New Mlb.com Top 30 is Out

[fish16]

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=mia

Discuss.

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So many of these guys were brought in from the draft last year until now. 18 of the 30 brought in from trades or being drafted since last years draft. Expected with all the guys we dealt, but finally we're starting to develop organizational depth after years of seasons being ruined due to 1-2 injuries. We'll see if it works out, but at the very least we're building a team with a plan that fits our market size.

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Also for whatever its worth the nats top 30 was updated too if people want to get a good idea of an updated scouting report on their system.

[tjfla]

Nice to see them giving guys like Braxton Lee and Devers some love. Finally looks like a real system but will be alot nicer come August Update.

MLB.com is still the worst for rankings but they do give good scouting reports/info

[lou]

Yea I mean they are going to acquire another 15-20 guys via new trades, draft, and maybe IFA, and that'll help with depth for sure, but I have to imagine 1, 3, 7, 9, 14, 15, 17, and 22 lose prospect status this year so that's a lot dropping off too.

Either way, the "club controlled" talent group is going to improve so that's all that matters.

Kolek being that low is just so sad. Nola or Rodon were right there.

[tjfla]

Yea I mean they are going to acquire another 15-20 guys via new trades, draft, and maybe IFA, and that'll help with depth for sure, but I have to imagine 1, 3, 7, 9, 14, 15, 17, and 22 lose prospect status this year so that's a lot dropping off too.

Either way, the "club controlled" talent group is going to improve so that's all that matters.

Kolek being that low is just so sad. Nola or Rodon were right there.

Ya Anderson,Brinson,Peters,Sierra,Lee,Alcantara are gonna be off but between draft and IFA they will be replaced. Martinez and 4 of Top 100 Picks should replace them

1 or 2 from IFA/At least 5 from Draft(the way MLB.com does it is weird so?)/2 maybe 3 in Top 20 but most will be 20-30 we get in trades

Surprised Kolek is that high actually. Nola,Rodon and Turner all were considered but they chose the 100+ FB. 20-30 are all "boom or bust" types. Any of the 10 could have a big year and move high up the list(Probably Devers or Soto)

[Lee Stone]

Curious

How do you see Alcantara moving up to the majors? I mean where's the success at getting minor league hitters out? You want to see less than three walks per nine and at least three K's per walk. Young Sandy is nowhere near there and may never get there. He's a very poor man's Andy Beltre right now, and Beltre didn't even rate top thirty (another mystery).

The guys getting dissed are Richards, Peters and C. Smith. Meyer too. How can their ages be held against them? Age would only matter if 21 and 22-year-olds improved in most cases. I've never known that to be even a likelihood. Guys who have control/command issues don't normally make them go away. Best comp I find for Alcantara is Brian Ellington.

[tjfla]

How do you see Alcantara moving up to the majors? I mean where's the success at getting minor league hitters out? You want to see less than three walks per nine and at least three K's per walk. Young Sandy is nowhere near there and may never get there. He's a very poor man's Andy Beltre right now, and Beltre didn't even rate top thirty (another mystery).

The guys getting dissed are Richards, Peters and C. Smith. Meyer too. How can their ages be held against them? Age would only matter if 21 and 22-year-olds improved in most cases. I've never known that to be even a likelihood. Guys who have control/command issues don't normally make them go away. Best comp I find for Alcantara is Brian Ellington.

MLB.com sucks for rankings. They factor in where u were drafted and projection. Rankings problem with Richards,Peters,Smith,Meyer are they nothing flashy and older already which means not much more projection. If Richards was 21/22 he would be same as Neidert. If Peters was 6'3 instead of 5'9 he would be higher

U don't have to convince me about Beltre-he has looked great since coming back from TJ and should be in pen next year(If didn't miss so long he might already be up). Another arm to watch if they keep him as a RP is Jorgan Cavaneiro-he looked great in the pen

[Erick]

How do you see Alcantara moving up to the majors? I mean where's the success at getting minor league hitters out? You want to see less than three walks per nine and at least three K's per walk. Young Sandy is nowhere near there and may never get there. He's a very poor man's Andy Beltre right now, and Beltre didn't even rate top thirty (another mystery).

The guys getting dissed are Richards, Peters and C. Smith. Meyer too. How can their ages be held against them? Age would only matter if 21 and 22-year-olds improved in most cases. I've never known that to be even a likelihood. Guys who have control/command issues don't normally make them go away. Best comp I find for Alcantara is Brian Ellington.

You’re not evaluating prospects correctly if that’s the case.

[Lee Stone]

I assume the best prospects are those most likely to have a favorable impact on a major league team. Is that incorrect?

[lou]

Age of competition matters. There is a big difference between a 22 year old and a 24 year old in AA. Playing against people who have been a professional 2 years longer than you is a big deal at those ages.

Yusmiero Petit put together a dominant AA year at 24 years of age in 2005 - http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...e.asp?ID=45589. He is a pretty whatever reliever. Just because you get outs in a certain place doesn't mean your skills translate. He threw soft garbage and had the control to get AA hitters out, and that hasn't transferred much to the bigs (but good for him for having a real solid career and getting paid). Alcantara, his stuff will transfer and will be an impact player if he makes it much more so than Petit.

The worst example is Hermida had an all world AA season because he had a plus eye skill and got walked out of bad situations. No one really thought about that when he was coming up, and how he just sat on breaking balls to hammer or would opt to walk if he didn't get one. Fastball locations at the MLB level caught up to him incredibly quickly, unfortunately for all of us.

There is something to be said about the plethora of stats available and seeing guys with a nice OBP and WHIP, but there is also something to be said how guys are going to translate those abilities to higher levels of competition. A deception pitcher reliant on a breaking ball may max out at the next level up, while someone like Alcantara can be a one pitch pitcher and get guys out if that one pitch is thrown for strikes 70% of the time. Let alone if the slider and change develop.

I think you need to read more into the scouting reports. Guys can have worse stats at a given level and still be a significantly better prospects. I think recently, the new uppercut swingers like Alonso and D. Murphy prove this significantly. We're in an era where some small swing tweaks/approach and just hitting things in the air rapidly caused a bonanza of offense after a pitcher dominated run of some years. That's not in the stats. Who the hell is Tommy Pham really?

Your boy Beltre may be under rated, but it's a bit much to basically declare him a backend top 100 prospect which is what Alcantara is pretty much universally considered.

In any event, future bullpen looks cool

[Lee Stone]

Age of competition matters. There is a big difference between a 22 year old and a 24 year old in AA. Playing against people who have been a professional 2 years longer than you is a big deal at those ages.

Yusmiero Petit put together a dominant AA year at 24 years of age in 2005 - http://www.thebaseballcube.com/playe...e.asp?ID=45589. He is a pretty whatever reliever. Just because you get outs in a certain place doesn't mean your skills translate. He threw soft garbage and had the control to get AA hitters out, and that hasn't transferred much to the bigs (but good for him for having a real solid career and getting paid). Alcantara, his stuff will transfer and will be an impact player if he makes it much more so than Petit.

The worst example is Hermida had an all world AA season because he had a plus eye skill and got walked out of bad situations. No one really thought about that when he was coming up, and how he just sat on breaking balls to hammer or would opt to walk if he didn't get one. Fastball locations at the MLB level caught up to him incredibly quickly, unfortunately for all of us.

There is something to be said about the plethora of stats available and seeing guys with a nice OBP and WHIP, but there is also something to be said how guys are going to translate those abilities to higher levels of competition. A deception pitcher reliant on a breaking ball may max out at the next level up, while someone like Alcantara can be a one pitch pitcher and get guys out if that one pitch is thrown for strikes 70% of the time. Let alone if the slider and change develop.

I think you need to read more into the scouting reports. Guys can have worse stats at a given level and still be a significantly better prospects. I think recently, the new uppercut swingers like Alonso and D. Murphy prove this significantly. We're in an era where some small swing tweaks/approach and just hitting things in the air rapidly caused a bonanza of offense after a pitcher dominated run of some years. That's not in the stats. Who the hell is Tommy Pham really?

Your boy Beltre may be under rated, but it's a bit much to basically declare him a backend top 100 prospect which is what Alcantara is pretty much universally considered.

In any event, future bullpen looks cool

To be clear, I didn't suggest that Andy Beltre was a top prospect, not at all. I merely pointed out that he is better at keeping runners off base than Alcantara. Nor do I believe that AA success automatically translates to major league success. However, poor results at AA kind of guarantee that a guy is not ready for The Show.

[fish16]

To be clear, I didn't suggest that Andy Beltre was a top prospect, not all. I merely pointed out that he is better at keeping runners off base than Alcantara. Nor do I believe that AA success automatically translates to major league success. However, poor results at AA kind of guarantee that a guy is not ready for The Show.

First off, Beltre is a reliever and its much easier to put up quality numbers as a reliever than as a starter. Second, Alcantara is 2-3 years younger than Beltre and as Lou pointed out, that is a huge difference. Might not seem like it is, but it is. Also, Alcantara is not nearly as bad in the minors as youre making him out to be.