Jayson Stark Picks Coghlan for ROY

[emkayseven]

He makes some crazy comparisons too...

It isn't every year that two rookie starters as sensational as J.A. Happ and Tommy Hanson swoop in and go 12-4 and 11-4, respectively, with sub-3.00 ERAs for teams that needed every pitch they threw. But who is the last rookie hit machine remotely like Chris Coghlan? Ichiro? Derek Jeter? Nomar Garciaparra? Well, if those are the names we're comparing this guy to, that pretty much ends the debate about this trophy, wouldn't you say? Coghlan has cranked out more hits (157) than all but three men in the entire National League since his May 8 debut, has more hits (108) than anyone in the sport since the All-Star break and has the highest average (.332), on-base percentage (.394) and OPS (.861) of any NL leadoff hitter for the season. His 48 hits in September were the most by any rookie in 81 years (Chuck Klein, 1928). His 95 hits in August and September combined are the third-most in back-to-back months by any NL player in the expansion era, behind only Pete Rose and Dave Parker -- and the most by any rookie in 62 years (Dale Long, 1947). Five months ago, a lot of people thought the Marlins were crazy to drop this guy into their leadoff hole and a position (left field) he'd played for one day in his pro career. Needless to say, they don't look so nuts anymore. Do they?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/column...son&id=4526015

[Swifty]

What's crazy, at least to me, is the number of "experts" that would still take Pedroia over Coghlan if we're talking the next 5 years. Neyer, I'm looking at you.

[Ramp]

I would take Pedroia over Coghlan too

[Namaste]

Yeah I mean, Hairy Neck has had sustained proven success. Cogs may overtake him but....

[Swifty]

Really?

I mean, it's not that I hate Pedroia, I just think that in Coghlan you have roughly the same player with a favorable handedness and probably slightly more power potential. Give Coghlan the Monstah or take Pedroia out of Boston and I'd say Coghlan out-doubles Pedroia, too.

[FishFanInPA]

Some guy on Sporting News Today picked Coghlan too.

[Party]

Rosenthal
Stark
Some guy at the Sporting News
Neyer was still going with McCutchen as of September 8th according to Google.

Having those two on board is gon help Coghlan pull some voters away from the others.

[nny]

I don't know if I'd say Coghlan has more power potential. I also don't know if I'd say Pedroia has more power potential. I do know I'd say it likely won't make a lick of a difference because they'll likely always be around the same ISOs, neither is going to put up several 200 ISO (power hitter) seasons. Yeah playing in boston definitely will favor pedroia to the point where you can say their power is basically equal now even though Coghlan has a ISO of .137 and Pedroia's career is .145, and looking at their minor league numbers Coghlan has about a 10 point ISO advantage, I guess I'm just saying it's such a small amount that it doesn't really make a difference.

Coghlan also hasn't be stealing bases, though to be fair both have the same amount of SB in their rookie season (7).

I think offensively their basically break even. But there's also defense. There's question of Coghlan really being able to handle 2b, mean while Pedroia has a career UZR/150 of 7.

I'd probably take Coghlan for pure service time reasons (we still have 6 more years of Cogs)

[Swifty]

Coghlan hasn't been stealing bases because Fredi hasn't given him the green light. (Which is fucking stupid).

Cut him loose and he'll nab the 20 or so it seems Pedroia is good for.

[nny]

Also I had no idea Coghlan's OPS was up to .861

awesome

[Swifty]

I think those stats are as a leadoff hitter, and not his full season's body of work.

[nny]

You're right, my mistake.

Still, .842. So hoping he beats my modest .775 projections.

[FishFanInPA]

Rosenthal praising Cogz now. Says it's not even close.

[Ramp]

saying it isn't even close is stupid

Tommy Hanson is having an incredible season, as is Mr Happ