2018 Trade Deadline Thread

[fish16]

Figured it made sense to start one since people are still posting in the offseason thread.

Random, but Dietrich quietly (at least to me cause ive been watching less lately) has been phenomenal since may 1. Just hoping that all these guys (him, Straily, maybe Urena, Bour, Castro, Barraclough) stay healthy and play well for 2 more months. Could make a big difference in values from now until then.

Where would you guys rank the value of our trade chips (those guys + JT)? I think I go JT, Bour, Barraclough, Straily, Urena, Castro.

[dim]

JT is the prime jewel.

Bour has hurt his value. He's still tradeable, but the team would be taking 60 cents on the dollar compared to what they could've gotten at the end of 2017.

Barraclough could net a back end top 100 prospect from a playoff team with closer problems. Barraclough will eventually be an All Star closer for some team.

Don't think the team tries to trade Straily. He's relatively cheap, consistent, and not a free agent until 2021.

Don't see too many teams biting on Castro because of the contract. They'll either have to eat at least half his contract and take mid tier prospects or just keep him on the team until he begs out.

Urena nets a low tier prospect at best. His value isn't great for a playoff team because he's a #4 starter and the best teams can go 3 deep in the starting rotation come the playoffs. I don't see him leaving.

Overall, the list goes
1. Realmuto
2. Barraclough
3. Straily (would be 2 but less likely to be traded).
4. Dietrich
5. Bour

After that it's smaller deals that are rarely worth noting. If the team wants to compete they have to hit on the future Realmuto trade. They had a chance at 1 of Soto/Robles/Kieboom and possibly 2 of them in a trade this offseason. Now Realmuto's value is higher but that trade isn't possible now. I'd be interested to see if they could get an equal value trade to that from another team come July.

[Nick]

I don't think Bour has hurt his trade value. Yeah his numbers aren't as good as last year, but if he stays healthy and puts up an OPS around .850 which is very reasonable considering where he's at right now, it'll be the best year of his career.

[fish16]

I think Bour's value is around the same as it was last year, and i think they might need to trade him for the best possible package at the deadline just because his style of DH power hitter is more valuable at the trade deadline than the winter meetings usually because of how many of his type of player is generally available for AL teams as 1b/DH options each offseason, although i havent looked and that might not be the case for free agents this upcoming offseason.

I think for Bour you maximize the return and maybe go for quality instead of quantity. I think we actually have decent depth (at least pitching wise) in the system for the first time in years and I think the rebuild would best be served if we go for maybe 1 really solid piece rather than 2-3 decent pieces. I also think teams can put the numbers he has put up into context because it is abundantly clear that teams are pitching around him a lot as pretty much our only power option in the lineup. His severely elevated BB numbers and decreased avg indicate that, but its a positive that he is taking what is given to him and still putting up very solid numbers. Plus he's been cold recently and he can get back up to the mid .800's OPS with a couple bombs.

[fish16]

Maybe im not watching enough and maybe this board just isnt active enough, but ill say it again, after a very rough start dietrich is showing what he did in spring and putting up really good numbers given his contractual status and positional flexibility to the point where i think we can get a really solid deal for him at the deadline.

Already up to an .801 OPS overall for the year after a .574 OPS for April. He has been pretty god awful in LF from what ive seen this year but the fact that he can play there, 2b, 3b, and maybe some 1b should only help his value at the deadline.

Its funny that these games until the trade deadline themselves are completely meaningless for the marlins overall, but individually they can be very important for our future depending on the performance of Castro, Dietrich, Bour, Straily, and Barraclough.

I think the overall hierarchy of trade value of our "available" veterans goes like this:

1) JT- 2 top 100 guys + 2 more solid legit prospects, one in the top 30 or so, and another towards the tail end of the top 100. Similar value to yelich because of positional value despite being under contract for fewer years.

2) Barraclough- i put him 2nd just because relievers like him who have had success in that particular year are more valuable at the trade deadline. His combination of success this year, team control, and the stupid value that teams might put on him if he continues this success as the closer until the deadline make him a very attractive target and one capable of getting us a good return not only because he attracts all contenders who need RP, but because he is also a great target for small market teams who want to contend not only this year but in the next few years to come. I think his value will be higher than it normally should because his market will be pretty large given his contractual status, and I think we can get a back half of the top 100 prospect for him. He is another guy i think we should prioritize quality over quantity for.

3)Straily- Im very interested to see what they do with the SP's between now and next opening day because they have kind of an overload of options but the options as of now look like guys who we would hope to become Straily type pitchers (or maybe a little better) instead of #1's. Maybe 1 surprises, but I could see us choosing either option of keeping straily because his trade value isnt worth his value to the team or just dealing him because we have so many other options. I think his value is 2-3 prospects, the top prospect in any deal being either just in the back of a top 100 list or right around there and another lower level deal. I wouldnt be mad either way because I trust Denbo though and can realistically see either choice being a smart decision.

4)- Bour- I think Bour is less valuable than Straily just because finding a quality SP with team control is hard, no matter if Straily isnt anything more than a #3 type guy at best, and also because I think there are more DH type guys available than quality SP's like Straily. Bour is the better player overall, IMO, but Straily has more value. I think Bours value can be either 1 back end top 100 guy or a guy right off the top 100 or 2-3 above average prospects. And as i said id prefer us go with quality over quantity for most of these remaining guys. I admittedly was skeptical a few weeks ago as far as whether we should trade him, but I think just being conservative and given his age and injury history it would be best to trade him at the deadline if we can get a suitable offer, which we should.

5) Dietrich- His value can be somewhat wide ranging due to it being very dependent on his performance over the next 2 months. HOpefully he can keep up this hot streak for a while, as a lefty who can play multiple positions and has several years of team control left can be attractive to both contenders this year and also to semi-contenders/small market teams this year. I think the 2nd wild card has helped sellers at the deadline a lot because it can make a lot of mediocre teams more optimistic than they realistically should be, the marlins being a key example of this in the latter years of the loria era. I'd 100% trade Dietrich at the deadline regardless of his performance because I think he will be a free agent before this rebuild hopefully works out and I think his value isnt too wide ranging even though I think his performance these next few months can vary his return somewhat.

6) Castro- I really dont think Starlin has all that much value unless we decide to eat his contract entirely which I would be in favor of, but also dont expect this new ownership group to do. He to me seems like a guy you just deal at the winter meetings if you think Isan Diaz is ready to take over the starting 2b job at the beginning of next year or very shortly after. His contract is just a little much given his production, and he seems more like a guy you keep closer to the end of his deal and eat a little money maybe at the winter meetings or at next years trade deadline.