge Julio); if Reese didn't lose his mind and Castillo found a way to hit .270 in the spring, we're a drastically different team.

So while I think that Indians team represents one extreme of the argument, I think the Marlins represent the other extreme; too much going with the gut, this is our guy kind of stuff. Granted, the budget plays into that (although at this point I must say the budget has turned into a favorable crutch as we can just point to it and say 'come on, you do better for $35 mil') but really, we are the example why going with the gut is a problem. Instinctively, you want to pull the plug, but going with something intangible means you keep waiting for it to show up, and a 50 AB audition turns into 100 which turns into 400.

[lou]

Instinctively, you want to pull the plug, but going with something intangible means you keep waiting for it to show up, and a 50 AB audition turns into 100 which turns into 400.

See this is it. With no organizational depth, Bonifacio just has to freaking play. Who are we going to turn to, Lee Mitchell? That's where I'd criticize them, not that they wanted to give EB a shot (and I say that based on what else we had in the organization in April 09). Or even an extended shot (I'll draw the line at 150 PA or thereabouts for a guy like EB).

That they had no fucking backup plan what-so-ever. Or, that their backup plan, being Gaby 1B/Cantu 3B, never fucking happened. That's where I point the finger and draw the line.

[BigGameFish]

I think you're over reacting. I mean it takes time to evaluate players. And once they commit to someone before the season starts it is hard to make improvements mid-season so usually they have no choice but to leave them in. The one point i do agree with is leaving Josh Williingham in the minors for so long (and then trading him AND Olsen for nothing)

[nny]

I wasn't really trying to demean the FO really. It's really just rambling with a free thought process. I guess my point was, is there really been a case, on the major league roster, where our scouting has "beaten" other FOs, as so much has been made out of our scouting department. So much has been made of us getting prospects in trades, and I mean yeah, considering attrition, they have to be doing something right to target the guys who'll work out. But at the same time, we're talking about guys who are regarded as top prospects by everyone. Uggla definitely, they found him and he started out the gates, but as I brought up and swift also addressed, how lucky are we that Pokey Reese went AWOL?

I'm too lazy to double check atm but I think JJ is the only guy left on our ML roster that's actually doing something that we drafted. They've done a great system with the farm no doubt, but Logan was the only guy that wasn't a high draft pick. I'm not trying to demean the farm system, after all high draft picks meant great system every time would have a great system. But just saying.

And Swifts point/lou's second post was what I was also getting at. I have no problem with Bonifacio starting. But at the same time, has it ever actually worked out for them outside of guys drafted? Instead they give 300 PAs to Abercrombie, 500 to emilio, 10? save chances to Julio, so on and so forth of trying to get those guys to work out but they don't.

I will say Amezaga was a great pick up though because he's a very good bench player. He's borderline average/slightly below average starter at 2-3 premium positions as a starter (CF, SS, and maaaaybe 2b) because of his defense. That's damn good for a bench player.

[nny]

I'm just going to make this my random thought thread YO

Here's a name that hasn't been brought up since earlier this season as a trade target, and I think Swift will like this since he liked him before

What about Jason Giambi this offseason?

He's likely not looking at getting a starting gig anywhere else after putting up a .725 line. Maybe someone like Pit picks him up and tries to "Hinske" him, but fact remains he aint getting much interest.

But if you look at his season line. He still hit for power. He still walks an absolute ton. The problem is he finished the year with a .230 BABIP. You even that out to his career .300 rate, we're talking about a .249/.382/.430/.812, which isn't great but room to grow in SLG from moving from massive Oakland Coliseum to Landshawk (His ISO in Oakland was .171. In COL, it was .292). I don't think it's that far fetched to say he could possibly rise back up to the mid 800 OPS range, though certainly shouldn't be expected. And maybe that doesn't even out, maybe his talent has gotten horrible and he can't hit for any semblance of average anymore.

He's also someone who can hit LHP, so it's not like we have to worry about a platoon situation, but it also gives us a situation of easing Gaby Sanchez into 1b, since Giambi certainly aint playing 162 games, and Sanchez can see a lot of LHP, which he mashes and could raise his confidence about hitting at this level.

But the other big thing is: Let's say he busts again, or Gaby Sanchez breaks out, or Logan starts tearing it up. He has a career PH OPS of .302/.397/.540/.937 and was awesome this year for COL. Yeah, it's just 73 PA, and a lot of that came from when he was great. But we're still talking about a guy who's talent transition to a bench role, we're not talking about a Luis Gonzalez situation here. So worse comes worse we move him to the bench, where he could match Ross Gload's 700 OPS.

And yeah there's the problem with his defense, but he's not TERRIBLE out there, he's just pretty god damn bad and better suited for DH.

The million dollar question is of coarse how much does he cost. But he's not gonna make the 5m he had this past season. If we offer him something like, 1 mil with 2 mil in incentives, does he take that because we give him a place to start? At best we pay 3 mil for Giambi as a good starter. At worst we pay 1 mil for Giambi as a bench bat. I mean maybe we have to do something like 2 mil with 3 mil in incentives, and at which point it really starts becoming "so what's our payroll going to be", but real interesting to me.

And there's also the glaring fact that we'd still have a hole at 3b while spending money elsewhere.

[nny]

post from other place (aren't I talkative tonight)

The reason people link to Seattle is because there was talking about a trade last season. Maybe Z is no longer interested in Hermida, who knows.

People are quick to point to Seattle's emphasis on defense. Wouldn't it instead be Seattle's emphasis on cheap players that outperform what seattle paid to get them? If they view Hermida as breaking out and putting up an upper 800 OPS again, he easily outperforms their other options regardless of defense.

here's the aftermath from last offseason:

Remember the rumored deal with the Florida Marlins that was reported during the timeframe that the J.J. Putz deal went down with the New York Mets? Well, I was recently referred to a member of the Marlins scouting department when I asked about their second base prospect Chris Coghlan, and the conversation, naturally, went toward those trade talks, and here's what he said that I thought was relevant.

"The deal was never close," he said, "because we wanted one particular name and their best offer came in without that name. They didn't budge on that name, and we couldn't see moving forward unless we got what we felt was the right deal for us."

That name was Adam Moore, the M's top catching prospect, who ranks in the middle of Prospect Insider
s Top 10 in the upcoming handbook. The trade, apparently, turned into a 4-for-2 deal, where Florida would have sent right fielder Jeremy Hermida and second base prospect Coghlan to the Mariners, for second baseman Jose Lopez, left-hander Ryan Rowland-smith, right-hander Juan Ramirez and catcher Adam Moore.

The Mariners countered with something like this: Lopez, Cesar Jimenez, Rob Johnson and either Luis Valbuena or Matt Tuiasosopo. The Fish wanted Moore in the deal, and Seattle apparently wanted no part of trading him, so Zduriencik moved on to the Mets.

I do wonder if they would be interested in a Hermida and stuff trade for Jose Lopez. He's cheap for two more years (2.3m in '10, 4.5m club option in '11), and is a "good enough" stop gap at 3b until Dominguez is ready (And would be a massive upgrade over what we got out of 3b last year). What that "and stuff" is would be hard to say. There's also the fact that they don't really have anyone to replace Lopez with. Tuiasosopo should be at 3b if he's up, and has only played 21 MILB games at 2b. Bill Hall continued to suck after going over there. Though they also do have the financial ability to go out and get a Orlando Hudson-like player.

[m26555]

post from other place (aren't I talkative tonight)

The reason people link to Seattle is because there was talking about a trade last season. Maybe Z is no longer interested in Hermida, who knows.

People are quick to point to Seattle's emphasis on defense. Wouldn't it instead be Seattle's emphasis on cheap players that outperform what seattle paid to get them? If they view Hermida as breaking out and putting up an upper 800 OPS again, he easily outperforms their other options regardless of defense.

here's the aftermath from last offseason:



I do wonder if they would be interested in a Hermida and stuff trade for Jose Lopez. He's cheap for two more years (2.3m in '10, 4.5m club option in '11), and is a "good enough" stop gap at 3b until Dominguez is ready (And would be a massive upgrade over what we got out of 3b last year). What that "and stuff" is would be hard to say. There's also the fact that they don't really have anyone to replace Lopez with. Tuiasosopo should be at 3b if he's up, and has only played 21 MILB games at 2b. Bill Hall continued to suck after going over there. Though they also do have the financial ability to go out and get a Orlando Hudson-like player.

I would do it. He is not a good on-base guy (.303 last season), but he is certainly productive in terms of power numbers (25 homers, 42 doubles, and 96 RBI with a .463 SLG% in '09).

[lou]

I think we need a veteran 1B/LF that hits left handed. Giambi doesn't really fit the mold. I say that, because I want this team

R Maybin CF
L Coghlan 2B/LF
R Hanley SS
R Cantu 3B
L Baker C
R Ross RF
R G. Sanchez 1B
R Carroll LF / S Bonifacio 2B

B - Carroll/Bonifacio, Paulino, Helms, "Vet Lefty 1B/LF," and Best Bench Bat you can find.

Veteran left handed 1B/LF that can start 100 games, giving G. Sanchez (Morrison) and Carroll/Bonifacio (Petersen) the other 200+ starts really helps out everyone out.

Just to throw a name out, Mark Kotsay hit .290/.347/.419 against RHP last year, and in 2008 .288/.345/.432. That's a pretty solid 475 PA split with those two years. Can't hit lefties a lick though, but who cares.

---

Secondly, and totally unrelated, I see this Jose Lopez stuff. Why not give Cantu a 2 year contract for like, $10-12 million? If we're all just penciling him into $5.5-6 million arbitration, and Cantu sees how crazy low the FA market will be because if Bobby Abreu can only get a 1/$5 deal, why don't we try to use that leverage right now and lock up 3B for two years so Dominguez can just hang. I kind of like that idea. Cantu is currently 27 years old. If he combines 2008 power and 2009 BB/K improvement, he's going to spike up in performance. I can deal with the defense. I'd prefer all trades to be for pitching, and not acquire Jose Lopez types. Even if it's just Hermida.

---

Yea so my offseason right now

-JJ 4-5 year contract
-Nolasco, Ross, Paulino, Pinto, anibal, lindstrom arbitration/1 year deal
-Cantu 2 year deal
-sign Kotsay
-Trade uggla, hermida, nunez, amezaga for as much pitching as you can get
-obtain a ross gload replacement in above trades or cheap signing

That would look pretty good on paper and right around $40 mil.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

Or we can just resign Gload. He said he was interested in returning. We can decline his option and renegotiate a lower salary for him.

[SFiercex4]

I think we need a veteran 1B/LF that hits left handed...

...Veteran left handed 1B/LF that can start 100 games, giving G. Sanchez (Morrison) and Carroll/Bonifacio (Petersen) the other 200+ starts really helps out everyone out.

Erick Hinske. I touted him before, he's terribly underrated. And, even combining scouting report numbers, it seems like he isn't a terrible outfielder either; I have as an even defender at every position he plays, except maybe third base.

I think it may be time to move on from Cantu, if we're expecting to pay that kind of money. I think he needs to hit a good deal better to be worth that kind of money to the Marlins.

The Jose Lopez deal could be interesting. He's nothing special at second base, but since he developed some power, he's done enough to be around a league average hitter. He'll never draw a walk for you, but he's kind of like Cody-lite at the plate. If he does what he's done the last two years on offense and is near league average on defense, we could have ourselves an average player for $2.7M, which is never bad given what the Marlins are interested in paying. I suspect Seattle wouldn't do it, since the thing they probably need the most is pitching, but the Marlins should listen in.