We're #29! We're #29!

[Beef]

Mary Brickell Village, no?

[lou]

Mary Brickell Village, no?

Sure. Whatever the hell it's called. I go there for happy hour, chinese food, and cougars. Not necessarily in that order.

[Namaste]

I wouldn't call in significant, but I also wouldn't call it insignificant.

I think that, with limited exception, if we don't handily surpass 1.5 mil next season, with the new stadium locked up, with the prices frozen for season tickets, with Hanley under contract and hopefully JJ as well, we really have to openly wonder about the health of this market.

You're still missing the point that it's going to take GENERATIONS to change baseball in South Florida. One of the teams biggest obstacles is the overwhelming amount of transplants who are rooting for everyone but the Marlins (see Yankee, Met, Cub, Philly fans etc).

Until many fathers who are Marlins fans have children who they raise as Marlins fans, the market will be unstable.



But it will happen.

[Party]

How is a ballpark with 37,000 seats going to be a 'consistent' 3 million draw? That would require 81 sellouts a season and a few games over 38K with SRO.

Boston is barely going to get over 3 million with a ballpark that is just a couple hundred seats from being the perfect comp for the new stadium.

And yes, when you start talking about consistent 3 million seasons and low seasons drawing near 28,000 a game you are vastly overstating the downtown + urban core effect. It is going to be very difficult for a franchise in a city that had a hard time selling out games for one of the greatest dynasties in college football history to pull those numbers. Miami is perhaps a top 5 market in terms of competition for the entertainment dollar. The ballpark is going to be one of the smallest in the league which restricts value seating more prevalent in places like Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Cleveland, Detroit (all bigger than Miami) that can help owners pad average attendance numbers.

Not even David Samson is forecasting anything as optimistic as that.

[Swifty]

If we can't get 1.5 mil now, there's no way we become a consistent 3 mil draw. None whatsoever. Even if you ignore the near mathematical impossibility, you know, because we don't think we can do 40K consistently, hence the 37 K seats, there's simply nothing that suggests Miami's going to do a 100% increase in a matter of years.

[Party]

Cleveland did it.

It isn't out of the realm of possibility that the FO times everything perfectly like the Blue Jays, Orioles and Indians did and the city falls head over heels for the ballpark and the team for a 4-5 year stretch draw nearly capacity but it isn't likely.

SkyDome was was influenced a lot by a very good + the stadium being the biggest thing to happen to Canada since hockey + the corporate community being heavily invested in that stadium (Jays drew 4 million for many seasons).

Camden Yards was supported by a top 5 market that includes the nation's capital and the 5 billion corporations, interest groups, and government sector employees that call the area home. PLUS it was the biggest advancement (regression) in stadium design since Yankee Stadium.

Jacobs Field was the second retro ballpark to open and it fielded one of the best teams of the last 25 years.

In all three scenarios a good (Orioles) to amazing team (Jays, Indians) and ballparks that revolutionized stadium design (SkyDome for a millisecond) became consistent 3 and 4 million draws.

[Swifty]

Admittedly, I don't know the ins and outs of the ballpark like some do, but are we really talking about a cutting edge facility?

Without any numbers in front of me, and without a real desire to see if my instinct is correct, I'd think that the situation we're in probably would most closely mirror Houston and what happened when they moved into (then) Enron. Nothing revolutionary about the facility, per se, and the biggest break through is getting into a true baseball stadium. I think that's probably what we're looking at. I don't see the absolute lustful fascination like Baltimore, or the market wide love affair like Toronto.

[Party]

This is going to be a regular ballpark. The exterior may be cutting edge for baseball but there is nothing special about the amenities and layout based on what I've seen in the memos and schematics.

You need $$$ for cutting edge.

[lou]

How is a ballpark with 37,000 seats going to be a 'consistent' 3 million draw? That would require 81 sellouts a season and a few games over 38K with SRO.

Boston is barely going to get over 3 million with a ballpark that is just a couple hundred seats from being the perfect comp for the new stadium.

And yes, when you start talking about consistent 3 million seasons and low seasons drawing near 28,000 a game you are vastly overstating the downtown + urban core effect. It is going to be very difficult for a franchise in a city that had a hard time selling out games for one of the greatest dynasties in college football history to pull those numbers. Miami is perhaps a top 5 market in terms of competition for the entertainment dollar. The ballpark is going to be one of the smallest in the league which restricts value seating more prevalent in places like Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Cleveland, Detroit (all bigger than Miami) that can help owners pad average attendance numbers.

Not even David Samson is forecasting anything as optimistic as that.

As with Swift, I know nothing compared to you about this stadium, I've been looking at attendance trends and the top 10 looks to be 3 mil, which is a number I don't think we would annually every approach. Just in he peak performance years. So ok, it's a little smaller stadium. So normal years 220, peak 280. Whatever.

I don't think asking for 35k fri-sat-sun, and say 23k mon-tues-weds-thurs, is really asking for that much to average that 28k. I don't like the UM example at all, as Miami is a private school with a low population and high "leave Miami" rate, many people don't embrace institutions they do not go to even if Miami has a lot of bandwagon fans, and if we're thinking demographically, what are you taking with 70% hispanic city population - football or baseball. UM is just an example of the bandwagon nature of this town around a winner. It's not an example of the Marlins getting sales.

This is going to work. Daft is right with the generations argument. People haven't been investing emotionally with the team because of the constant turmoil over the last 12 seasons. But now they can and the franchise can grow with the city. Everything is going to change. The only thing that's going to make this a failure is if we turn into the Pirates and lose for an entire decade.

[Fish Tank Frenzy]

In Miami Dade county the population epicenter is South West 88th St. Thats the center of over 3 million documented people. The majority of the wealth other than Miami Beach is in the South West portion of Miami Dade. Having the stadium closer to where the people live and have the money to spend is what will make this stadium work. You have Coral Gables, South Miami, Coconut Grove, Pinecrest, Palmetto Bay, Kendall all affluent neighborhoods with in 25 minutes of the new ballpark. Also, dont under estimate what the stadium can do to the surrounding area. This stadium can transform the surrounding area into a yuppie upscale neighborhood with bars, restaurants, condos and hotels. If that happens it will make the Marlins an event and we all know this is an event town.

Also, with the current stadium being closer to all of Broward's residents it is now time for Miami Dade residents to support this team. Joe Robbie Stadium is closer to residents of Pompano than it is for residents in Kendall, hell people in Boca are closer to the stadium than I am in Kendall.

Once the novelty of the new stadium wears off it will ultimately come down to whether the Marlins are winning or losing.

[Longview]

I couldnt imagine the surrounding area of that stadium as a yuppie, upscale neighborhood...not saying it wont happen, just looking at it now (im assuming its still the same as when the OB was there) i find it hard to believe that area could ever be considered upscale.

[Beef]

If it changes, it could be

[Longview]

The changes would have to be drastic

[Fish Tank Frenzy]

Check what home prices are going for in the surrounding area. The market around the OB is not tanking like everything else is tanking. The area around Camden Yards, Coors Field, Petco Park were all slighted areas that no one thought could be turned around.

[Party]

I couldnt imagine the surrounding area of that stadium as a yuppie, upscale neighborhood...not saying it wont happen, just looking at it now (im assuming its still the same as when the OB was there) i find it hard to believe that area could ever be considered upscale.

There was a gang war going on in the neighborhood surrounding Wrigley up until the mid 80s when rich white people decided living next to an 90 year old ballpark was considered cool.

In Miami, look no further than South Beach and a lesser extent Midtown on how an anchor (beach and PAC) can help transform a neighborhood.

A quasi-urban neighborhood with a stadium, done right, is a "I'm too cool for the burbs but don't want to live downtown" yuppie haven. The city now has to set policy that will help the area continue to develop.